Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1557-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1557-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Research article
 | 
25 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 25 Sep 2025

Storylines of future drought in the face of uncertain rainfall projections: a New Zealand case study

Hamish Lewis, Luke J. Harrington, Peter B. Gibson, and Neelesh Rampal

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Latest update: 20 Jun 2026
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Short summary
Global temperatures will continue to increase over the twenty-first century, in contrast to rainfall, where the sign of change is unknown in some regions, such as New Zealand. These uncertain rainfall projections have great implications for future drought. In a wetter future, the increases in rainfall offset some of the temperature-induced drying, leading to a small increase in drought severity. In a drier future the reduction in rainfall exacerbates the drying due to increasing temperatures.
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