Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability

Caillet, Justine; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Mathiot, Pierre; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Urruty, Benoit; Burgard, Clara; Amory, Charles; Chekki, Mondher; Kittel, Christoph

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025

Articles | Volume 16, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 1

Research article

|

18 Feb 2025

Research article |

| 18 Feb 2025

Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability

Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel

Data sets

Sets of parameters of experiments and main results Justine Caillet https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14393502

World ocean atlas T. P. Boyer et al. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/archive/accession/NCEI-WOA18

Bootstrap Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS, (NSIDC-0079, Version 4) J. C. Comiso https://doi.org/10.5067/X5LG68MH013O

Model code and software

ElmerIce Antarctic configuration Justine Caillet, Pierre Mathiot, and Fabien Gillet-Chaulet https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14417535

Tools for interpolation and extrapolation of CMIP6 data to the ISMIP6 stereographic grid Nicolas Jourdain https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12755910

Tools for the emulation of regional climate simulations Nicolas Jourdain https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13756240

Interactive computing environment

Notebook for Figures Justine Caillet https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14414000

Short summary

Internal climate variability, resulting from processes intrinsic to the climate system, modulates the Antarctic response to climate change by delaying or offsetting its effects. Using climate and ice-sheet models, we highlight that irreducible internal climate variability significantly enlarges the likely range of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise until 2100. Thus, we recommend considering internal climate variability as a source of uncertainty for future ice-sheet projections.