Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-275-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-275-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Perspective
| 
07 Feb 2025
Perspective |
| 07 Feb 2025
| 07 Feb 2025
Considerations for determining warm-water coral reef tipping points
Paul Pearce-Kelly
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY, UK
Andrew H. Altieri
Department of Environmental Engineering Sciences, Engineering School of Sustainable Infrastructure & Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
John F. Bruno
Department of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
Christopher E. Cornwall
School of Biological Sciences and Coastal People Southern Skies Centre of Research Excellence, Victoria University of Wellington, Kelburn, Wellington, New Zealand
Melanie McField
Healthy Reefs for Healthy People Initiative, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, and the USA, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33312, USA
Aarón Israel Muñiz-Castillo
Healthy Reefs for Healthy People Initiative, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, and the USA, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33312, USA
Juan Rocha
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Renee O. Setter
Department of Geography and Environment, University of Hawai`i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
Charles Sheppard
School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
deceased
Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta
School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
Chris Yesson
Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY, UK
Related authors
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Michael R. Roman, Andrew H. Altieri, Denise Breitburg, Erica M. Ferrer, Natalya D. Gallo, Shin-ichi Ito, Karin Limburg, Kenneth Rose, Moriaki Yasuhara, and Lisa A. Levin
Biogeosciences, 21, 4975–5004, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4975-2024, 2024
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Oxygen-depleted ocean waters have increased worldwide. In order to improve our understanding of the impacts of this oxygen loss on marine life it is essential that we develop reliable indicators that track the negative impacts of low oxygen. We review various indicators of low-oxygen stress for marine animals including their use, research needs, and application to confront the challenges of ocean oxygen loss.
Christopher E. Cornwall, Steeve Comeau, and Ben P. Harvey
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 671–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-671-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-671-2024, 2024
Short summary
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Ocean acidification will cause profound shifts in many marine ecosystems by impairing the ability of calcareous taxa to grow and by influencing the photophysiology of many others. Physiological tipping points will likely be reached in the next 20 years. Small changes in organism physiology result in larger ecological tipping points being crossed. Ecosystems will shift from having higher abundances of calcifying taxa and towards increased abundances of non-calcareous species under elevated CO2.
Laura M. Pereira, Ignacio Gianelli, Therezah Achieng, Diva Amon, Sally Archibald, Suchinta Arif, Azucena Castro, Tapiwa Prosper Chimbadzwa, Kaera Coetzer, Tracy-Lynn Field, Odirilwe Selomane, Nadia Sitas, Nicola Stevens, Sebastian Villasante, Mohammed Armani, Duncan M. Kimuyu, Ibukun J. Adewumi, David M. Lapola, David Obura, Patricia Pinho, Felipe Roa-Clavijo, Juan Rocha, and U. Rashid Sumaila
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 341–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Narratives around tipping points, such as the need for
positivetipping points in energy transitions to avoid
negativeEarth system tipping points, do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed interventions could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalize many people. We unpack these ideas in the context of what they mean for the concept of tipping points, using a critical decolonial view from the Global South.
Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, and Matteo Willeit
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 41–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024, 2024
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This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
Related subject area
Topics: Biosphere and ecosystems | Interactions: Other interactions | Methods: Other methods
Equity and justice should underpin the discourse on tipping points
Laura M. Pereira, Ignacio Gianelli, Therezah Achieng, Diva Amon, Sally Archibald, Suchinta Arif, Azucena Castro, Tapiwa Prosper Chimbadzwa, Kaera Coetzer, Tracy-Lynn Field, Odirilwe Selomane, Nadia Sitas, Nicola Stevens, Sebastian Villasante, Mohammed Armani, Duncan M. Kimuyu, Ibukun J. Adewumi, David M. Lapola, David Obura, Patricia Pinho, Felipe Roa-Clavijo, Juan Rocha, and U. Rashid Sumaila
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 341–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Narratives around tipping points, such as the need for
positivetipping points in energy transitions to avoid
negativeEarth system tipping points, do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed interventions could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalize many people. We unpack these ideas in the context of what they mean for the concept of tipping points, using a critical decolonial view from the Global South.
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Short summary
Coral reefs face unprecedented threats from multiple stressors, many of which are linked to human activities. Some stressors have tipping points that, if exceeded, could cause coral collapse. These include temperatures rising 1.2 °C above pre-industrial levels and atmospheric CO2 above 350 parts per million. Uncertainty remains for these thresholds; many stressors interact in ways we do not understand. It is important to study these and employ a precautionary principle when planning our actions.
Coral reefs face unprecedented threats from multiple stressors, many of which are linked to...
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