Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1135-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1135-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
17 Aug 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 17 Aug 2026
| 17 Aug 2026
Hysteresis and irreversibility in permafrost physical response to increase and decrease of CO2 emissions
Natsuki Watanabe
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI), The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, 2770882, Japan
Masahiro Watanabe
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI), The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, 2770882, Japan
Tomohiro Hajima
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, 2360001, Japan
Tokuta Yokohata
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, 3058506, Japan
Irina Melnikova
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, 3058506, Japan
Related authors
No articles found.
Colin Jones, Isaline Bossert, Donovan P. Dennis, Hazel A. Jeffery, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Sina Loriani, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Manabu Abe, Sebastian Bathiany, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Patrica Cadule, Frederic S. Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Andrea Dittus, Jonathan F. Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Goran Georgievski, Chuncheng Guo, Aixue Hu, Peter Lawrence, Paul Lerner, José Licón-Saláiz, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Anastasia Romanou, Elena Shevliakova, Yona Silvy, Didier Swingedouw, Jerry Tjiputra, Jeremy Walton, Andy Wiltshire, Ricarda Winkelmann, Richard Wood, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 6941–6966, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a new Earth system model experiment protocol to help researchers understand how Earth might respond to positive, zero, and negative carbon emissions. This protocol enables different models to be compared following similar warming and cooling rates. Researchers use the models to explore how the Earth reacts to different climate futures, including the risk of tipping points being exceeded and whether changes can be reversed. The results will support improved long-term climate policy.
Amen Al-Yaari, Chris Smith, Yi Yao, Kjetil S. Aas, L. Ruby Leung, Min-Hui Lo, Sonali McDermid, Larissa Nazarenko, Yadu Pokhrel, Yusuke Satoh, Tokuta Yokohata, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4199, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we use the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP) to provide the first multi-model quantification of irrigation-induced effective radiative forcing (ERF) across seven Earth system models over 1902–2014. We find that the global multi-model mean ERF is positive but small (~0.023 W m⁻²). This small global signal masks regional heterogeneity: South Asia and West Central Asia show higher positive ERF (~0.25 W m⁻²), while East Asia shows a negative signal (−0.03 W m⁻²).
Didier Swingedouw, Laura Jackson, Aixue Hu, Anastasia Romanou, Nicole C. Laureanti, Wilbert Weijer, Sina Loriani, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Lucas Almeida, Alessio Bellucci, Reyk Börner, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Donovan P. Dennis, Marion Devilliers, Sybren Drijfhout, Jonathan Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas L. Frölicher, Guillaume Gastineau, Heiko Goelzer, Chuncheng Guo, Urs Hofmann, Anna Höse, Colin Jones, Torben Koenigk, Ann Kristin Klose, Valerio Lembo, Jose Licon-Salaiz, Ken Mankoff, Virna Meccia, Irina Melnikova, Oliver Mehling, Laurie Menviel, Juliette Mignot, Jon I. Robson, Gavin A. Schmidt, Robin Smith, Yuchen Sun, Irene Trombini, Matteo Willeit, Richard Wood, Fanghua Wu, Lin Zhaohui, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1698, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a plan for climate model experiments to better understand how changes in freshwater in the North Atlantic affect major ocean currents. We designed coordinated simulations to test their response to warming, added freshwater, and possible recovery after weakening. Comparing results across models and past climate evidence helps improve confidence in projections and assess risks of large ocean circulation changes.
Abigail L. S. Swann, Charles D. Koven, Cristian Proistosecu, Rosie A. Fisher, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Nancy Y. Kiang, David M. Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Hannah Liddy, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Norman J. Steinert, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1673, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed simulations from Earth system models (ESM) with a constant rate of emissions, zero emissions, and negative emissions of CO2 to quantify the response of land carbon sinks. We found that under positive emissions vegetation in the tropics gained carbon. Under zero emissions and negative emissions most ESMs lost carbon from vegetation in the tropics but gained carbon in mid- and high-latitudes, mostly in soils. Our findings imply that tropical carbon is vulnerable under zero emissions.
Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Brian C. O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Louise P. Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh M. N. Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew J. Gidden, Laila K. Gohar, Annika Högner, Andrew D. Jones, Jarmo Kikstra, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camilla Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Zebedee Nicholls, Luciana F. Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven K. Rose, Alex C. Ruane, Marit Sandstad, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna A. Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha S. Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, Marco Zecchetto, and Tilo Ziehn
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2627–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2627-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a set of seven plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Paulo Ceppi, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Mark D. Zelinka, Timothy Andrews, Florent Brient, Robin Chadwick, Jonathan M. Gregory, Yen-Ting Hwang, Sarah M. Kang, Jennifer E. Kay, Thorsten Mauritsen, Tomoo Ogura, George Tselioudis, Masahiro Watanabe, Mark J. Webb, and Allison A. Wing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-398, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds constitute a key uncertainty for climate change projections. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) aims to address this challenge by evaluating and understanding clouds and their impacts on atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and climate sensitivity. The present paper describes the CFMIP experiment protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), and discusses the accompanying science questions and opportunities for progress.
Hidetaka Kobayashi, Tokuta Yokohata, Akitomo Yamamoto, Tomohiro Hajima, Hiroaki Tatebe, Akira Oka, and Keith B. Rodgers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-120, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Using long-term MIROC-ES2L simulations under extended SSP scenarios to 2500, we show that ocean–atmosphere pCO2 disequilibrium exhibits strong scenario dependence. Low emissions lead to near equilibrium by 2100, whereas high emissions drive expanding oceanic CO2 supersaturation and declining buffering capacity. Marine ecosystem stress persists for centuries, reflecting the ocean’s long memory and limited reversibility.
Victor Brovkin, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Noel G. Brizuela, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Hongmei Li, Spencer Liddcoat, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, Tilo Ziehn, and Alexander J. Winkler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 2021–2034, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Idealized experiments with Earth system models provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to emissions. We show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean and hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. We reduce the coupled system to only one differential equation, which represents a powerful simplification of the Earth system dynamics as a function of fossil fuel emissions.
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.21 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasize the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Lukas Gudmundsson, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers, and data users.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
Biogeosciences, 22, 1447–1473, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations (CO2 concentration- and emission-driven experiments). We successfully identified problems with regard to the global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues with regard to land use change CO2 emissions that should be solved in the latest generation of models.
Irina Melnikova, Philippe Ciais, Katsumasa Tanaka, Hideo Shiogama, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tokuta Yokohata, and Olivier Boucher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 257–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases is important alongside CO2 for climate mitigation. Here, we look at how reducing their emissions compares to reducing CO2 using an Earth system model. While both types of gases contribute to warming, their regional climate impacts differ. Besides, the carbon cycle responds differently depending on whether climate change is driven by CO2 or non-CO2 gases. Considering both types of gases is important for carbon cycle analysis and climate mitigation strategies.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tokuta Yokohata, Katsumasa Tanaka, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jun'ya Takakura, Rintaro Yamaguchi, and Weiwei Xiong
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1640, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
We created a new model combining socioeconomic data and climate projections. Using multiple future scenarios, we calculated new costs for reducing emissions, estimated damage based on the latest impacts, and extended our analysis to the year 2450. Our results show different ways to control emissions and their effects on future temperatures. This highlights the importance of adapting climate policies to different economic growth scenarios for better long-term planning.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Hideo Shiogama, Hiroaki Tatebe, Michiya Hayashi, Manabu Abe, Miki Arai, Hiroshi Koyama, Yukiko Imada, Yu Kosaka, Tomoo Ogura, and Masahiro Watanabe
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1107–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We produced one of the largest single model initial-condition ensembles thus far using the MIROC6 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model (MIROC6-LE). MIROC6-LE includes historical simulations, eight single forcing historical experiments, five future scenario experiments and three single forcing future experiments with 10- or 50-ensemble members. We describe the experimental design and show initial analyses. This dataset would be useful to a wide range of research communities.
Naveen Chandra, Prabir K. Patra, Yousuke Niwa, Akihiko Ito, Yosuke Iida, Daisuke Goto, Shinji Morimoto, Masayuki Kondo, Masayuki Takigawa, Tomohiro Hajima, and Michio Watanabe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9215–9243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is intended to accomplish two goals: (1) quantify mean and uncertainty in non-fossil-fuel CO2 fluxes estimated by inverse modeling and (2) provide in-depth analyses of regional CO2 fluxes in support of emission mitigation policymaking. CO2 flux variability and trends are discussed concerning natural climate variability and human disturbances using multiple lines of evidence.
