Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1605-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1605-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
ESD Ideas
| 
08 Oct 2025
ESD Ideas |
| 08 Oct 2025
| 08 Oct 2025
ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making
Andrew D. King
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Melbourne, Kulin nations, Australia
School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Kulin nations, Australia
Nerilie J. Abram
ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Melbourne, Kulin nations, Australia
Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Ngunnawal country, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia
Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo
Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Tilo Ziehn
CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Kulin nations, Australia
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Abigail L. S. Swann, Charles D. Koven, Cristian Proistosecu, Rosie A. Fisher, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Nancy Y. Kiang, David M. Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Hannah Liddy, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Norman J. Steinert, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
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Peter W. Thorne, John M. Nicklas, John J. Kennedy, Bruce Calvert, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Mark T. Richardson, Adrian Simmons, Ed Hawkins, Robert Rhode, Kathryn Cowtan, Nerilie J. Abram, Axel Andersson, Simon Noone, Phillipe Marbaix, Nathan Lenssen, Dirk Olonscheck, Tristram Walsh, Stephen Outten, Ingo Bethke, Bjorn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Anna Pirani, Jan Fuglestvedt, Lavanya Rajamani, Richard A. Betts, Elizabeth C. Kent, Blair Trewin, Colin Morice, Tim Osborn, Samantha N. Burgess, Oliver Geden, Andrew Parnell, Piers M. Forster, Chris Hewitt, Zeke Hausfather, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Jochem Marotzke, Nathan Gillett, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Gavin A. Schmidt, Duo Chan, Stefan Brönnimann, Andy Reisinger, Matthew Menne, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Christopher Kadow, Peter Huybers, David B. Stephenson, Emily Wallis, Joeri Rogelj, Andrew Schurer, Karen McKinnon, Panmao Zhai, Fatima Driouech, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Saeed Vazifehkhah, Sophie Szopa, Christopher J. Merchant, Shoji Hirahara, Masayoshi Ishii, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Qingxiang Li, June-Yi Lee, Alex J. Cannon, Christophe Cassou, Karina von Schuckmann, Amir H. Delju, and Ellie Murtagh
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Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew H. MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Isla R. Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Abigail L. S. Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
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This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining the understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation of emissions or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated the Zero Emissions Commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Bartholomé Duboc, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Babette Hoogakker, Tilo Ziehn, and Matthew Chamberlain
Clim. Past, 21, 1093–1122, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-1093-2025, 2025
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We use an earth system model to simulate ocean oxygen during two past warm periods, the Last Interglacial (∼ 129–115 ka) and Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9e (∼ 336–321 ka). The global ocean is overall less oxygenated compared to the preindustrial simulation. Large regions in the Mediterranean Sea are oxygen deprived in the Last Interglacial simulation, and to a lesser extent in the MIS 9e simulation, due to an intensification and expansion of the African monsoon and enhanced river runoff.
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 803–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-803-2025, 2025
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Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.21 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasize the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
Gang Tang, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Jones, Thomas Gasser, Alexander Norton, Tilo Ziehn, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, and Malte Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2111–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025, 2025
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We analyzed carbon and nitrogen mass conservation in data from various Earth system models. Our findings reveal significant discrepancies between flux and pool size data, where cumulative imbalances can reach hundreds of gigatons of carbon or nitrogen. These imbalances appear primarily due to missing or inconsistently reported fluxes – especially for land-use and fire emissions. To enhance data quality, we recommend that future climate data protocols address this issue at the reporting stage.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
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The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
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We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Andrew D. King, Tilo Ziehn, Matthew Chamberlain, Alexander R. Borowiak, Josephine R. Brown, Liam Cassidy, Andrea J. Dittus, Michael Grose, Nicola Maher, Seungmok Paik, Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, and Aditya Sengupta
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1353–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024, 2024
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Governments are targeting net-zero emissions later this century with the aim of limiting global warming in line with the Paris Agreement. However, few studies explore the long-term consequences of reaching net-zero emissions and the effects of a delay in reaching net-zero. We use the Australian Earth system model to examine climate evolution under net-zero emissions. We find substantial changes which differ regionally, including continued Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic sea ice reduction.
