Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-947-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-947-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Tipping points in coupled human–environment system models: a review
Isaiah Farahbakhsh
School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, N1G 2W1, Canada
Chris T. Bauch
Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, N2L 3G1, Canada
Madhur Anand
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, N1G 2W1, Canada
Related authors
No articles found.
Thomas S. Bianchi, Madhur Anand, Chris T. Bauch, Donald E. Canfield, Luc De Meester, Katja Fennel, Peter M. Groffman, Michael L. Pace, Mak Saito, and Myrna J. Simpson
Biogeosciences, 18, 3005–3013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3005-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3005-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Better development of interdisciplinary ties between biology, geology, and chemistry advances biogeochemistry through (1) better integration of contemporary (or rapid) evolutionary adaptation to predict changing biogeochemical cycles and (2) universal integration of data from long-term monitoring sites in terrestrial, aquatic, and human systems that span broad geographical regions for use in modeling.
Rachel Dietrich and Madhur Anand
Biogeosciences, 16, 4815–4827, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4815-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-4815-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In shade-tolerant tree species, growth is not strictly related to tree age. In this study we show that novel tree ring standardization models that incorporate tree size in the year of ring formation produce more accurate chronologies than those produced by contemporary, age-based standardization models. These findings are important for accurate and reliable long-term trend reconstruction in tree ring studies in all species but are especially so for shade-tolerant species.
J. Cecile, C. Pagnutti, and M. Anand
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-4499-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-4499-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
Related subject area
Topics: Sustainability science | Interactions: Human/Earth system interactions | Methods: Idealized models
ESD Ideas: Positive tipping points towards global regenerative systems
J. David Tàbara
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 853–857, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-853-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-853-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Fast, self-propelling positive synergies between improvements in social and biophysical systems' conditions are necessary to ensure a safe and just world for possibly 10 billion people by 2050. A regenerative view of human–environmental interactions in science, policy, education, and across many individual and organisational practices can contribute to achieving such a future – a global net-positive tipping point for people and the planet.
Cited articles
Ali, Q., Bauch, C. T., and Anand, M.: Coupled Human-Environment Dynamics of Forest Pest Spread and Control in a Multi-Patch, Stochastic Setting, PLoS ONE, 10, e0139353, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0139353, 2015.
Andersen, S. O., Halberstadt, M. L., and Borgford-Parnell, N.: Stratospheric ozone, global warming, and the principle of unintended consequences – An ongoing science and policy success story, J. Air Waste Manage., 63, 607–647, https://doi.org/10.1080/10962247.2013.791349, 2013.
Appiah-Opoku, S.: Indigenous Beliefs and Environmental Stewardship: A Rural Ghana Experience, J. Cult. Geogr., 24, 79–98, https://doi.org/10.1080/08873630709478212, 2007.
Ashwin, P., Wieczorek, S., Vitolo, R., and Cox, P.: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 370, 1166–1184, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0306, 2012.
Banzhaf, S., Ma, L., and Timmins, C.: Environmental Justice: The Economics of Race, Place, and Pollution, J. Econ. Perspect., 33, 185–208, https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.1.185, 2019.
Barfuss, W., Donges, J. F., Wiedermann, M., and Lucht, W.: Sustainable use of renewable resources in a stylized social–ecological network model under heterogeneous resource distribution, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 255–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-255-2017, 2017.
Barfuss, W., Donges, J. F., Vasconcelos, V. V., Kurths, J., and Levin, S. A.: Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 12915–12922, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916545117, 2020.
Barlow, L.-A., Cecile, J., Bauch, C. T., and Anand, M.: Modelling Interactions between Forest Pest Invasions and Human Decisions Regarding Firewood Transport Restrictions, PLoS ONE, 9, e90511, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0090511, 2014.
Barrett, S. and Dannenberg, A.: Climate negotiations under scientific uncertainty, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 17372–17376, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1208417109, 2012.
Barrett, S. and Dannenberg, A.: Sensitivity of collective action to uncertainty about climate tipping points, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 36–39, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2059, 2014.
