Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1053-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1053-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| 
22 Jul 2025
Review |
| 22 Jul 2025
| 22 Jul 2025
The state of global catastrophic risk research: a bibliometric review
Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED), Lafayette, CO, USA
John-Oliver Engler
Vechta Institute of Sustainability Transformation in Rural Areas, University of Vechta, Driverstr. 22, 49377 Vechta, Germany
Center for Methods, Leuphana University of Lüneburg, Universitätsallee 1, 21335 Lüneburg, Germany
Constantin W. Arnscheidt
Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Magdalena Wache
Principles of Intelligent Behavior in Biological and Social Systems (PIBBSS), Minnesota, USA
Ekaterina Ilin
ASTRON, Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy, Oude Hoogeveensedijk 4, 7991 PD Dwingeloo, the Netherlands
Laura Cook
Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED), Lafayette, CO, USA
Lalitha S. Sundaram
Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Frederic Hanusch
Panel on Planetary Thinking, Justus Liebig University, Giessen, Germany
Luke Kemp
Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Notre Dame Institute for Advanced Study, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
Related authors
Florian Ulrich Jehn, Łukasz G. Gajewski, Johanna Hedlund, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Lili Xia, Nico Wunderling, and David Denkenberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1585–1603, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The global food trade system can handle small disturbances, but large disasters could cause major disruptions. We looked at how nuclear war or severe infrastructure loss would affect global trade in key crops. Both would be catastrophic, but a nuclear war would cause more severe disruptions, with many countries losing most of their food imports. Both scenarios highlight the need for better preparation to protect global food security.
Florian Ulrich Jehn, James Mulhall, Simon Blouin, Łukasz G. Gajewski, and Nico Wunderling
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31223/X55B25, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31223/X55B25, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Large crop failures happen regularly around the world, threatening food security. We analyzed sixty years of global crop production data and found that every country has experienced major crop losses. Climate events like droughts cause most severe disruptions, with some African nations losing up to eighty percent of production. While global crop shocks above five percent are rare, regional disruptions occur frequently. These findings show our food system faces regular large-scale threats.
Florian Ulrich Jehn, Łukasz G. Gajewski, Johanna Hedlund, Constantin W. Arnscheidt, Lili Xia, Nico Wunderling, and David Denkenberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1585–1603, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The global food trade system can handle small disturbances, but large disasters could cause major disruptions. We looked at how nuclear war or severe infrastructure loss would affect global trade in key crops. Both would be catastrophic, but a nuclear war would cause more severe disruptions, with many countries losing most of their food imports. Both scenarios highlight the need for better preparation to protect global food security.
Florian Ulrich Jehn, James Mulhall, Simon Blouin, Łukasz G. Gajewski, and Nico Wunderling
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31223/X55B25, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31223/X55B25, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Large crop failures happen regularly around the world, threatening food security. We analyzed sixty years of global crop production data and found that every country has experienced major crop losses. Climate events like droughts cause most severe disruptions, with some African nations losing up to eighty percent of production. While global crop shocks above five percent are rare, regional disruptions occur frequently. These findings show our food system faces regular large-scale threats.
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Short summary
This study presents the first systematic analysis of the global catastrophic risk and existential risk literature, examining 3437 documents from OpenAlex. Using bibliographic coupling, we identify and describe 10 research clusters aligned with major risks. The field shows geographic concentration in the US/UK, gender imbalance, and a small number of prolific authors. We recommend improving diversity, fostering cross-cluster collaboration, and building connections with adjacent disciplines.
This study presents the first systematic analysis of the global catastrophic risk and...
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