Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Jan 2025
Research article |
| 07 Jan 2025
| 07 Jan 2025
Regional irreversibility of mean and extreme surface air temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 overshoot scenarios associated with interhemispheric temperature asymmetries
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona, Spain
Paolo De Luca
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona, Spain
Raffaele Bernardello
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona, Spain
Markus G. Donat
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona, Spain
Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
Related authors
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Pablo Ortega, and Markus G. Donat
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1784, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The overshoot scenarios, in which temperatures exceed the targets of the Paris Agreement and are brought back afterwards with a net-negative emission strategy, are known to activate irreversible processes in the climate system. This work analyses in detail the impact of some of these mechanisms, with a particular focus on those associated with ocean circulation and sea ice changes.
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Thomas Schmid, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Cristina Vegas-Cañas, Norman Julius Steinert, Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Philipp de Vrese
SOIL, 10, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses air–ground temperature coupling and propagation into the subsurface in a mountainous area in central Spain using surface and subsurface data from six meteorological stations. Heat transfer of temperature changes at the ground surface occurs mainly by conduction controlled by thermal diffusivity of the subsurface, which varies with depth and time. A new methodology shows that near-surface diffusivity and soil moisture content changes with time are closely related.
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Jason E. Smerdon, and Félix García-Pereira
Clim. Past, 19, 2361–2387, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Analyses of reconstructed data suggest that the precipitation and availability of water have evolved in a similar way during the Last Millennium in different regions of the world, including areas of North America, Europe, the Middle East, southern Asia, northern South America, East Africa and the Indo-Pacific. To confirm this link between distant regions and to understand the reasons behind it, the information from different reconstructed and simulated products has been compiled and analyzed.
Carlos Delgado-Torres, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Verónica Torralba, Roberto Bilbao, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó-Cabré, Albert Soret, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3674, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
We explored how to provide consistent climate forecasts from months to years ahead. Our approach combines short-term forecasts with long-term climate information to create more reliable and regular predictions. We found that this method performs almost as well as more complex forecasts but is easier and cheaper to produce. This can help climate services deliver better guidance for planning in agriculture, water, and disaster risk.
M. Andrea Orihuela-García, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Vladimir Lapin, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Raffaele Bernardello, Margarida Samsó-Cabré, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Miguel Castrillo, and Marti Gali
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174481514.42345660/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174481514.42345660/v1, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
Tiny oceanic algae absorb carbon using sunlight. When they die, some sink as "detritus" that oceanic creatures eat or bacteria decompose. This "biological carbon pump" stores carbon in the deep ocean. Our study found that in warm southern waters, particles decompose quickly but more survive deeper trips. In cold northern waters, creatures eat more particles. Winter water mixing moves carbon down before spring algae bloom. Understanding these processes helps predict future ocean carbon storage.
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Pablo Ortega, and Markus G. Donat
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1784, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The overshoot scenarios, in which temperatures exceed the targets of the Paris Agreement and are brought back afterwards with a net-negative emission strategy, are known to activate irreversible processes in the climate system. This work analyses in detail the impact of some of these mechanisms, with a particular focus on those associated with ocean circulation and sea ice changes.
Alba Santos-Espeso, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Pablo Ortega, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Markus G. Donat, Margarida Samso Cabré, and Saskia Loosveldt Tomas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1286, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Short-lived air pollutants (e.g., aerosols and ozone) affect climate differently than greenhouse gases. Using climate models, we found that during 1950–2014, these pollutants caused global cooling, stronger in the Arctic, increased vertical mixing in the Labrador Sea, and southward displacement of the tropical rain belt. These regional impacts oppose those of greenhouse gases. Hence, future reductions in pollution for better air quality must be accompanied by stricter greenhouse gas mitigation.
Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega, Vladimir Lapin, Etienne Tourigny, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1208, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present 30 year long initialized climate predictions run with the EC-Earth3 model. The predictions show high skill in most regions for near-surface temperatures, with some added skill from initialization for the first decade, but only very limited added skill beyond. The predictions exhibit drift associated with a persistent slowdown in Atlantic Meridonial Overturning Circulation , leaving the initialised predictions in a different climate state than the historical climate simulations.
Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Margarida Samso Cabre, and Markus Gabriel Donat
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-940, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate multi-year predictability of hot-dry compound events, and their univariate hot and dry contributions, using the CMIP6 multi-model decadal hindcast experiments, focusing on the forecast years 2–5. We find that hot-dry compound extremes and hot extremes are skillfully predicted in many regions, but lower skill is found for dry extremes. The skill is largely due to long-term trends in response to external forcing, while the added skill from initialisation is limited to a few regions.
Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Markus G. Donat, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder, Rashed Mahmood, Andrea Toreti, and Danila Volpi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-319, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A computationally inexpensive climate model analog method yields skillful climate predictions across timescales, from seasons to multiple years, complementing existing climate prediction systems and potentially providing valuable information for sectors like agriculture and energy.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Raffaele Bernardello, Valentina Sicardi, Vladimir Lapin, Pablo Ortega, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Etienne Tourigny, and Eric Ferrer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1255–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1255-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1255-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean mitigates climate change by absorbing about 25 % of the carbon that is emitted to the atmosphere. However, ocean CO2 uptake is not constant in time, and improving our understanding of the mechanisms regulating this variability can potentially lead to a better predictive capability of its future behavior. In this study, we compare two ocean modeling practices that are used to reconstruct the historical ocean carbon uptake, demonstrating the abilities of one over the other.
Jenny Hieronymus, Magnus Hieronymus, Matthias Gröger, Jörg Schwinger, Raffaele Bernadello, Etienne Tourigny, Valentina Sicardi, Itzel Ruvalcaba Baroni, and Klaus Wyser
Biogeosciences, 21, 2189–2206, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2189-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The timing of the net primary production annual maxima in the North Atlantic in the period 1750–2100 is investigated using two Earth system models and the high-emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. It is found that, for most of the region, the annual maxima occur progressively earlier, with the most change occurring after the year 2000. Shifts in the seasonality of the primary production may impact the entire ecosystem, which highlights the need for long-term monitoring campaigns in this area.
Elsa Mohino, Paul-Arthur Monerie, Juliette Mignot, Moussa Diakhaté, Markus Donat, Christopher David Roberts, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 15–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-15-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-15-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on the rainfall distribution and timing of the West African monsoon is not well known. Analysing model output, we find that a positive AMV enhances the number of wet days, daily rainfall intensity, and extremes over the Sahel and tends to prolong the monsoon length through later demise. Heavy rainfall events increase all over the Sahel, while moderate ones only occur in the north. Model biases affect the skill in simulating AMV impact.
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Thomas Schmid, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Cristina Vegas-Cañas, Norman Julius Steinert, Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Philipp de Vrese
SOIL, 10, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses air–ground temperature coupling and propagation into the subsurface in a mountainous area in central Spain using surface and subsurface data from six meteorological stations. Heat transfer of temperature changes at the ground surface occurs mainly by conduction controlled by thermal diffusivity of the subsurface, which varies with depth and time. A new methodology shows that near-surface diffusivity and soil moisture content changes with time are closely related.
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Jason E. Smerdon, and Félix García-Pereira
Clim. Past, 19, 2361–2387, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Analyses of reconstructed data suggest that the precipitation and availability of water have evolved in a similar way during the Last Millennium in different regions of the world, including areas of North America, Europe, the Middle East, southern Asia, northern South America, East Africa and the Indo-Pacific. To confirm this link between distant regions and to understand the reasons behind it, the information from different reconstructed and simulated products has been compiled and analyzed.
Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5605–5625, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models projecting the impact of changing climate carry a lot of uncertainty. Thus, these models usually have a multitude of simulations using different future climate data. This study used the subjective opinion of experts to assess which climate and hydrological models are the most likely to correctly predict climate impacts, thereby easing the computational burden. The experts could select more likely hydrological models, while the climate models were deemed equally probable.
Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Pablo Ortega, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Margarida Samsó, and Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1437–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Near-term climate change projections are strongly affected by the uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present a novel approach to reduce such uncertainty by constraining decadal-scale variability in the projections using observations. The constrained ensembles show significant added value over the unconstrained ensemble in predicting global climate 2 decades ahead. We also show the applicability of regional constraints for attributing predictability to certain ocean regions.