Bauch, C. T., Sigdel, R., Pharaon, J., and Anand, M.: Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 14560–14567, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1604978113, 2016.
Bavikatte, K. S. and Bennett, T.: Community stewardship: the foundation of biocultural rights, J. Hum. Rights Environ., 6, 7–29, https://doi.org/10.4337/jhre.2015.01.01, 2015.
Beckford, C. L., Jacobs, C., Williams, N., and Nahdee, R.: Aboriginal Environmental Wisdom, Stewardship, and Sustainability: Lessons From the Walpole Island First Nations, Ontario, Canada, J. Environ. Educ., 41, 239–248, https://doi.org/10.1080/00958961003676314, 2010.
Bengochea Paz, D., Henderson, K., and Loreau, M.: Habitat percolation transition undermines sustainability in social-ecological agricultural systems, Ecol. Lett., 25, 163–176, https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13914, 2022.
Binford, M. W., Brenner, M., Whitmore, T. J., Higuera-Gundy, A., Deevey, E. S., and Leyden, B.: Ecosystems, paleoecology and human disturbance in subtropical and tropical America, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 6, 115–128, 1987.
Boettiger, C. and Batt, R.: Bifurcation or state tipping: assessing transition type in a model trophic cascade, J. Math. Biol., 80, 143–155, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-019-01358-z, 2020.
Bollen, J., Mao, H., and Pepe, A.: Modeling Public Mood and Emotion: Twitter Sentiment and Socio-Economic Phenomena, Proc. Int. AAAI Conf. Web Soc. Media, 5, 450–453, https://doi.org/10.1609/icwsm.v5i1.14171, 2021.
Bosch, C. A.: Redwoods: A Population Model: Matrix methods may be used to model the growth, survival, and harvesting of California redwoods, Science, 172, 345–349, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.172.3981.345, 1971.
Boyce, J. K.: Inequality and environmental protection, in: Inequality, Cooperation, and Environmental Sustainability, edited by: Baland, J.-M., Bardhan, P., and Bowles, S., Princeton University Press, 314–348, ISBN: 978-0-691-12879-5, 2007.
Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Petoukhov, V., and Ganopolski, A.: On the stability of the atmosphere-vegetation system in the Sahara/Sahel region, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 103, 31613–31624, https://doi.org/10.1029/1998JD200006, 1998.
Bury, T. M., Bauch, C. T., and Anand, M.: Charting pathways to climate change mitigation in a coupled socio-climate model, PLoS Comput. Biol., 15, e1007000, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007000, 2019.
Bury, T. M., Sujith, R. I., Pavithran, I., Scheffer, M., Lenton, T. M., Anand, M., and Bauch, C. T.: Deep learning for early warning signals of tipping points, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2106140118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2106140118, 2021.
Carpenter, S. R., Mooney, H. A., Agard, J., Capistrano, D., DeFries, R. S., Díaz, S., Dietz, T., Duraiappah, A. K., Oteng-Yeboah, A., Pereira, H. M., Perrings, C., Reid, W. V., Sarukhan, J., Scholes, R. J., and Whyte, A.: Science for managing ecosystem services: Beyond the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 1305–1312, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0808772106, 2009.
Carpenter, S. R., Brock, W. A., Cole, J. J., and Pace, M. L.: A new approach for rapid detection of nearby thresholds in ecosystem time series, Oikos, 123, 290–297, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2013.00539.x, 2014.
Chaudhuri, K.: A bioeconomic model of harvesting a multispecies fishery, Ecol. Model., 32, 267–279, https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3800(86)90091-8, 1986.
Chen, P., Chen, E., Chen, L., Zhou, X. J., and Liu, R.: Detecting early-warning signals of influenza outbreak based on dynamic network marker, J. Cell. Mol. Med., 23, 395–404, https://doi.org/10.1111/jcmm.13943, 2019.
Chen, X. and Szolnoki, A.: Punishment and inspection for governing the commons in a feedback-evolving game, PLoS Comput. Biol., 14, e1006347, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006347, 2018.
