Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1303-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Aug 2025
Research article |
| 11 Aug 2025
| 11 Aug 2025
Quantifying the feedback between Antarctic meltwater release and subsurface Southern Ocean warming
Research and Development Weather and Climate Models, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA, De Bilt, the Netherlands
Dewi Le Bars
Research and Development Weather and Climate Models, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA, De Bilt, the Netherlands
Eveline van der Linden
Research and Development Weather and Climate Models, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA, De Bilt, the Netherlands
André Jüling
Research and Development Weather and Climate Models, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA, De Bilt, the Netherlands
Sybren Drijfhout
Research and Development Weather and Climate Models, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA, De Bilt, the Netherlands
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Related authors
Eveline C. van der Linden, Klaus Wyser, Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Dewi Le Bars, Sybren Drijfthout, and Irene Trombini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4584, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
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As Antarctica loses more ice, increasing amounts of fresh water enter the ocean and can change Earth's climate. We used a climate model in which Antarctic ice loss responds to changing ocean conditions. We found that this feedback first increases warming near the ice shelves but later slows both Antarctic and global warming by changing the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. These results show that including these interactions is important for improving long-term sea-level and climate projections.
Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge A. Bernales, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4041, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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Computer models of the Antarctic ice sheet can project how much it will melt in response to climate change. That depends on the properties of the rock and the water beneath the ice, about which we know very little. That means the amount of sea-level in the future is very uncertain. Techniques to reduce that uncertainty do not always work as well as expected. We must get actual measurements of the bottom of the ice to improve our understanding of the ice sheet, and our knowledge of its future.
Erwin Lambert, Franka Jesse, and Constantijn J. Berends
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-930, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-930, 2026
Short summary
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The future contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise is strongly dependent on the melting of floating ice shelves by the underlying ocean. Here, we present version 2 of the two-dimensional ocean model LADDIE. We evaluate the model by comparing it to three-dimensional ocean models and satellite observations, showing good performance at low computational cost. With this open-source model, we hope to contribute to the evolution toward more realistic melting in ice sheet model simulations.
Franka Jesse, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 3849–3872, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3849-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3849-2025, 2025
Short summary
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We introduce the coupling of a sub-shelf melt model with an ice sheet model to explore how horizontal meltwater flow below ice shelves affects ice sheet mass loss over time. We show that accurately modelling the meltwater flow direction leads to distinct feedbacks and transient volume loss not captured by melt parameterisations that simplify flow direction. Our results highlight the importance of refining the meltwater flow representation in ice sheet models to improve sea level projections.
Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard
The Cryosphere, 19, 2495–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025, 2025
Short summary
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The effect of ocean warming on Antarctic ice-sheet melting is a major source of uncertainty in estimates of future sea level rise. We compare five melt models to show that ocean warming strongly increases melting. Despite their calibration based on present-day melting, the models disagree on the amount of melt increase. In some important regions, the difference reaches a factor 100. We conclude that using various melt models is important to accurately estimate uncertainties in future sea level rise.
Ann-Sofie Priergaard Zinck, Bert Wouters, Erwin Lambert, and Stef Lhermitte
The Cryosphere, 17, 3785–3801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3785-2023, 2023
Short summary
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The ice shelves in Antarctica are melting from below, which puts their stability at risk. Therefore, it is important to observe how much and where they are melting. In this study we use high-resolution satellite imagery to derive 50 m resolution basal melt rates of the Dotson Ice Shelf. With the high resolution of our product we are able to uncover small-scale features which may in the future help us to understand the state and fate of the Antarctic ice shelves and their (in)stability.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
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A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Eveline C. van der Linden, Dewi Le Bars, Erwin Lambert, and Sybren Drijfhout
The Cryosphere, 17, 79–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, 2023
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The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is the largest uncertainty in future sea level estimates. The AIS mainly loses mass through ice discharge, the transfer of land ice into the ocean. Ice discharge is triggered by warming ocean water (basal melt). New future estimates of AIS sea level contributions are presented in which basal melt is constrained with ice discharge observations. Despite the different methodology, the resulting projections are in line with previous multimodel assessments.
