Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1989-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1989-2025
Research article
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05 Nov 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 05 Nov 2025

Milankovitch theory “as an initial value problem”: Implications of the long memory of ice advection

Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Dmitry Volobuev

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Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • Version 2 | 21 Nov 2024

    RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1255', Anne Willem Omta, 21 Mar 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Mikhail Verbitsky, 01 Apr 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1255', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Jul 2025
  • Version 1 | 30 Apr 2024

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Broadly, there are two schools of thought with regards to the relationship between orbital cycles and Ice Ages: either the orbital cycles directly force the Ice Ages or the Ice Ages are an oscillation within the climate system that is phase-locked to the orbital cycles. Both of these schools of thought implicitly assume that the orbital forcing makes the climate system "forget" its initial state. Here, Verbitsky & Volobuev perform idealized ice-sheet simulations and show that the system doesn't "forget" its initial state. Furthermore, this system exhibits spontaneous periodicity changes. The authors argue that this behaviour depends on the memory duration of the climate system. Therefore, this work opens an important avenue to be addressed by future research, focusing on the length of the memory of the climate system.
Short summary
We describe a so far unrecognized physical phenomenon of orbital forcing modifying the terrestrial physics in such a way that instead of erasing the memory of initial conditions this memory is extended and initial values become major governing parameters.
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