Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-151-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-151-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
Research article
 | 
21 Jan 2025
Research article |  | 21 Jan 2025

Compensatory effects conceal large uncertainties in the modelled processes behind the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and CO2

István Dunkl, Ana Bastos, and Tatiana Ilyina

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Latest update: 27 Oct 2025
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Short summary
While the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a climate mode, has a similar impact on CO2 growth rates across Earth system models, there is significant uncertainty in the processes behind this relationship. We found a compensatory effect that masks differences in the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climate anomalies and observed that the carbon fluxes contributing to global CO2 anomalies originate from different regions and are caused by different drivers.
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