Bond, G. C., Showers, W., Elliot, M., Evans, M., Lotti, R., Hajdas, I., Bonani, G., and Johnson, S.: The North Atlantic's 1-2 kyr climate rhythm: relation to Heinrich events, Dansgaard/Oeschger cycles and the Little Ice Age, Geophysical Monograph-American Geophysical Union, 112, 35–58, 1999. a
Braun, H., Christl, M., Rahmstorf, S., Ganopolski, A., Mangini, A., Kubatzki, C., Roth, K., and Kromer, B.: Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model, Nature, 438, 208–211, 2005. a
Dakos, V., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E. H., Brovkin, V., Petoukhov, V., and Held, H.: Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 14308–14312, 2008.
a,
b
Dansgaard, W., Johnsen, S., Clausen, H., Dahl-Jensen, D., Gundestrup, N., Hammer, C., and Oeschger, H.: North Atlantic Climatic Oscillations Revealed by Deep Greenland Ice Cores, 288–298, American Geophysical Union (AGU), ISBN 9781118666036,
https://doi.org/10.1029/GM029p0288, 1984.
a
Dansgaard, W., Johnsen, S. J., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Gundestrup, N. S., Hammer, C. U., Hvidberg, C. S., Steffensen, J. P., Sveinbjörnsdottir, A., Jouzel, J., and Bond, G.: Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record, Nature, 364, 218–220,
https://doi.org/10.1038/364218a0, 1993.
a,
b
Ditlevsen, P. D. and Johnsen, S. J.: Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L19703,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044486, 2010.
a,
b,
c,
d
Ditlevsen, P. D., Andersen, K. K., and Svensson, A.: The DO-climate events are probably noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle, Clim. Past, 3, 129–134,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-129-2007, 2007.
a
Gardiner, C. W.: Handbook of Stochastic Methods, Springer Verlag, Berlin, 4th edn., ISBN 978-3-540-70712-7, 2009. a
Gkinis, V., Simonsen, S. B., Buchardt, S. L., White, J., and Vinther, B. M.: Water isotope diffusion rates from the NorthGRIP ice core for the last 16,000 years–Glaciological and paleoclimatic implications, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 405, 132–141,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.08.022, 2014.
a,
b,
c
Henry, L., McManus, J., Curry, W., Roberts, N., Piotrowski, A., and Keigwin, L.: North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation, Science, 353, 470–474, 2016. a
Johnsen, S. J., Clausen, H. B., Dansgaard, W., Fuhrer, K., Gundestrup, N., Hammer, C. U., Iversen, P., Jouzel, J., Stauffer, B., and steffensen, J. P.: Irregular glacial interstadials recorded in a new Greenland ice core, Nature, 359, 311–313,
https://doi.org/10.1038/359311a0, 1992.
a
Johnsen, S. J., Dahl-Jensen, D., Gundestrup, N., Steffensen, J. P., Clausen, H. B., Miller, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Sveinbjörnsdottir, A. E., and White, J.: Oxygen isotope and palaeotemperature records from six Greenland ice-core stations: Camp Century, Dye-3, GRIP, GISP2, Renland and NorthGRIP, J. Quaternary Sci., 16, 299–307,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.622, 2001.
a
Lenton, T., Livina, V., Dakos, V., Van Nes, E., and Scheffer, M.: Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 370, 1185–1204, 2012. a
Lynch-Stieglitz, J.: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and abrupt climate change, Annu. Rev. Marine Sci., 9, 83–104, 2017. a
Menviel, L., Timmermann, A., Friedrich, T., and England, M. H.: Hindcasting the continuum of Dansgaard–Oeschger variability: mechanisms, patterns and timing, Clim. Past, 10, 63–77,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-63-2014, 2014.
a
Menviel, L. C., Skinner, L. C., Tarasov, L., and Tzedakis, P. C.: An ice–climate oscillatory framework for Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1, 677–693, 2020. a
Myrvoll-Nilsen, E., Sørbye, S. H., Fredriksen, H.-B., Rue, H., and Rypdal, M.: Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 329–345,
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020, 2020.
a
Niels Bohr Institute: NGRIP and GICC05, Data, icesamples and software, Niels Bohr Institute [data set],
https://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/data/, last access: 11 April 2025. a
North Greenland Ice Core Project members: High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period, Nature, 431, 147–151,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02805, 2004.
a,
b
Rasmussen, S. O., Andersen, K. K., Svensson, A., Steffensen, J. P., Vinther, B. M., Clausen, H. B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.-L., Johnsen, S. J., Larsen, L. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M. E., and Ruth, U.: A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D06102,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006079, 2006.
a,
b
Rasmussen, S. O., Bigler, M., Blockley, S. P., Blunier, T., Buchardt, S. L., Clausen, H. B., Cvijanovic, I., Dahl-Jensen, D., Johnsen, S. J., Fischer, H., Gkinis, V., Guillevic, M., Hoek, W. Z., Lowe, J. J., Pedro, J. B., Popp, T., Seierstad, I. K., Steffensen, J. P., Svensson, A. M., Vallelonga, P., Vinther, B. M., Walker, M. J. C., Wheatley, J. J., and Winstrup, M.: A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 106, 14–28, 2014.
a,
b
Rue, H. and Held, L.: Gaussian Markov Random Fields: Theory And Applications (Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability, Chapman and Hall-CRC Press, London, ISBN 1584884320, 2005. a
Rue, H., Martino, S., and Chopin, N.: Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models using integrated nested Laplace approximations (with discussion), J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B, 71, 319–392, 2009. a
Ruth, U., Wagenbach, D., Steffensen, J. P., and Bigler, M.: Continuous record of microparticle concentration and size distribution in the central Greenland NGRIP ice core during the last glacial period, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4098,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002376, 2003.
a
Rypdal, M.: Early-warning signals for the onsets of Greenland interstadials and the younger Dryas–Preboreal transition, J. Climate, 29, 4047–4056,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0828.1, 2016.
a,
b,
c,
d,
e,
f,
g
Schulz, M.: On the 1470-year pacing of Dansgaard-Oeschger warm events, Paleoceanography, 17, 4–1, 2002. a
Svensson, A., Andersen, K. K., Bigler, M., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Davies, S. M., Johnsen, S. J., Muscheler, R., Parrenin, F., Rasmussen, S. O., Röthlisberger, R., Seierstad, I., Steffensen, J. P., and Vinther, B. M.: A 60 000 year Greenland stratigraphic ice core chronology, Clim. Past, 4, 47–57,
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-4-47-2008, 2008.
a,
b
Vinther, B. M., Clausen, H. B., Johnsen, S. J., Rasmussen, S. O., Andersen, K. K., Buchardt, S. L., Dahl-Jensen, D., Seierstad, I. K., Siggaard-Andersen, M.-L., Steffensen, J. P., Svensson, A., Olsen, J., and Heinemeier, J.: A synchronized dating of three Greenland ice cores throughout the Holocene, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D13102,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006921, 2006.
a,
b
Wiesenfeld, K.: Noisy precursors of nonlinear instabilities, J. Stat. Phys., 38, 1071–1097, 1985. a