Chung, A. and Rimal, R. N.: Social norms: A review, Rev. Commun. Res., 4, 1–28, 2016.
Cook, E.: Global Environmental Advocacy: Citizen Activism in Protecting the Ozone Layer, Ambio, 19, 334–338, 1990.
Corvalán, C., Hales, S., and McMichael, A. J.: Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing: Health Synthesis, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN: 978-92-4-156309-3, 2005.
Crawford, J. D.: Introduction to bifurcation theory, Rev. Mod. Phys., 63, 991–1037, https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.63.991, 1991.
Dakos, V., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E. H., Brovkin, V., Petoukhov, V., and Held, H.: Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 14308–14312, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0802430105, 2008.
Dakos, V., Carpenter, S. R., Brock, W. A., Ellison, A. M., Guttal, V., Ives, A. R., Kéfi, S., Livina, V., Seekell, D. A., van Nes, E. H., and Scheffer, M.: Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data, PLoS ONE, 7, e41010, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0041010, 2012.
Dakos, V., Carpenter, S. R., van Nes, E. H., and Scheffer, M.: Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 370, 20130263, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0263, 2015.
Dakos, V., Matthews, B., Hendry, A. P., Levine, J., Loeuille, N., Norberg, J., Nosil, P., Scheffer, M., and De Meester, L.: Ecosystem tipping points in an evolving world, Nat. Ecol. Evol., 3, 355–362, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-0797-2, 2019.
Deb, S., Sidheekh, S., Clements, C. F., Krishnan, N. C., and Dutta, P. S.: Machine learning methods trained on simple models can predict critical transitions in complex natural systems, Roy. Soc. Open Sci., 9, 211475, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211475, 2022.
Diks, C., Hommes, C., and Wang, J.: Critical slowing down as an early warning signal for financial crises?, Empir. Econ., 57, 1201–1228, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1527-3, 2019.
Dimick, M., Rueda, D., and Stegmueller, D.: Models of Other-Regarding Preferences, Inequality, and Redistribution, Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci., 21, 441–460, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-091515-030034, 2018.
Dockstader, Z., Bauch, C., and Anand, M.: Interconnections Accelerate Collapse in a Socio-Ecological Metapopulation, Sustainability, 11, 1852, https://doi.org/10.3390/su11071852, 2019.
Drechsler, M. and Surun, C.: Land-use and species tipping points in a coupled ecological-economic model, Ecol. Complex., 36, 86–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2018.06.004, 2018.
Dunlap, T.: DDT: scientists, citizens, and public policy, Princeton University Press, ISBN: 978-1-4008-5385-4, 2014.
Dylewsky, D., Lenton, T. M., Scheffer, M., Bury, T. M., Fletcher, C. G., Anand, M., and Bauch, C. T.: Universal Early Warning Signals of Phase Transitions in Climate Systems, arXiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2206.00060, 2022.
Epstein, G., Pérez, I., Schoon, M., and Meek, C. L.: Governing the invisible commons: Ozone regulation and the Montreal Protocol, Int. J. Commons, 8, 337, https://doi.org/10.18352/ijc.407, 2014.
Farahbakhsh, I., Bauch, C. T., and Anand, M.: Best response dynamics improve sustainability and equity outcomes in common-pool resources problems, compared to imitation dynamics, J. Theor. Biol., 509, 110476, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110476, 2021.
Farahbakhsh, I., Bauch, C. T., and Anand, M.: Modelling coupled human–environment complexity for the future of the biosphere: strengths, gaps and promising directions, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 377, 20210382, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2021.0382, 2022.
Figueiredo, J. and Pereira, H. M.: Regime shifts in a socio-ecological model of farmland abandonment, Landsc. Ecol., 26, 737–749, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-011-9605-3, 2011.
Finkbeiner, E. M., Micheli, F., Saenz-Arroyo, A., Vazquez-Vera, L., Perafan, C. A., and Cárdenas, J. C.: Local response to global uncertainty: Insights from experimental economics in small-scale fisheries, Global Environ. Chang., 48, 151–157, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.010, 2018.
