Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1503-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1503-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Sep 2025
Research article |
| 12 Sep 2025
| 12 Sep 2025
Global stability and tipping point prediction in a coral–algae model using landscape–flux theory
Li Xu
State Key Laboratory of Electroanalytical Chemistry, Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin, 130022, PR China
Denis D. Patterson
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, Upper Mountjoy Campus, Stockton Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK
High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
Jin Wang
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Chemistry and of Physics and Astronomy, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3400, USA
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Short summary
Predicting sudden changes in ecosystems is a major challenge in ecology. Using a framework called the non-equilibrium landscape and flux theory, we studied how ecosystems shift between stable states. Focusing on coral reefs, we identified early warning signals that detect critical transitions earlier than traditional methods. This approach could help predict catastrophic changes in various ecosystems, offering valuable insights for conservation efforts.
Predicting sudden changes in ecosystems is a major challenge in ecology. Using a framework...
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