Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025
ESD Ideas
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15 Sep 2025
ESD Ideas | Highlight paper |  | 15 Sep 2025

ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters

Paul D. L. Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox

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Latest update: 15 Sep 2025
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This study challenges the conventional wisdom that the commitment to an Earth System tipping point occurs as soon as a critical threshold is crossed. The authors show that the number of elements that would undergo tipping is severely reduced if the duration of exceedance of the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C threshold can be kept below a century. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that all tipping elements would be avoided if global warming over 1.5 °C is restricted to 30 years and peak warming is kept below 2.5 °C. Consequently, the duration of exceedance of tipping thresholds matters.
Short summary
Climate tipping points are not committed upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C  would considerably reduce tipping point risks.
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