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The deployment of bioenergy crops for capturing carbon from the atmosphere facilitates global warming mitigation via generating negative CO2 emissions. Here, we explored the consequences of large-scale energy crops deployment on the land carbon cycle. The land-use change for energy crops leads to carbon emissions and loss of future potential increase in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems. This impact should be taken into account by the modeling teams and accounted for in mitigation policies.
Cited articles
An, S. I., Shin, J., Yeh, S. W., Son, S. W., Kug, J. S., Min, S. K., and Kim, H. J.: Global Cooling Hiatus Driven by an AMOC Overshoot in a Carbon Dioxide Removal Scenario, Earth's Future, 9, 7, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002165, 2021.
Boucher, O., Halloran, P. R., Burke, E. J., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Jones, C. D., Lowe, J., Ringer, M. A., Robertson, E., and Wu, P.: Reversibility in an Earth System model in response to CO2 concentration changes, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 2, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024013, 2012.
Brovkin, V., Bartsch, A., Hugelius, G., Calamita, E., Jelle Lever, J., Goo, E., Kim, H., Stacke, T., and de Vrese, P.: Permafrost and Freshwater Systems in the Arctic as Tipping Elements of the Climate System, Surv. Geophys., 46, 303–326, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-025-09885-9, 2025.
Burke, E. J., Ekici, A., Huang, Y., Chadburn, S. E., Huntingford, C., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Peng, S. S., and Krinner, G.: Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks, Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, 2017.
Burke, E. J., Chadburn, S. E., Huntingford, C., and Jones, C. D.: CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138, 2018.
Burke, E. J., Zhang, Y., and Krinner, G.: Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change, The Cryosphere, 14, 3155–3174, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, 2020.
Canadell, J. G. and Monteiro, P. M. S.: Global carbon and other biogeochemical cycles and feedbacks, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., et al., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 673–816, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.007, 2021.
Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Bunton, C. B., Essery, R. L. H., Rowntree, P. R., and Smith, J.: The impact of new land surface physics on the GCM simulation of climate and climate sensitivity, Clim. Dynam., 15, 183–203, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050276, 1999.
Eliseev, A. V., Demchenko, P. F., Arzhanov, M. M., and Mokhov, I. I.: Transient hysteresis of near-surface permafrost response to external forcing, Clim. Dynam., 42, 1203–1215, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1672-5, 2014.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Guo, Q., Kino, K., Li, S., Nitta, T., and Takeshima, A.: Description of MATSIRO6, CCSR Report, 66, 1–95, https://doi.org/10.15083/0002000181, 2021.
Hajima, T., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Tatebe, H., Noguchi, M. A., Abe, M., Ohgaito, R., Ito, A., Yamazaki, D., Okajima, H., Ito, A., Takata, K., Ogochi, K., Watanabe, S., and Kawamiya, M.: Development of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and the evaluation of biogeochemical processes and feedbacks, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2197–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2197-2020, 2020.
Hollesen, J., Matthiesen, H., Moller, A. B., and Elberling, B.: Permafrost thawing in organic Arctic soils accelerated by ground heat production, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 574–578, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2590, 2015.
Hugelius, G., Strauss, J., Zubrzycki, S., Harden, J. W., Schuur, E. A. G., Ping, C. L., Schirrmeister, L., Grosse, G., Michaelson, G. J., Koven, C. D., O'Donnell, J. A., Elberling, B., Mishra, U., Camill, P., Yu, Z., Palmtag, J., and Kuhry, P.: Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps, Biogeosciences, 11, 6573–6593, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, 2014.
Hugelius, G., Ramage, J., Burke, E., Chatterjee, A., Smallman, T., Aalto, T., Bastos, A., Biasi, C., Canadell, J., Chandra, N., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Chang, J., Feng, L., Jones, M., Kleinen, T., Kuhn, M., Lauerwald, R., Liu, J., López-Blanco, E., Luijkx, I., Marushchak, M., Natali, S., Niwa, Y., Olefeldt, D., Palmer, P., Patra, P., Peters, W., Potter, S., Poulter, B., Rogers, B., Riley, W., Saunois, M., Schuur, E., Thompson, R., Treat, C., Tsuruta, A., Turetsky, M., Virkkala, A., Voigt, C., Watts, J., Zhu, Q., and Zheng, B.: Permafrost Region Greenhouse Gas Budgets Suggest a Weak CO2 Sink and CH4 and N2O Sources, But Magnitudes Differ Between Top-Down and Bottom-Up Methods, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 38, 10, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GB007969, 2024.
