Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1605-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.Special issue:
ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making
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- Final revised paper (published on 08 Oct 2025)
- Preprint (discussion started on 17 Mar 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-903', Andrew MacDougall, 09 Apr 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Andrew King, 30 May 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-903', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 May 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Andrew King, 30 May 2025
Peer review completion
AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (05 Jun 2025) by Kirsten Zickfeld

AR by Andrew King on behalf of the Authors (15 Jul 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (24 Jul 2025) by Kirsten Zickfeld
RR by Andrew MacDougall (25 Jul 2025)

RR by Sofia Palazzo Corner (09 Aug 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (13 Aug 2025) by Kirsten Zickfeld

AR by Andrew King on behalf of the Authors (18 Aug 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (21 Aug 2025) by Kirsten Zickfeld

AR by Andrew King on behalf of the Authors (21 Aug 2025)
Review of: "ESD Ideas: Extended net zero simulations are critical for informed decision making"
Overall evaluation:
The paper makes an argument for extending zero emissions simulations to millennial timescales. I strongly agree with the authors that having such simulations would be very useful for our science. However, millennial length simulations of zero emissions do exist for intermediate complexity Earth system models (EMICs), and were in fact part of the original ZECMIP (MacDougall et al, 2020). The authors need to better articulate why simulations with full ESMs are needed at millennial timescales to supplement the results from the EMICs.
General Comments:
(1) The reason for using ESMs is given at line 70 of the paper "This is particularly problematic for understanding changes in interannual-to- multidecadal climate variability for which changes are only likely to be detectable over long periods. The same is true for multi-year extremes, such as multi-year droughts (Falster et al., 2024), for which limited information may be gained from shorter simulations." EMICs are unable to quantify such metrics, thus justifying the expense of using ESMs. I suggest articulating this point much earlier in the paper.
(2) Early in the paper you should acknowledge the millennial length simulations of zero emissions done with EMICs, summarize what they show then highlight the limitations of such EMIC simulations, thus highlighting the need for longer ESM simulations.
(3) It is also important to acknowledge that ESMs often lack processes the EMICs include, which become more important on long timescales. For millennial length simulations processes that are particularly important are: i) dynamic vegetation, ii) ice sheets, iii) permafrost carbon iv) ocean floor carbonate dissolution dynamics. Combined these feedbacks will strongly affect global CO2 concentration, ocean circulation, and regional climates. Also important to note is that many ESMs do not conserve mass and energy to machine precision and thus are not intended for millennial length simulations. Therefore only ESMs with little to no drift in their zero emissions pi-control simulation should be extended to millennial length (hopefully this will be less of a problem for CMIP7 models).
Specific comments:
Line 18: "Humanity must achieve net zero emissions to slow down climate change" is not really correct. Reducing the rate of emissions should slow down climate change, since warming is roughly proportional to cumulative emissions. To stop global average climate change ZECMIP showed the near-zero emissions are needed. With the ZEC range implying that slightly positive to slightly negative emissions are compatible with zero global temperature change.
References:
MacDougall AH, Frölicher TL, Jones CD, Rogelj J, Matthews HD, Zickfeld K, Arora VK, Barrett NJ, Brovkin V, Burger FA, Eby M. Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO 2. Biogeosciences. 2020 Jun 15;17(11):2987-3016.