Eveline C. van der Linden, Klaus Wyser, Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Dewi Le Bars, Sybren Drijfthout, and Irene Trombini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4584, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
As Antarctica loses more ice, increasing amounts of fresh water enter the ocean and can change Earth's climate. We used a climate model in which Antarctic ice loss responds to changing ocean conditions. We found that this feedback first increases warming near the ice shelves but later slows both Antarctic and global warming by changing the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. These results show that including these interactions is important for improving long-term sea-level and climate projections.
Joran R. Angevaare and Sybren S. Drijfhout
Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 1081–1115, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1081-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1081-2026, 2026
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We present a first catalogue of abrupt changes/state transitions in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate scenarios. We find many models that show Arctic sea-ice disappearance, North Atlantic winter mixed-layer collapse and/or subsequent transition of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to a weak state. We find more abrupt changes/state transitions than in previous work at lower global warming levels.
Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge A. Bernales, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4041, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
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Computer models of the Antarctic ice sheet can project how much it will melt in response to climate change. That depends on the properties of the rock and the water beneath the ice, about which we know very little. That means the amount of sea-level in the future is very uncertain. Techniques to reduce that uncertainty do not always work as well as expected. We must get actual measurements of the bottom of the ice to improve our understanding of the ice sheet, and our knowledge of its future.
René M. van Westen, Caroline A. Katsman, and Dewi Le Bars
Ocean Sci., 22, 1353–1376, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1353-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1353-2026, 2026
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) modulates the global climate and dynamic sea level. A transition of the AMOC to a much weaker state would cause a redistribution of dynamic sea level across the global ocean surface. Here, we analyse climate model simulations to investigate dynamic sea-level changes associated with a collapsing AMOC. Under an AMOC collapse, the dynamic sea level rises substantially in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Erwin Lambert, Franka Jesse, and Constantijn J. Berends
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-930, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-930, 2026
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The future contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise is strongly dependent on the melting of floating ice shelves by the underlying ocean. Here, we present version 2 of the two-dimensional ocean model LADDIE. We evaluate the model by comparing it to three-dimensional ocean models and satellite observations, showing good performance at low computational cost. With this open-source model, we hope to contribute to the evolution toward more realistic melting in ice sheet model simulations.
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Morven Muilwijk, Tore Hattermann, Rebecca L. Beadling, Neil C. Swart, Aleksi Nummelin, Chuncheng Guo, David M. Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, Shenjie Zhou, Pierre Dutrieux, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Stephen M. Griffies, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Ombeline Jouet, Qian Li, Torge Martin, John Marshall, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Zihan Song, Inga J. Smith, Max Thomas, Irene Trombini, Eveline C. van der Linden, and Xiaoqi Xu
The Cryosphere, 20, 1087–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1087-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1087-2026, 2026
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Antarctic meltwater affects ocean stratification and temperature, which in turn influences the rate of ice shelf melting – a coupling missing in most climate models. We analyze a suite of climate models with added meltwater to explore this feedback in different regions. While meltwater generally enhances ocean warming and melt, in West Antarctica most models simulate coastal cooling, suggesting a negative feedback that could slow future ice loss there.
Franka Jesse, Erwin Lambert, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 19, 3849–3872, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3849-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3849-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the coupling of a sub-shelf melt model with an ice sheet model to explore how horizontal meltwater flow below ice shelves affects ice sheet mass loss over time. We show that accurately modelling the meltwater flow direction leads to distinct feedbacks and transient volume loss not captured by melt parameterisations that simplify flow direction. Our results highlight the importance of refining the meltwater flow representation in ice sheet models to improve sea level projections.