Koven, C. D., Arora, V. K., Cadule, P., Fisher, R. A., Jones, C. D., Lawrence, D. M., Lewis, J., Lindsay, K., Mathesius, S., Meinshausen, M., Mills, M., Nicholls, Z., Sanderson, B. M., Séférian, R., Swart, N. C., Wieder, W. R., and Zickfeld, K.: Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 885–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, 2022.
Lenton, T. M.: Arctic climate tipping points, AMBIO, 41, 10–22, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-011-0221-x, 2012.
Lenton, T., Mckay, D, I, A., Loriani, S., Abrams, J., Lade, S., Donges, J., Buxton, J., Milkoreit, M., Powell, T., Smith, S. R., Zimm, C., Bailey, E., Dyke, J., Ghadiali, A., and Laybourn, L.: Global Tipping Points Report 2023, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15188118, 2023.
Luke, C. M. and Cox, P. M.: Soil carbon and climate change: from the Jenkinson effect to the compost-bomb instability, Eur. J. Soil Sci., 62, 5–12, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2389.2010.01312.x, 2011
McKay, D. I. A., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockstrom, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Science, 377, 6611, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022.
Obu, J.: How Much of the Earth's Surface is Underlain by Permafrost?, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 126, e2021JF006123, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006123, 2021.
Ito, A. and Inatomi, M.: Water-use efficiency of the terrestrial biosphere: A model analysis focusing on interactions between the global carbon and water cycles, J. Hydrometeorol., 13, 681–694, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-10-05034.1, 2012.
Jackson, L. C., Schaller, N., Smith, R. S., Palmer, M. D., and Vellinga, M.: Response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to a reversal of greenhouse gas increases, Clim. Dynam., 42, 3323–3336, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1842-5, 2014.
Park, S. W. and Kug, J. S.: A decline in atmospheric CO2 levels under negative emissions may enhance carbon retention in the terrestrial biosphere, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 1, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00621-4, 2022.
Park, S. W., Mun, J. H., Lee, H., Steinert, N. J., An, S. I., Shin, J., and Kug, J. S.: Continued permafrost ecosystem carbon loss under net-zero and negative emissions, Sci. Adv., 11, 7, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adn8819, 2025.
Ping, C. L., Michaelson, G. J., Jorgenson, M. T., Kimble, J. M., Epstein, H., Romanovsky, V. E., and Walker, D. A.: High stocks of soil organic carbon in the North American Arctic region, Nat. Geosci., 1, 615–619, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo284, 2008.
Poggio, L., de Sousa, L. M., Batjes, N. H., Heuvelink, G. B. M., Kempen, B., Ribeiro, E., and Rossiter, D.: SoilGrids 2.0: producing soil information for the globe with quantified spatial uncertainty, SOIL, 7, 217–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-7-217-2021, 2021.
Saito, K.: Arctic land hydrothermal sensitivity under warming: Idealized off-line evaluation of a physical terrestrial scheme in a global climate model, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D21106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009880, 2008.
Sanderson, B. M., Booth, B. B., Dunne, J., Eyring, V., Fisher, R. A., Friedlingstein, P., Gidden, M. J., Hajima, T., Jones, C. D., Jones, C. G., King, A., Koven, C. D., Lawrence, D. M., Lowe, J., Mengis, N., Peters, G. P., Rogelj, J., Smith, C., Snyder, A. C., Simpson, I. R., Swann, A. L. S., Tebaldi, C., Ilyina, T., Schleussner, C. F., Séférian, R., Samset, B. H., van Vuuren, D., and Zaehle, S.: The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Saito, K., Machiya, H., Iwahana, G., Ohno, H., and Yokohata, T.: Mapping simulated circum-Arctic organic carbon, ground ice, and vulnerability of ice-rich permafrost to degradation, Prog. Earth Planet. Sci., 7, 1, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00345-z, 2020.
Schiedung, M., Bellè, S.-L., Malhotra, A., and Abiven, S.: Organic carbon stocks, quality and prediction in permafrost-affected forest soils in North Canada, Catena, 213, 106194, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2022.106194, 2022.
