Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025
Research article
 | 
18 Feb 2025
Research article |  | 18 Feb 2025

Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability

Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel

Related authors

Datasets and protocols for including anomalous freshwater from melting ice sheets in climate simulations
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anne Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1940,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1940, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Changes in Antarctic surface conditions and potential for ice shelf hydrofracturing from 1850 to 2200
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Gaël Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 1641–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, 2025
Short summary
Future changes in Antarctic near-surface winds: regional variability and key drivers under a high-emission scenario
Cécile Davrinche, Anaïs Orsi, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Cécile Agosta
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1419,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1419, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Exploring the Greenland Ice Sheet's response to future atmospheric warming-threshold scenarios over 200 years
Alison Delhasse, Christoph Kittel, and Johanna Beckmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-709,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-709, 2025
Short summary
GOSI9: UK Global Ocean and Sea Ice configurations
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Adusumilli, S., Fricker, H. A., Medley, B., Padman, L., and Siegfried, M. R.: Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves, Nat. Geosci., 13, 616–620, 2020. a, b, c
Agosta, C., Favier, V., Krinner, G., Gallée, H., Fettweis, X., and Genthon, C.: High-resolution modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance, application for the twentieth, twenty first and twenty second centuries, Clim. Dynam., 41, 3247–3260, 2013. a
Agosta, C., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Orsi, A., Favier, V., Gallée, H., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., and Fettweis, X.: Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes, The Cryosphere, 13, 281–296, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-281-2019, 2019. a
Agosta, C., Davrinche, C., Kittel, C., Amory, C., and Edwards, T.: Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 global climate models in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, atmosphere and surface ocean, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11595213, 2024. a
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. a
Download
Short summary
Internal climate variability, resulting from processes intrinsic to the climate system, modulates the Antarctic response to climate change by delaying or offsetting its effects. Using climate and ice-sheet models, we highlight that irreducible internal climate variability significantly enlarges the likely range of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise until 2100. Thus, we recommend considering internal climate variability as a source of uncertainty for future ice-sheet projections.

Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint