Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-451-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-451-2026
Research article
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06 May 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 06 May 2026

Quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on the record-high temperatures in 2023 and 2024

Endre Z. Farago, Laura A. McBride, Brian F. Bennett, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, and Ross J. Salawitch

Data sets

EM-GC Input and Output files for "Quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural Factors on the record-high temperatures in 2023 and 2024" E. Farago et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17228105

IPCC Working Group 1 (WG1) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Annex III Extended Data (v1.0) C. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5705391

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Editorial statement
This is a topic of strong interest to the general public, with several explanations for the warm conditions having been suggested. The paper makes a very useful and novel contribution through its attribution of much of the warm anomaly to a combination of individual anthropogenic and natural factors and the suggestion of a significant contribution from the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Short summary
Global mean surface temperature anomalies in 2023 and 2024 were the highest on the modern record. We quantify contributions to these anomalies from human activity, including the steep reduction in sulfur emissions from ships that began in 2020, and numerous natural factors. We attribute about 92% of the observed anomalies to a combination of various human-induced and natural factors, including important contributions from the reduction in marine sulfur emissions and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
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