Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1923-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1923-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Research article
 | 
30 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 30 Oct 2025

Multi-decadal initialized climate predictions using the EC-Earth3 global climate model

Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega, Vladimir Lapin, Etienne Tourigny, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes

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Short summary
We present 30 year long initialized climate predictions run with the EC-Earth3 model. The predictions show high skill in most regions for near-surface temperatures, with some added skill from initialization for the first decade, but only very limited added skill beyond. The predictions exhibit drift associated with a persistent slowdown in Atlantic Meridonial Overturning Circulation , leaving the initialised predictions in a different climate state than the historical climate simulations.
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