Matthew A. Chamberlain, Tilo Ziehn, and Rachel M. Law
Biogeosciences, 21, 3053–3073, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3053-2024, 2024
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This paper explores the climate processes that drive increasing global average temperatures in zero-emission commitment (ZEC) simulations despite decreasing atmospheric CO2. ACCESS-ESM1.5 shows the Southern Ocean to continue to warm locally in all ZEC simulations. In ZEC simulations that start after the emission of more than 1000 Pg of carbon, the influence of the Southern Ocean increases the global temperature.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Laura Velasquez-Jimenez and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 20, 1125–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1125-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1125-2024, 2024
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The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) influences climate in the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate the effects of calculation method and data used to calculate the SAM index and how it influences the relationship between the SAM and climate. We propose a method to calculate a natural SAM index that facilitates consistency between studies, including when using different data resolutions, avoiding distortion of SAM impacts and allowing for more reliable results of past and future SAM trends.
Tessa R. Vance, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Camilla K. Crockart, Aylin DeCampo, Vincent Favier, Vasileios Gkinis, Margaret Harlan, Sarah L. Jackson, Helle A. Kjær, Chelsea A. Long, Meredith K. Nation, Christopher T. Plummer, Delia Segato, Andrea Spolaor, and Paul T. Vallelonga
Clim. Past, 20, 969–990, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-969-2024, 2024
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This study presents the chronologies from the new Mount Brown South ice cores from East Antarctica, which were developed by counting annual layers in the ice core data and aligning these to volcanic sulfate signatures. The uncertainty in the dating is quantified, and we discuss initial results from seasonal cycle analysis and mean annual concentrations. The chronologies will underpin the development of new proxy records for East Antarctica spanning the past millennium.
Georgina M. Falster, Nicky M. Wright, Nerilie J. Abram, Anna M. Ukkola, and Benjamin J. Henley
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024
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Multi-year droughts have severe environmental and economic impacts, but the instrumental record is too short to characterise multi-year drought variability. We assessed the nature of Australian multi-year droughts using simulations of the past millennium from 11 climate models. We show that multi-decadal
megadroughtsare a natural feature of the Australian hydroclimate. Human-caused climate change is also driving a tendency towards longer droughts in eastern and southwestern Australia.
Lingwei Zhang, Tessa R. Vance, Alexander D. Fraser, Lenneke M. Jong, Sarah S. Thompson, Alison S. Criscitiello, and Nerilie J. Abram
The Cryosphere, 17, 5155–5173, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5155-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5155-2023, 2023
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Physical features in ice cores provide unique records of past variability. We identified 1–2 mm ice layers without bubbles in surface ice cores from Law Dome, East Antarctica, occurring on average five times per year. The origin of these bubble-free layers is unknown. In this study, we investigate whether they have the potential to record past atmospheric processes and circulation. We find that the bubble-free layers are linked to accumulation hiatus events and meridional moisture transport.
Sarah L. Jackson, Tessa R. Vance, Camilla Crockart, Andrew Moy, Christopher Plummer, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 19, 1653–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1653-2023, 2023
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Ice core records are useful tools for reconstructing past climate. However, ice cores favour recording climate conditions at times when snowfall occurs. Large snowfall events in Antarctica are often associated with warmer-than-usual temperatures. We show that this results in a tendency for the Mount Brown South ice core record to preserve a temperature record biased to the climate conditions that exist during extreme events, rather than a temperature record that reflects the mean annual climate.
Rachel M. Walter, Hussein R. Sayani, Thomas Felis, Kim M. Cobb, Nerilie J. Abram, Ariella K. Arzey, Alyssa R. Atwood, Logan D. Brenner, Émilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Bethany Ellis, Julien Emile-Geay, Matthew J. Fischer, Nathalie F. Goodkin, Jessica A. Hargreaves, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, Hedwig Krawczyk, Nicholas P. McKay, Andrea L. Moore, Sujata A. Murty, Maria Rosabelle Ong, Riovie D. Ramos, Emma V. Reed, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Sara C. Sanchez, Jens Zinke, and the PAGES CoralHydro2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2081–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, 2023
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Accurately quantifying how the global hydrological cycle will change in the future remains challenging due to the limited availability of historical climate data from the tropics. Here we present the CoralHydro2k database – a new compilation of peer-reviewed coral-based climate records from the last 2000 years. This paper details the records included in the database and where the database can be accessed and demonstrates how the database can investigate past tropical climate variability.
