Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1503-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1503-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Research article
 | 
12 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 12 Sep 2025

Global stability and tipping point prediction in a coral–algae model using landscape–flux theory

Li Xu, Denis D. Patterson, Simon Asher Levin, and Jin Wang

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Latest update: 16 Jul 2026
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Short summary
Predicting sudden changes in ecosystems is a major challenge in ecology. Using a framework called the non-equilibrium landscape and flux theory, we studied how ecosystems shift between stable states. Focusing on coral reefs, we identified early warning signals that detect critical transitions earlier than traditional methods. This approach could help predict catastrophic changes in various ecosystems, offering valuable insights for conservation efforts.
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Earth resilience in the Anthropocene
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