Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-607-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-607-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 2
Research article
 | 
24 Apr 2025
Research article |  | 24 Apr 2025

Constraining uncertainty in projected precipitation over land with causal discovery

Kevin Debeire, Lisa Bock, Peer Nowack, Jakob Runge, and Veronika Eyring

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Short summary
Projecting future precipitation is essential for preparing for climate change, but current climate models still have large uncertainties, especially over land. This study presents a new method to improve precipitation projections by identifying which models best capture key climate patterns. By giving more weight to models that better represent these patterns, our approach leads to more reliable future precipitation projections over land.
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