Laura C. Jackson, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Katinka Bellomo, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Helmuth Haak, Aixue Hu, Johann Jungclaus, Warren Lee, Virna L. Meccia, Oleg Saenko, Andrew Shao, and Didier Swingedouw
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1975–1995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, 2023
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The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has an important impact on the climate. There are theories that freshening of the ocean might cause the AMOC to cross a tipping point (TP) beyond which recovery is difficult; however, it is unclear whether TPs exist in global climate models. Here, we outline a set of experiments designed to explore AMOC tipping points and sensitivity to additional freshwater input as part of the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project (NAHosMIP).
Nicky M. Wright, Claire E. Krause, Steven J. Phipps, Ghyslaine Boschat, and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past, 18, 1509–1528, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1509-2022, 2022
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The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a major mode of climate variability. Proxy-based SAM reconstructions show changes that last millennium climate simulations do not reproduce. We test the SAM's sensitivity to solar forcing using simulations with a range of solar values and transient last millennium simulations with large-amplitude solar variations. We find that solar forcing can alter the SAM and that strong solar forcing transient simulations better match proxy-based reconstructions.
Tobias Erhardt, Matthias Bigler, Urs Federer, Gideon Gfeller, Daiana Leuenberger, Olivia Stowasser, Regine Röthlisberger, Simon Schüpbach, Urs Ruth, Birthe Twarloh, Anna Wegner, Kumiko Goto-Azuma, Takayuki Kuramoto, Helle A. Kjær, Paul T. Vallelonga, Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen, Margareta E. Hansson, Ailsa K. Benton, Louise G. Fleet, Rob Mulvaney, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nerilie Abram, Thomas F. Stocker, and Hubertus Fischer
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1215–1231, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1215-2022, 2022
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The datasets presented alongside this manuscript contain high-resolution concentration measurements of chemical impurities in deep ice cores, NGRIP and NEEM, from the Greenland ice sheet. The impurities originate from the deposition of aerosols to the surface of the ice sheet and are influenced by source, transport and deposition processes. Together, these records contain detailed, multi-parameter records of past climate variability over the last glacial period.
Dipayan Choudhury, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Nicholas K. H. Yeung, Matthew Chamberlain, and Tilo Ziehn
Clim. Past, 18, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-507-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-507-2022, 2022
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We investigate the effects of a warmer climate from the Earth's paleoclimate (last interglacial) on the marine carbon cycle of the Southern Ocean using a carbon-cycle-enabled state-of-the-art climate model. We find a 150 % increase in CO2 outgassing during this period, which results from competition between higher sea surface temperatures and weaker oceanic circulation. From this we unequivocally infer that the carbon uptake by the Southern Ocean will reduce under a future warming scenario.
Camilla K. Crockart, Tessa R. Vance, Alexander D. Fraser, Nerilie J. Abram, Alison S. Criscitiello, Mark A. J. Curran, Vincent Favier, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Christoph Kittel, Helle A. Kjær, Andrew R. Klekociuk, Lenneke M. Jong, Andrew D. Moy, Christopher T. Plummer, Paul T. Vallelonga, Jonathan Wille, and Lingwei Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 1795–1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1795-2021, 2021
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We present preliminary analyses of the annual sea salt concentrations and snowfall accumulation in a new East Antarctic ice core, Mount Brown South. We compare this record with an updated Law Dome (Dome Summit South site) ice core record over the period 1975–2016. The Mount Brown South record preserves a stronger and inverse signal for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (in austral winter and spring) compared to the Law Dome record (in summer).
Nicholas King-Hei Yeung, Laurie Menviel, Katrin J. Meissner, Andréa S. Taschetto, Tilo Ziehn, and Matthew Chamberlain
Clim. Past, 17, 869–885, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-869-2021, 2021
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The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is characterised by strong orbital forcing compared to the pre-industrial period (PI). This study compares the mean climate state of the LIG to the PI as simulated by the ACCESS-ESM1.5, with a focus on the southern hemispheric monsoons, which are shown to be consistently weakened. This is associated with cooler terrestrial conditions in austral summer due to decreased insolation, and greater pressure and subsidence over land from Hadley cell strengthening.
Cited articles
Alastrué de Asenjo, E., King, A. D., and Ziehn, T.: European heat extremes under net-zero emissions, Environmental Research Letters, 20, 074029, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ADDEE4, 2025.