Marcus Falls, Raffaele Bernardello, Miguel Castrillo, Mario Acosta, Joan Llort, and Martí Galí
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5713–5737, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5713-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5713-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes and tests a method which uses a genetic algorithm (GA), a type of optimisation algorithm, on an ocean biogeochemical model. The aim is to produce a set of numerical parameters that best reflect the observed data of particulate organic carbon in a specific region of the ocean. We show that the GA can provide optimised model parameters in a robust and efficient manner and can also help detect model limitations, ultimately leading to a reduction in the model uncertainties.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Martí Galí, Marcus Falls, Hervé Claustre, Olivier Aumont, and Raffaele Bernardello
Biogeosciences, 19, 1245–1275, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1245-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1245-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Part of the organic matter produced by plankton in the upper ocean is exported to the deep ocean. This process, known as the biological carbon pump, is key for the regulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide and global climate. However, the dynamics of organic particles below the upper ocean layer are not well understood. Here we compared the measurements acquired by autonomous robots in the top 1000 m of the ocean to a numerical model, which can help improve future climate projections.
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3 climate model. These experiments successfully predict past changes in surface air temperature but show poor predictive capacity in the subpolar North Atlantic, a well-known source region of decadal climate variability. The poor predictive capacity is linked to an initial shock affecting the Atlantic Ocean circulation, ultimately due to a suboptimal representation of the Labrador Sea density.
Cited articles
Bauer, N., Keller, D. P., Garbe, J., Karstens, K., Piontek, F., von Bloh, W., Thiery, W., Zeitz, M., Mengel, M., Strefler, J., Thonicke, K., and Winkelmann, R.: Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 C carbon budget over space and time, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 054015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/accd83, 2023. a
Bindoff, N. L., Stott, P. A., AchutaRao, K. M., Allen, M. R., Gillett, N., Gutzler, D., Hansingo, K., Hegerl, G., Hu, Y., Jain, S., Mokhov, I. I., Overland, J., Perlwitz, J., Sebbari, R., and Zhang, X.: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 9781107415324, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324, 2013. a
Bochow, N., Poltronieri, A., Robinson, A., Montoya, M., Rypdal, M., and Boers, N.: Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet, Nature, 622, 528–536, 2023. a
Boucher, O., Halloran, P. R., Burke, E. J., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Jones, C. D., Lowe, J., Ringer, M. A., Robertson, E., and Wu, P.: Reversibility in an Earth System model in response to CO2 concentration changes, Environ. Res. Lett, 7, 024013, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024013, 2012. a
Boucher, O., Denvil, S., Levavasseur, G., Cozic, A., Caubel, A., Foujols, M. A., Meurdesoif, Y., Cadule, P., Devilliers, M., Dupont, E., and Lurton, T.: IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5261, 2019a. a
Boucher, O., Denvil, S., Levavasseur, G., Cozic, A., Caubel, A., Foujols, M. A., Meurdesoif, Y., Cadule, P., Devilliers, M., Dupont, E., and Lurton, T.: IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp534-over, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5269, 2019b. a
Cassidy, L. J., King, A. D., Brown, J. R., Ziehn, A. H. M. T., Min, S. K., and Jones, C. D.: Regional temperature extremes and vulnerability under net zero CO2 emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., 19, 014051, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad114a, 2024. a
Chiang, J. C. H. and Bitz, C. M.: Influence of high latitude ice cover on the marine Intertropical Convergence Zone, Clim. Dynam., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0040-5, 2005. a, b
Chiang, J. C. H., Biasutti, M., and Battisti, D. S.: Sensitivity of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone to Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions, Paleoceanography, 18, 1094, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003PA000916, 2003. a
DeRepentigny, P., Jahn, A., Holland, M. M., Kay, J. E., Fasullo, J., Lamarque, J. F., Tilmes, S., Hannay, C., Mills, M. J., Bailey, D. A., and Barrett, A. P.: Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions, Sci. Adv., 8, eabo2405, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abo2405, 2022. a
Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., Yang, H., Durre, I., Vose, R., Dunn, R. J. H., Willett, K. M., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M., Caesar, J., Hewitson, B., Jack, C., Tank, A. M. G. K., Kruger, A. C., Marengo, J., Peterson, T. C., Renom, M., Rojas, C. O., Rusticucci, M., Salinger, J., Elrayah, A. S., Sekele, S. S., Srivastava, A. K., Trewin, B., Villarroel, C., Vincent, L. A., Zhai, P., Zhang, X., and Kitching, S.: Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 2098–2118, 2013. a
Donohoe, A., Marshall, J., Ferreira, D., and Mcgee, D.: The Relationship between ITCZ Location and Cross-Equatorial Atmospheric Heat Transport: From the Seasonal Cycle to the Last Glacial Maximum, J. Climate, 26, 3597–3618, 2013. a
Döscher, R., Acosta, M., Alessandri, A., Anthoni, P., Arsouze, T., Bergman, T., Bernardello, R., Boussetta, S., Caron, L.-P., Carver, G., Castrillo, M., Catalano, F., Cvijanovic, I., Davini, P., Dekker, E., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Docquier, D., Echevarria, P., Fladrich, U., Fuentes-Franco, R., Gröger, M., v. Hardenberg, J., Hieronymus, J., Karami, M. P., Keskinen, J.-P., Koenigk, T., Makkonen, R., Massonnet, F., Ménégoz, M., Miller, P. A., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Nieradzik, L., van Noije, T., Nolan, P., O'Donnell, D., Ollinaho, P., van den Oord, G., Ortega, P., Prims, O. T., Ramos, A., Reerink, T., Rousset, C., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Le Sager, P., Schmith, T., Schrödner, R., Serva, F., Sicardi, V., Sloth Madsen, M., Smith, B., Tian, T., Tourigny, E., Uotila, P., Vancoppenolle, M., Wang, S., Wårlind, D., Willén, U., Wyser, K., Yang, S., Yepes-Arbós, X., and Zhang, Q.: The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022. a
Dunn, R. J. H., Alexander, L. V., Donat, M. G., Zhang, X., Bador, M., Herold, N., Lippmann, T., Allan, R., Aguilar, E., Barry, A. A., Brunet, M., Caesar, J., Chagnaud, G., Cheng, V., Cinco, T., Durre, I., de Guzman, R., Htay, T. M., Ibadullah, W. M. W., M. K. I. B, I., Khoshkam, M., Kruger, A., Kubota, H., Leng, T. W., Lim, G., Li-Sha, L., Marengo, J., Mbatha, S., McGree, S., Menne, M., Skansi, M. M., Ngwenya, S., Nkrumah, F., Oonariya, C., Pabon-Caicedo, J. D., Panthou, G., Pham, C., Rahimzadeh, F., Ramos, A., Salgado, E., Salinger, J., Sané, Y., Sopaheluwakan, A., Srivastava, A., Sun, Y., Timbal, B., Trachow, N., Trewin, B., van der Schrier, G., Vazquez-Aguirre, J., Vasquez, R., Villarroel, C., Vincent, L., Vischel, T., Vose, R., and Yussof, M. N. B. H.: Development of an updated global land in situ-based data set of temperature and precipitation extremes: HadEX3, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD032263, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032263, 2020. a
EC-Earth-Consortium: EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4870, 2019a. a
EC-Earth-Consortium: EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3-Veg model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4872, 2019b. a
EC-Earth-Consortium: EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3-Veg-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4873, 2019c. a
England, M. R., Eisenman, I., Lutsko, N. J., and Wagner, T. J. W.: The recent emergence of Arctic Amplification, Geophys. Res. Lett, 48, e2021GL094086, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094086, 2021. a, b
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Gasser, T., Guivarch, C., Tachiiri, K., Jones, C. D., and Ciais, P.: Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 °C, Nat. Commun., 6, 7958, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8958, 2015. a
Good, P., Sellar, A., Tang, Y., Rumbold, S., Ellis, R., Kelley, D., and Kuhlbrodt, T.: MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6329, 2019a. a
Good, P., Sellar, A., Tang, Y., Rumbold, S., Ellis, R., Kelley, D., and Kuhlbrodt, T.: MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp534-over, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6397, 2019b. a
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Shukla, P. R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., and Malley, J., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157926.001, 2022. a, b
Iturbide, M., Gutiérrez, J. M., Alves, L. M., Bedia, J., Cerezo-Mota, R., Cimadevilla, E., Cofiño, A. S., Di Luca, A., Faria, S. H., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Hauser, M., Herrera, S., Hennessy, K., Hewitt, H. T., Jones, R. G., Krakovska, S., Manzanas, R., Martínez-Castro, D., Narisma, G. T., Nurhati, I. S., Pinto, I., Seneviratne, S. I., van den Hurk, B., and Vera, C. S.: An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2959–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2959-2020, 2020. a, b
Jeltsch-Thömmes, A., Stocker, T. F., and Joos, F.: Hysteresis of the Earth system under positive and negative CO2 emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 124026, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc4af, 2020. a
John, J. G., Blanton, C., McHugh, C., Radhakrishnan, A., Rand, K., Vahlenkamp, H., Wilson, C., Zadeh, N. T., Dunne, J. P., Dussin, R., Horowitz, L. W., Krasting, J. P., Lin, P., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Ploshay, J., Shevliakova, E., Silvers, L., Stock, C., Winton, M., and Zeng, Y.: NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8683, 2018. a
Jones, C. D., Ciais, P., Davis, S. J., Friedlingstein, P., Gasser, T., Peters, G. P., Rogelj, J., van Vuuren, D. P., Canadell, J. G., Cowie, A., Jackson, R. B., Jonas, M., Kriegler, E., Littleton, E., Lowe, J. A., Milne, J., Shrestha, G., Smith, P., Torvanger, A., and Wiltshire, A.: Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 095012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012, 2016. a
Keil, P., Mauritsen, T., Jungclaus, J., Hedemann, C., Olonscheck, D., and Ghosh, R.: Multiple drivers of the North Atlantic warming hole, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 667–671, 2020. a
Kim, Y. H., Min, S. K., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F., Alexander, L. V., Donat, M. G., and Tung, Y. S.: Attribution of extreme temperature changes during 1951–2010, Clim. Dynam., 46, 1769–1782, 2016. a
King, A. D., Ziehn, T., Chamberlain, M., Borowiak, A. R., Brown, J. R., Cassidy, L., Dittus, A. J., Grose, M., Maher, N., Paik, S., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., and Sengupta, A.: Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1353–1383, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024, 2024. a
Li, L.: CAS FGOALS-g3 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3462, 2019. a
Li, L.: CAS FGOALS-g3 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp534-over, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3499, 2020. a
Li, X., Zickfeld, K., Mathesius, S., Kohfeld, K., and Matthews, J. B. R.: Irreversibility of Marine Climate Change Impacts Under Carbon Dioxide Removal, Geophys. Res. Lett, 47, e2020GL088507, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088507, 2020. a
Lohmann, G.: Atmospheric and oceanic freshwater transport during weak Atlantic overturning circulation, Tellus, 55A, 438–449, 2003. a
Lovato, T., Peano, D., and Butenschön, M.: CMCC CMCC-ESM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp534-over, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.13257, 2021. a
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., and Wang, R. H. J.: The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k
Melnikova, I., Boucher, O., Cadule, P., Ciais, P., Gasser, T., Quilcaille, Y., Shiogama, H., Tachiiri, K., Yokohata, T., and Tanaka, K.: Carbon Cycle Response to Temperature Overshoot Beyond 2 °C: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models, Earth's Future, 9, e2020EF001967, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001967, 2021. a
Min, S. K., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., and Hegerl, G. C.: Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes, Nature, 470, 378–381, 2011. a
Naughten, K. A., Holland, P. R., and Rydt, J. D.: Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 1222–1228, 2023. a
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016. a
Palter, J. B., Frölicher, T. L., Paynter, D., and John, J. G.: Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming, Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 817–828, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-817-2018, 2018. a
Raftery, A. E., Zimmer, A., Frierson, D. M. W., Startz, R., and Liu, P.: Less Than 2 °C Warming by 2100 Unlikely, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 637–641, 2017. a
Ren, L., Yang, Y., Wang, H., Zhang, R., Wang, P., and Liao, H.: Source attribution of Arctic black carbon and sulfate aerosols and associated Arctic surface warming during 1980–2018, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9067–9085, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9067-2020, 2020. a
Roldán-Gómez, P. J., González-Rouco, J. F., Melo-Aguilar, C., and Smerdon, J. E.: The Role of Internal Variability in ITCZ Changes Over the Last Millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett, 49, e2021GL096487, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096487, 2022. a
Schupfner, M., Wieners, K. H., Wachsmann, F., Milinski, S., Steger, C., Bittner, M., Jungclaus, J., Früh, B., Pankatz, K., Giorgetta, M., Reick, C., Legutke, S., Esch, M., Gayler, V., Haak, H., de Vrese, P., Raddatz, T., Mauritsen, T., von Storch, J. S., Brovkin, J. B. V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Hagemann, S., Hohenegger, C., Jahns, T., Kloster, S., Kinne, S., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., von Gehlen, K. P., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stevens, B., Voigt, A., and Roeckner, E.: DKRZ MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.15575, 2021. a
Schwinger, J. and Tjiputra, J.: Ocean Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Under Negative Emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 5062–5070, 2018. a
Shiogama, H., Abe, M., and Tatebe, H.: MIROC MIROC6 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5741, 2019. a
Sillmann, J., Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X., and Bronaugh, D.: Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 2473–2493, 2013. a
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N. S., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., Winter, B., and Sigmond, M.: CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3682, 2019a. a
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N. S., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., Winter, B., and Sigmond, M.: CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp534-over, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3694, 2019b. a
Tachiiri, K., Abe, M., Hajima, T., Arakawa, O., Suzuki, T., Komuro, Y., Ogochi, K., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Tatebe, H., Noguchi, M. A., Ohgaito, R., Ito, A., Yamazaki, D., Ito, A., Takata, K., Watanabe, S., and Kawamiya, M.: MIROC MIROC-ES2L model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5740, 2019. a
Tebaldi, C., Debeire, K., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J., Friedlingstein, P., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., O'Neill, B., Sanderson, B., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K., Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Tokarska, K. B., Hurtt, G., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Meehl, G., Moss, R., Bauer, S. E., Boucher, O., Brovkin, V., Byun, Y.-H., Dix, M., Gualdi, S., Guo, H., John, J. G., Kharin, S., Kim, Y., Koshiro, T., Ma, L., Olivié, D., Panickal, S., Qiao, F., Rong, X., Rosenbloom, N., Schupfner, M., Séférian, R., Sellar, A., Semmler, T., Shi, X., Song, Z., Steger, C., Stouffer, R., Swart, N., Tachiiri, K., Tang, Q., Tatebe, H., Voldoire, A., Volodin, E., Wyser, K., Xin, X., Yang, S., Yu, Y., and Ziehn, T.: Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021. a
Tian, B. and Dong, X.: The Double-ITCZ Bias in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Models Based on Annual Mean Precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087232, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087232, 2020. a
United Nations/Framework Convention on Climate Change: 1: Adoption of the Paris agreement, UNFCC, 1–32, 2015. a
Vellinga, M. and Wood, R. A.: Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Clim. Change, 54, 251–267, 2002. a
Voldoire, A.: CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4182, 2019a. a
Voldoire, A.: CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp534-over, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4221, 2019b. a
Walton, J. and Huntingford, C.: Little evidence of hysteresis in regional precipitation, when indexed by global temperature rise and fall in an overshoot climate simulation, Environ. Res. Lett., 19, 084028, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad60de, 2024. a, b
Yukimoto, S., Koshiro, T., Kawai, H., Oshima, N., Yoshida, K., Urakawa, S., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Tanaka, T., Hosaka, M., Yoshimura, H., Shindo, E., Mizuta, R., Ishii, M., Obata, A., and Adachi, Y.: MRI MRI-ESM2.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp119, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6908, 2019a. a
Yukimoto, S., Koshiro, T., Kawai, H., Oshima, N., Yoshida, K., Urakawa, S., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Tanaka, T., Hosaka, M., Yoshimura, H., Shindo, E., Mizuta, R., Ishii, M., Obata, A., and Adachi, Y.: MRI MRI-ESM2.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp534-over, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6927, 2019b. a
Zhang, R. and Delworth, T. L.: Simulated Tropical Response to a Substantial Weakening of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, J. Climate, 18, 1853–1860, 2005. a
Zhang, X., Alexander, L., Hegerl, G. C., Jones, P., Tank, A. K., Peterson, T. C., Trewin, B., and Zwiers, F. W.: Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data, Wiley interdisciplinary reviews: Climate Change, 2, 851–870, 2011. a
Zhang, X., Wan, H., Zwiers, F. W., Hegerl, G. C., and Min, S. K.: Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5252–5257, 2013. a
Zickfeld, K., MacDougall, A. H., and Matthews, H. D.: On the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions during periods of net negative CO2 emissions, Environ. Res. Lett, 11, 055006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055006, 2016. a
Ziehn, T., Chamberlain, M., Lenton, A., Law, R., Bodman, R., Dix, M., Wang, Y., Dobrohotoff, P., Srbinovsky, J., Stevens, L., Vohralik, P., Mackallah, C., Sullivan, A., O'Farrell, S., and Druken, K.: CSIRO ACCESS-ESM1.5 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp534-over, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4330, 2021. a
Short summary
Current trends in CO2 emissions increase the probability of an overshoot scenario in which temperatures exceed the targets of the Paris Agreement and are brought back afterwards with a net-negative emission strategy. This work analyses how the climate after the overshoot would differ from the climate before, linking large scale non-reversibility mechanisms to changes in regional climates and identifying those regions more impacted by changes in temperature and precipitation extremes.
Current trends in CO2 emissions increase the probability of an overshoot scenario in which...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint