Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1061-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1061-2026
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
07 Aug 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 07 Aug 2026

New insights into decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic revealed by data-driven dynamical models

Andrew J. Nicoll, Hannah M. Christensen, Chris Huntingford, and Doug Smith

Data sets

ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

ERA-20C Project (ECMWF Atmospheric Reanalysis of the 20th Century) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts https://doi.org/10.5065/D6VQ30QG

Interactive computing environment

Data-driven dynamical models of the North Atlantic Andrew Nicoll https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17856484

Download
Editorial statement
This paper presents data-driven equation discovery as a powerful scientific method to study climate variability, and thereby exemplifies how machine-learning methods do not only work as black boxes, but can also help us better understand complex Earth system dynamics.
Short summary
We use artificial intelligence to learn simple equations from historical climate data that describe how North Atlantic ocean temperature, air pressure and rainfall vary and influence each other over decades. Analysing the model's behaviour and equation terms, we find rainfall strongly feeds back on both the ocean and the atmosphere. These interactions are well captured by the models and allow rainfall to be predicted over the ocean, and nearby regions such as Europe over coming decades.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint