Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-275-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-275-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Considerations for determining warm-water coral reef tipping points
Paul Pearce-Kelly
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY, UK
Andrew H. Altieri
Department of Environmental Engineering Sciences, Engineering School of Sustainable Infrastructure & Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
John F. Bruno
Department of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
Christopher E. Cornwall
School of Biological Sciences and Coastal People Southern Skies Centre of Research Excellence, Victoria University of Wellington, Kelburn, Wellington, New Zealand
Melanie McField
Healthy Reefs for Healthy People Initiative, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, and the USA, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33312, USA
Aarón Israel Muñiz-Castillo
Healthy Reefs for Healthy People Initiative, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, and the USA, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33312, USA
Juan Rocha
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Renee O. Setter
Department of Geography and Environment, University of Hawai`i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
Charles Sheppard
School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
deceased
Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta
School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
Chris Yesson
Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY, UK
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Cited
11 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Recovering Ecosystems As Well As Their Constituent Parts L. Dicks et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/con4.70088
- The expanding Indo-Pacific freshwater pool and changing freshwater pathway in the South Indian Ocean G. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02553-1
- Pathways to a blue economy S. Gourvenec et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2025.101570
- Simulating the impacts of ocean deoxygenation on coral reef resilience using adaptive ecosystem modeling K. T. et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/10934529.2026.2664333
- Ocean change in Small Island Developing States F. Gues et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-7-osr10-3-2026
- Growth rate of Porites lobata on Rapa Nui: perspectives on the sustainability of corals in southeastern Polynesia V. Basualto-Luna et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-026-02861-8
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
- Renewed research interest in crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster spp.) reflecting the increasing imperative to manage ongoing coral reef degradation M. Pratchett et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-026-02934-8
- Environmental legal frameworks must consider Earth system dynamics H. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-026-00836-5
- El Niño-driven phase shift to algal dominance on Isla del Caño’s coral reefs: implications for urgent restoration C. Palmer et al. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.20088
- The 2026 Starfish Barometer M. Lévy et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-7-osr10-1-2026
11 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Recovering Ecosystems As Well As Their Constituent Parts L. Dicks et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/con4.70088
- The expanding Indo-Pacific freshwater pool and changing freshwater pathway in the South Indian Ocean G. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02553-1
- Pathways to a blue economy S. Gourvenec et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2025.101570
- Simulating the impacts of ocean deoxygenation on coral reef resilience using adaptive ecosystem modeling K. T. et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/10934529.2026.2664333
- Ocean change in Small Island Developing States F. Gues et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-7-osr10-3-2026
- Growth rate of Porites lobata on Rapa Nui: perspectives on the sustainability of corals in southeastern Polynesia V. Basualto-Luna et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-026-02861-8
- The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review P. Ritchie et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae3cad
- Renewed research interest in crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster spp.) reflecting the increasing imperative to manage ongoing coral reef degradation M. Pratchett et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-026-02934-8
- Environmental legal frameworks must consider Earth system dynamics H. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-026-00836-5
- El Niño-driven phase shift to algal dominance on Isla del Caño’s coral reefs: implications for urgent restoration C. Palmer et al. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.20088
- The 2026 Starfish Barometer M. Lévy et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-7-osr10-1-2026
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 17 Oct 2026
Short summary
Coral reefs face unprecedented threats from multiple stressors, many of which are linked to human activities. Some stressors have tipping points that, if exceeded, could cause coral collapse. These include temperatures rising 1.2 °C above pre-industrial levels and atmospheric CO2 above 350 parts per million. Uncertainty remains for these thresholds; many stressors interact in ways we do not understand. It is important to study these and employ a precautionary principle when planning our actions.
Coral reefs face unprecedented threats from multiple stressors, many of which are linked to...
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