Borowiak, A., King, A. D., Brown, J. R., Jones, C. D., Ziehn, T., Meinshausen, M., and Cassidy, L.: Projected Global Temperature Changes After Net Zero Are Small But Significant, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL108654, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108654, 2024.
Cassidy, L. J., King, A. D., Brown, J., MacDougall, A. H., Ziehn, T., Min, S.-K., and Jones, C. D.: Regional temperature extremes and vulnerability under net zero CO2 emissions, Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AD114A, 2023.
Cassidy, L. J., King, A. D., Brown, J. R., Ziehn, T., and Borowiak, A.: Evolution of Heat Extremes Under Net-Zero CO2 Emissions, Earths Future, 13, e2024EF005399, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005399, 2025.
Falster, G. M., Wright, N. M., Abram, N. J., Ukkola, A. M., and Henley, B. J.: Potential for historically unprecedented Australian droughts from natural variability and climate change, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1383–1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1383-2024, 2024.
Gillett, N. P., Arora, V. K., Zickfeld, K., Marshall, S. J., and Merryfield, W. J.: Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions, Nat. Geosci., 4, 83–87, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1047, 2011.
Henley, B. J., Peel, M. C., Nathan, R., King, A. D., Ukkola, A. M., Karoly, D. J., and Tan, K. S.: Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °C and 2 °C in drying climates: A case study for Melbourne, Australia, Environmental Research Letters, 14, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ef, 2019.
Irving, D., Hobbs, W., Church, J., and Zika, J.: A Mass and Energy Conservation Analysis of Drift in the CMIP6 Ensemble, J. Climate, 34, 1–43, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0281.1, 2020.
Jones, C. D., Frölicher, T. L., Koven, C., MacDougall, A. H., Matthews, H. D., Zickfeld, K., Rogelj, J., Tokarska, K. B., Gillett, N. P., Ilyina, T., Meinshausen, M., Mengis, N., Séférian, R., Eby, M., and Burger, F. A.: The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, 2019.
King, A.: ACCESS-ESM-1.5 net-zero emissions 1000-year long simulations: Seasonal temperature and precipitation gridded data with area-average timeseries of temperature, precipitation and sea ice data, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13168507, 2024.
King, A. D., Ziehn, T., Chamberlain, M., Borowiak, A. R., Brown, J. R., Cassidy, L., Dittus, A. J., Grose, M., Maher, N., Paik, S., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., and Sengupta, A.: Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1353–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024, 2024.
Lowe, J. A., Huntingford, C., Raper, S. C. B., Jones, C. D., Liddicoat, S. K., and Gohar, L. K.: How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming?, Environmental Research Letters, 4, 014012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/1/014012, 2009.
MacDougall, A. H., Frölicher, T. L., Jones, C. D., Rogelj, J., Matthews, H. D., Zickfeld, K., Arora, V. K., Barrett, N. J., Brovkin, V., Burger, F. A., Eby, M., Eliseev, A. V., Hajima, T., Holden, P. B., Jeltsch-Thömmes, A., Koven, C., Mengis, N., Menviel, L., Michou, M., Mokhov, I. I., Oka, A., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Shaffer, G., Sokolov, A., Tachiiri, K., Tjiputra , J., Wiltshire, A., and Ziehn, T.: Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2, Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020.
MacDougall, A. H., Mallett, J., Hohn, D., and Mengis, N.: Substantial regional climate change expected following cessation of CO2 emissions, Environmental Research Letters, 17, 114046, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AC9F59, 2022.
Palazzo Corner, S., Siegert, M., Ceppi, P., Fox-Kemper, B., Frölicher, T. L., Gallego-Sala, A., Haigh, J., Hegerl, G. C., Jones, C. D., Knutti, R., Koven, C. D., MacDougall, A. H., Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Sallée, J. B., Sanderson, B. M., Séférian, R., Turetsky, M., Williams, R. G., Zaehle, S., and Rogelj, J.: The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization, Frontiers in Science, 1, https://doi.org/10.3389/FSCI.2023.1170744, 2023.
