Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1959-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Unravelling the future role of internal variability in South Asian near-surface wind speed
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- Final revised paper (published on 03 Nov 2025)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 06 May 2025)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1156', Peter Pfleiderer, 14 May 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Cheng Shen, 03 Jul 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1156', Anonymous Referee #2, 27 May 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Cheng Shen, 03 Jul 2025
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RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1156', Anonymous Referee #3, 09 Jun 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Cheng Shen, 03 Jul 2025
Peer review completion
AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (16 Jul 2025) by Kai Kornhuber
AR by Cheng Shen on behalf of the Authors (16 Jul 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (28 Jul 2025) by Kai Kornhuber
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (03 Aug 2025)
RR by Peter Pfleiderer (16 Sep 2025)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (23 Sep 2025) by Kai Kornhuber
AR by Cheng Shen on behalf of the Authors (25 Sep 2025)
Manuscript
The authors present an interesting study on changes in near surface wind speed over South Asia with a focus on links to internal modes of variability such as IPO and AMO. Most of the results are based on a MPI-ESM large ensemble. In the current state, an evaluation of how well MPI-ESM reproduces crucial physical mechanisms related to NSWS in South Asia is missing. The manuscript is well written and structured and after some revision would be a valuable contribution to the field.
The authors do not sufficiently evaluate how well MPI-ESM reproduces the physical mechanisms related to NSWS (and it's changes). While the NSWS of reanalysis datasets lies well within the MPI-ESM ensemble spread, this might be due to multiple compensating misrepresentations in the model. I would suggest to compare the 850mbar wind climatology as shown in fig 4c to reanalysis datasets. If possible, please also show figures comparable to 4a,b for reanalysis data. If available, it would also be helpful to refer to the literature to evaluate the representation of IPO dynamics in MPI-ESM and projected trends in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean in comparison to reanalysis and other climate models.
Concerning the regression between IPO and NSWS:
Is NSWS averaged over the region of interest?
I do not understand, why you perform the regression over the period 1974-2095. I thought that with this analysis you wanted to estimate how much IPO can influence trends over periods of roughly 30 years. The regression slope between IPO and NSWS over 1974-2095 should be quite weak and does not really represent the influence of IPO on NSWS you are interested (at least in Figure 5 a). Why don't you use a similar timescale for this regression?
Related to the precious comment, I'm wondering whether analyzing the RCP85 scenario is the right choice for studying the link between dominant modes of variability and NSWS. In RCP85 there should are strong forced changes in NSWS as well as SSTs and SST patterns. Therefore both NSWS and IPO (or AMO) are very likely changing over the time frame of a century. I assume that the detrended (part of the signal that is not forced) IPO and NSWS is used for the analysis. Is that the case? Please clarify in the methods section.
Specific comments:
L79: Are the periods for all reanalysis datasets and CRA-40 the same?
L86: Are you sure about 2006 as start date for the projections? In Figure 1 you write about 2015.
L128-129: Why do you frame it as a hiatus? I find the term "hiatus" misleading here, as the MMM should not contain any influence of internal variability, right?
L150: Please explain the "inter-member EOF analysis" in more detail. Is the EOF analysis performed on a combination of NSWS patterns and SST fields? Is it performed on NSWS fields only?