Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1605-2025
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1605-2025
ESD Ideas
 | 
08 Oct 2025
ESD Ideas |  | 08 Oct 2025

ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making

Andrew D. King, Nerilie J. Abram, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, and Tilo Ziehn

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Cited articles

Alastrué de Asenjo, E., King, A. D., and Ziehn, T.: European heat extremes under net-zero emissions, Environmental Research Letters, 20, 074029, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ADDEE4, 2025. 
Borowiak, A., King, A. D., Brown, J. R., Jones, C. D., Ziehn, T., Meinshausen, M., and Cassidy, L.: Projected Global Temperature Changes After Net Zero Are Small But Significant, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL108654, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108654, 2024. 
Cassidy, L. J., King, A. D., Brown, J., MacDougall, A. H., Ziehn, T., Min, S.-K., and Jones, C. D.: Regional temperature extremes and vulnerability under net zero CO2 emissions, Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AD114A, 2023. 
Cassidy, L. J., King, A. D., Brown, J. R., Ziehn, T., and Borowiak, A.: Evolution of Heat Extremes Under Net-Zero CO2 Emissions, Earths Future, 13, e2024EF005399, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005399, 2025. 
Falster, G. M., Wright, N. M., Abram, N. J., Ukkola, A. M., and Henley, B. J.: Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024. 
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It is vital that climate changes under net zero emissions are well understood to support decision making processes. Current modelling efforts are insufficient, partly due to limited simulation lengths. We propose a framework for 1000-year-long simulations that attempts to minimise computing resources by leveraging existing simulations. This will increase understanding of the implications of current climate policies for the Earth System over coming decades and centuries.
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