Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1935-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1935-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Nov 2025
Research article |
| 03 Nov 2025
| 03 Nov 2025
Evaluating dynamic global vegetation models in China: challenges in capturing trends in leaf area and gross primary productivity
Anzhou Zhao
School of Mining and Geomatics Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China
Ziyang Li
School of Mining and Geomatics Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China
Institute of Applied Artificial Intelligence of the Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Greater Bay, Shenzhen Polytechnic University, Shenzhen 518055, China
Lidong Zou
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Applied Artificial Intelligence of the Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Greater Bay, Shenzhen Polytechnic University, Shenzhen 518055, China
School of Artificial Intelligence, Shenzhen Polytechnic University, Shenzhen 518055, China
Jiansheng Wu
Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China
Kayla Stan
School of Biological, Environmental, and Earth Sciences, University of Southern Mississippi, 103 Bobby Chain Technology Center (TEC), 118 College Dr, Hattiesburg, MS 39406, United States
Arturo Sanchez-Azofeifa
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton T6G 2E3, Canada
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Ziyang Li, Anzhou Zhao, Lidong Zou, Haigang Zhang, Feng Yue, Zhe Luo, Rui Bian, and Ruihao Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3169, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To understand how well current Earth system models simulate the natural world, we compared the models' outputs against measurements from satellites. Our results show these models struggle to accurately capture trends in variables related to carbon cycle, because the models can’t respond to human and environmental influences. This evaluation is crucial because improving these models will lead to more reliable forecasts of how ecosystems and the climate will change in the future.
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Short summary
In this context, we used satellite observations of vegetation to evaluate long-term trends (2003–2019) in China simulated by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). While these models capture the seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary production (GPP), they cannot accurately spatially represent the trend performance of LAI and GPP. The models tend to underestimate forests, overestimate grasslands, and struggle to represent cropland changes accurately.
In this context, we used satellite observations of vegetation to evaluate long-term trends...
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