Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1135-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1135-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
Research article
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17 Aug 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 17 Aug 2026

Hysteresis and irreversibility in permafrost physical response to increase and decrease of CO2 emissions

Natsuki Watanabe, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomohiro Hajima, Tokuta Yokohata, and Irina Melnikova

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Editorial statement
This paper finds that hysteresis and partial irreversibility in permafrost thawing result in a potentially large increase in cumulative carbon emissions from permafrost. This highlights the risks that come with overshoot scenarios, and the processes that may counteract the expected decrease in temperatures in the later part of such scenarios.
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Short summary
We investigated a response of permafrost using an Earth system model driven by an idealized overshooting carbon emission scenario, and found that the permafrost response to warming and cooling is reversible in the area but irreversible in its property. The permafrost response shows hysteresis, arising from a slow soil response tied to heat conductivity and specific heat of water phase change. A carbon release from thawed permafrost accounts for 0.6–41% of the cumulative carbon emission.
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