Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
Research article
 | 
28 Jan 2025
Research article |  | 28 Jan 2025

The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority

Jordan P. Everall, Fabian Tschofenig, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto

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Short summary
A social tipping process is a large change in a social group that can be started by few people. Does the 80/20 rule apply here? We see if this is the case for human social groups. We find that, if the social conditions allow, change occurs when around 25 % of people engage. While tipping can happen between 10 % and 43 %, most cases tip by 40 %. However, tipping is not guaranteed: when people are resistant, trusted friend groups and context-appropriate messaging help the process along.
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Tipping points in the Anthropocene
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