Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1151-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1151-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
Research article
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25 Aug 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 25 Aug 2026

Historical Climate and Future Projection in the North Atlantic and Arctic: Insights from EC-Earth3 High-Resolution Simulations

Mehdi Pasha Karami, Torben Koenigk, Shiyu Wang, René Navarro Labastida, Tim Kruschke, Aude Carréric, Pablo Ortega, Klaus Wyser, Ramon Fuentes Franco, Agatha M. de Boer, Marie Sicard, and Aitor Aldama Campino

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Editorial statement
The manuscript's findings of improved sea-ice cover accuracy and the quickness of future declines is of interest to a general audience. In addition, the complexity of the relationship between deep water formation and the over-all AMOC strength is an important aspect of the science that should be understood by a general audience when AMOC declines and its associated climate impact is discussed.
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Short summary
This study uses a high-resolution global climate model to simulate future climate, with a particular focus on the Arctic and North Atlantic. The model projects a nearly ice-free Arctic by 2040. The paper also introduces a framework to diagnose deep-water formation (DWF) in the Labrador, Irminger, and Greenland Seas and to quantify their regional contributions to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), revealing how different ocean regions contribute to the weakening of AMOC in a warming climate.
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