Dewi Le Bars, Iris Keizer, and Sybren Drijfhout
Ocean Sci., 21, 1303–1314, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1303-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1303-2025, 2025
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Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard
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The effect of ocean warming on Antarctic ice-sheet melting is a major source of uncertainty in estimates of future sea level rise. We compare five melt models to show that ocean warming strongly increases melting. Despite their calibration based on present-day melting, the models disagree on the amount of melt increase. In some important regions, the difference reaches a factor 100. We conclude that using various melt models is important to accurately estimate uncertainties in future sea level rise.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
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Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
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We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Neil C. Swart, Torge Martin, Rebecca Beadling, Jia-Jia Chen, Christopher Danek, Matthew H. England, Riccardo Farneti, Stephen M. Griffies, Tore Hattermann, Judith Hauck, F. Alexander Haumann, André Jüling, Qian Li, John Marshall, Morven Muilwijk, Andrew G. Pauling, Ariaan Purich, Inga J. Smith, and Max Thomas
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7289–7309, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7289-2023, 2023
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Current climate models typically do not include full representation of ice sheets. As the climate warms and the ice sheets melt, they add freshwater to the ocean. This freshwater can influence climate change, for example by causing more sea ice to form. In this paper we propose a set of experiments to test the influence of this missing meltwater from Antarctica using multiple different climate models.
Ann-Sofie Priergaard Zinck, Bert Wouters, Erwin Lambert, and Stef Lhermitte
The Cryosphere, 17, 3785–3801, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3785-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3785-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The ice shelves in Antarctica are melting from below, which puts their stability at risk. Therefore, it is important to observe how much and where they are melting. In this study we use high-resolution satellite imagery to derive 50 m resolution basal melt rates of the Dotson Ice Shelf. With the high resolution of our product we are able to uncover small-scale features which may in the future help us to understand the state and fate of the Antarctic ice shelves and their (in)stability.
Erwin Lambert, André Jüling, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, and Paul R. Holland
The Cryosphere, 17, 3203–3228, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A major uncertainty in the study of sea level rise is the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet by the ocean. Here, we have developed a new model, named LADDIE, that simulates this ocean-driven melting of the floating parts of the Antarctic ice sheet. This model simulates fine-scale patterns of melting and freezing and requires significantly fewer computational resources than state-of-the-art ocean models. LADDIE can be used as a new tool to force high-resolution ice sheet models.
Iris Keizer, Dewi Le Bars, Cees de Valk, André Jüling, Roderik van de Wal, and Sybren Drijfhout
Ocean Sci., 19, 991–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023, 2023
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Using tide gauge observations, we show that the acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s but was masked by wind field and nodal-tide variations. This finding aligns with global SLR observations and expectations based on a physical understanding of SLR related to global warming.
Eveline C. van der Linden, Dewi Le Bars, Erwin Lambert, and Sybren Drijfhout
The Cryosphere, 17, 79–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-79-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is the largest uncertainty in future sea level estimates. The AIS mainly loses mass through ice discharge, the transfer of land ice into the ocean. Ice discharge is triggered by warming ocean water (basal melt). New future estimates of AIS sea level contributions are presented in which basal melt is constrained with ice discharge observations. Despite the different methodology, the resulting projections are in line with previous multimodel assessments.
André Jüling, Anna von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 17, 1251–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1251-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1251-2021, 2021
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On top of forced changes such as human-caused global warming, unforced climate variability exists. Most multidecadal variability (MV) involves the oceans, but current climate models use non-turbulent, coarse-resolution oceans. We investigate the effect of resolving important turbulent ocean features on MV. We find that ocean heat content, ocean–atmosphere heat flux, and global mean surface temperature MV is more pronounced in the higher-resolution model relative to higher-frequency variability.
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Short summary
Ocean warming around Antarctica leads to ice melting and sea-level rise. The meltwater that flows into the surrounding ocean can lead to enhanced warming of the seawater, thereby again increasing melting and sea-level rise. This process, however, is not currently included in climate models. Through a simple mathematical approach, we find that this process can lead to more melting and greater sea-level rise, possibly increasing the Antarctic contribution to 21st century sea-level rise by 80 %.
Ocean warming around Antarctica leads to ice melting and sea-level rise. The meltwater that...
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