Schuur, E. A. G., Bockheim, J., Canadell, J. G., Euskirchen, E., Field, C. B., Goryachkin, S. V., Hagemann, S., Kuhry, P., Lafleur, P. M., Lee, H., Mazhitova, G., Nelson, F. E., Rinke, A., Romanovsky, V. E., Shiklomanov, N., Tarnocai, C., Venevsky, S., Vogel, J. G., and Zimov, S. A.: Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: Implications for the global carbon cycle, Bioscience, 58, 701–714, https://doi.org/10.1641/B580807, 2008.
Schuur, E. A. G., McGuire, A. D., Schädel, C., Grosse, G., Harden, J. W., Hayes, D. J., Hugelius, G., Koven, C. D., Kuhry, P., Lawrence, D. M., Natali, S. M., Olefeldt, D., Romanovsky, V. E., Schaefer, K., Turetsky, M. R., Treat, C. C., and Vonk, J. E.: Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback, Nature, 520, 171–179, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14338, 2015.
Schuur, E. A. G., Abbott, B. W., Commane, R., Ernakovich, J., Euskirchen, E., Hugelius, G., Grosse, G., Jones, M., Koven, C., Leshyk, V., Lawrence, D., Loranty, M. M., Mauritz, M., Olefeldt, D., Natali, S., Rodenhizer, H., Salmon, V., Schädel, C., Strauss, J., Treat, C., and Turetsky, M.: Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 47, 343–371, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847, 2022.
Schaefer, K., Lantuit, H., Romanovsky, V. E., Schuur, E. A. G., and Witt, R.: The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 8, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/085003, 2014.
Takata, K., Emori, S., and Watanabe, T.: Development of the minimal advanced treatments of surface interaction and runoff, Glob. Planet Change, 38, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00030-4 , 2003.
Tarnocai, C., Canadell, J. G., Schuur, E. A. G., Kuhry, P., Mazhitova, G., and Zimov, S.: Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003327, 2009.
Yamamoto, A., Hajima, T., Yamazaki, D., Aita, M., Ito, A., and Kawamiya, M.: Competing and accelerating effects of anthropogenic nutrient inputs on climate-driven changes in ocean carbon and oxygen cycles, Sci. Adv., 8, 22, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abl9207, 2022.
Yokohata, T., Saito, K., Ito, A., Ohno, H., Tanaka, K., Hajima, T., and Iwahata, G.: Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model, Prog. Earth Pl. Sci., 7, 56, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8, 2020a.
Yokohata, T., Saito, K., Takata, K., Nitta, T., Satoh, Y., Hajima, T., Sueyoshi, T., and Iwahana, G.: Model improvement and future projection of permafrost processes in a global land surface model, Prog. Earth Pl. Sci., 7, 1, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00380-w, 2020b.
Watanabe, M., Suzuki, T., O'ishi, R., Komuro, Y., Watanabe, S., Emori, S., Takemura, T., Chikira, M., Ogura, T., Sekiguchi, M., Takata, K., Yamazaki, D., Yokohata, T., Nozawa, T., Hasumi, H., Tatebe, H., and Kimoto, M.: Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5. Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity, J. Climate, 23, 6312–6335, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3679.1, 2010.
Watanabe, N.: MIROC-ES2L data for “Hysteresis and irreversibility in permafrost physical response to increase and decrease of CO2 emissions”, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21619154, 2026.
Watanabe, S., Hajima, T., Sudo, K., Nagashima, T., Takemura, T., Okajima, H., Nozawa, T., Kawase, H., Abe, M., Yokohata, T., Ise, T., Sato, H., Kato, E., Takata, K., Emori, S., and Kawamiya, M.: MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 845–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011, 2011.
Wu, P. L., Jackson, L., Pardaens, A., and Schaller, N.: Extended warming of the northern high latitudes due to an overshoot of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049998, 2011.
Editorial statement
This paper finds that hysteresis and partial irreversibility in permafrost thawing result in a potentially large increase in cumulative carbon emissions from permafrost. This highlights the risks that come with overshoot scenarios, and the processes that may counteract the expected decrease in temperatures in the later part of such scenarios.
This paper finds that hysteresis and partial irreversibility in permafrost thawing result in a...
Short summary
We investigated a response of permafrost using an Earth system model driven by an idealized overshooting carbon emission scenario, and found that the permafrost response to warming and cooling is reversible in the area but irreversible in its property. The permafrost response shows hysteresis, arising from a slow soil response tied to heat conductivity and specific heat of water phase change. A carbon release from thawed permafrost accounts for 0.6–41% of the cumulative carbon emission.
We investigated a response of permafrost using an Earth system model driven by an idealized...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint