Articles | Volume 17, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1649-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1649-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Nov 2026
Research article |
| 11 Nov 2026
| 11 Nov 2026
Combining different views on internal climate variability of temperature over Europe
Herijaona Hani-Roge Hundilida Randriatsara
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague, V Holešovičkách 2, 18000, Prague 8, Czech Republic
Eva Holtanová
Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague, V Holešovičkách 2, 18000, Prague 8, Czech Republic
Jiří Mikšovský
Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague, V Holešovičkách 2, 18000, Prague 8, Czech Republic
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We introduce Functional Data Analysis (FDA) as a new approach to diagnose changes in the temperature seasonal cycle. FDA allows the analysis without needing any prior assumptions about the cycle shape. We evaluate past and future changes based on two reanalyses and five CMIP6 models. We discuss regions of robust changes with datasets’ agreement, e.g., a delayed maximum in the south and east of Europe, while highlighting areas of larger dataset differences, mainly in polar and equatorial regions.
Herijaona Hani-Roge Hundilida Randriatsara, Eva Holtanova, Karim Rizwan, Hassen Babaousmail, Mirindra Finaritra Tanteliniaina Rabezanahary, Kokou Romaric Posset, Donnata Alupot, and Brian Odhiambo Ayugi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2939–2961, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2939-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2939-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought (duration, frequency, severity, intensity) over Madagascar during 1981–2022 by using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3, SPI-6, and SPI-12). Additionally, impacts of drought on vegetation over the studied area were assessed based on an evaluation of the relationship between SPI and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) during 2000–2022.
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Short summary
This study aims to compare different datasets and methods to estimate Internal climate variability (ICV) magnitudes from seasonal and annual mean near-surface air temperature that could serve as benchmarks for assessing regional climate simulations over Europe. Additionally, the spatio-temporal characteristics of ICV estimates were assessed and discussed over Europe during both historical (1971–2000) and future period (2070–2099).
This study aims to compare different datasets and methods to estimate Internal climate...
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