Plattner, G. K., Knutti, R., Joos, F., Stocker, T. F., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Cameron, D., Driesschaert, E., Dutkiewicz, S., Eby, M., Edwards, N. R., Fichefet, T., Hargreaves, J. C., Jones, C. D., Loutre, M. F., Matthews, H. D., Mouchet, A., Müller, S. A., Nawrath, S., Price, A., Sokolov, A., Strassmann, K. M., and Weaver, A. J.: Long-Term Climate Commitments Projected with Climate–Carbon Cycle Models, J. Climate, 21, 2721–2751, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1905.1, 2008.
Sanderson, B. M., Booth, B. B. B., Dunne, J., Eyring, V., Fisher, R. A., Friedlingstein, P., Gidden, M. J., Hajima, T., Jones, C. D., Jones, C. G., King, A., Koven, C. D., Lawrence, D. M., Lowe, J., Mengis, N., Peters, G. P., Rogelj, J., Smith, C., Snyder, A. C., Simpson, I. R., Swann, A. L. S., Tebaldi, C., Ilyina, T., Schleussner, C.-F., Séférian, R., Samset, B. H., van Vuuren, D., and Zaehle, S.: The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024.
Sanderson, B. M., Brovkin, V., Fisher, R. A., Hohn, D., Ilyina, T., Jones, C. D., Koenigk, T., Koven, C., Li, H., Lawrence, D. M., Lawrence, P., Liddicoat, S., MacDougall, A. H., Mengis, N., Nicholls, Z., O'Rourke, E., Romanou, A., Sandstad, M., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Sentman, L. T., Simpson, I. R., Smith, C., Steinert, N. J., Swann, A. L. S., Tjiputra, J., and Ziehn, T.: flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions, Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 5699–5724, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-5699-2025, 2025.
Sigmond, M., Fyfe, J. C., Saenko, O. A., and Swart, N. C.: Ongoing AMOC and related sea-level and temperature changes after achieving the Paris targets, Nat. Clim. Chang., 10, 672–677, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0786-0, 2020.
Weber, S. L.: The utility of earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), Wires Clim. Change, 1, 243–252, https://doi.org/10.1002/WCC.24, 2010.
Winkelmann, R., Dennis, D. P., Donges, J. F., Loriani, S., Klose, A. K., Abrams, J. F., Alvarez-Solas, J., Albrecht, T., Armstrong McKay, D., Bathiany, S., Blasco Navarro, J., Brovkin, V., Burke, E., Danabasoglu, G., Donner, R. V., Drüke, M., Georgievski, G., Goelzer, H., Harper, A. B., Hegerl, G., Hirota, M., Hu, A., Jackson, L. C., Jones, C., Kim, H., Koenigk, T., Lawrence, P., Lenton, T. M., Liddy, H., Licón-Saláiz, J., Menthon, M., Montoya, M., Nitzbon, J., Nowicki, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Pausata, F., Rahmstorf, S., Ramin, K., Robinson, A., Rockström, J., Romanou, A., Sakschewski, B., Schädel, C., Sherwood, S., Smith, R. S., Steinert, N. J., Swingedouw, D., Willeit, M., Weijer, W., Wood, R., Wyser, K., and Yang, S.: The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP): Assessing tipping point risks in the Earth system, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1899, 2025.
Zickfeld, K., Eby, M., Weaver, A. J., Alexander, K., Crespin, E., Edwards, N. R., Eliseev, A. V., Feulner, G., Fichefet, T., Forest, C. E., Friedlingstein, P., Goosse, H., Holden, P. B., Joos, F., Kawamiya, M., Kicklighter, D., Kienert, H., Matsumoto, K., Mokhov, I. I., Monier, E., Olsen, S. M., Pedersen, J. O. P., Perrette, M., Philippon-Berthier, G., Ridgwell, A., Schlosser, A., Von Deimling, T. S., Shaffer, G., Sokolov, A., Spahni, R., Steinacher, M., Tachiiri, K., Tokos, K. S., Yoshimori, M., Zeng, N., and Zhao, F.: Long-Term Climate Change Commitment and Reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison, J. Climate, 26, 5782–5809, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00584.1, 2013.
Short summary
It is vital that climate changes under net zero emissions are well understood to support decision making processes. Current modelling efforts are insufficient, partly due to limited simulation lengths. We propose a framework for 1000-year-long simulations that attempts to minimise computing resources by leveraging existing simulations. This will increase understanding of the implications of current climate policies for the Earth System over coming decades and centuries.
It is vital that climate changes under net zero emissions are well understood to support...
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