Folke, C.: Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses, Global Environ. Chang., 16, 253–267, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.04.002, 2006.
Forester, B.: Haudenosaunee chiefs declare development moratorium across entire Haldimand Tract, APTN News, https://www.aptnnews.ca/national-news/ (last access: 25 August 2023), 2021.
Galvin, R. and Healy, N.: The Green New Deal in the United States: What it is and how to pay for it, Energy Res. Soc. Sci., 67, 101529, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101529, 2020.
Geier, F., Barfuss, W., Wiedermann, M., Kurths, J., and Donges, J. F.: The physics of governance networks: critical transitions in contagion dynamics on multilayer adaptive networks with application to the sustainable use of renewable resources, Eur. Phys. J.-Spec. Top., 228, 2357–2369, https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2019-900120-4, 2019.
Getz, W. M.: The ultimate-sustainable-yield problem in nonlinear age-structured populations, Math. Biosci., 48, 279–292, https://doi.org/10.1016/0025-5564(80)90062-0, 1980.
Ghermandi, A. and Sinclair, M.: Passive crowdsourcing of social media in environmental research: A systematic map, Global Environ. Chang., 55, 36–47, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.02.003, 2019.
Ghil, M. and Tavantzis, J.: Global Hopf Bifurcation in a Simple Climate Model, SIAM J. Appl. Mathemat., 43, 1019–1041, https://doi.org/10.1137/0143067, 1983.
Gibson-Wood, H. and Wakefield, S.: “Participation”, White Privilege and Environmental Justice: Understanding Environmentalism Among Hispanics in Toronto, Antipode, 45, 641–662, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8330.2012.01019.x, 2013.
Grêt-Regamey, A., Huber, S. H., and Huber, R.: Actors' diversity and the resilience of social-ecological systems to global change, Nat. Sustain., 2, 290–297, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0236-z, 2019.
Grier, J. W.: Ban of DDT and Subsequent Recovery of Reproduction in Bald Eagles, Science, 218, 1232–1235, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.7146905, 1982.
Haas, P. M.: Banning chlorofluorocarbons: epistemic community efforts to protect stratospheric ozone, Int. Organ., 46, 187–224, https://doi.org/10.1017/S002081830000148X, 1992.
Halekotte, L. and Feudel, U.: Minimal fatal shocks in multistable complex networks, Sci. Rep.-UK, 10, 11783, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68805-6, 2020.
Hargittai, E.: Potential Biases in Big Data: Omitted Voices on Social Media, Soc. Sci. Comput. Rev., 38, 10–24, https://doi.org/10.1177/0894439318788322, 2020.
Hauert, C., Saade, C., and McAvoy, A.: Asymmetric evolutionary games with environmental feedback, J. Theor. Biol., 462, 347–360, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.11.019, 2019.
Henderson, K. A., Bauch, C. T., and Anand, M.: Alternative stable states and the sustainability of forests, grasslands, and agriculture, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 14552–14559, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1604987113, 2016.
Hicks, C. C., Crowder, L. B., Graham, N. A., Kittinger, J. N., and Cornu, E. L.: Social drivers forewarn of marine regime shifts, Front. Ecol. Environ., 14, 252–260, https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.1284, 2016.
Hofbauer, J. and Sigmund, K.: Evolutionary Games and Population Dynamics, 1st edn., Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139173179, 1998.
Holstein, T., Wiedermann, M., and Kurths, J.: Optimization of coupling and global collapse in diffusively coupled socio-ecological resource exploitation networks, New J. Phys., 23, 033027, https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/abe0db, 2021.
Hopcroft, P. O. and Valdes, P. J.: Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land–atmosphere tipping point, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2108783118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108783118, 2021.
Innes, C., Anand, M., and Bauch, C. T.: The impact of human-environment interactions on the stability of forest-grassland mosaic ecosystems, Sci. Rep.-UK, 3, 2689, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep02689, 2013.
Iwasa, Y., Uchida, T., and Yokomizo, H.: Nonlinear behavior of the socio-economic dynamics for lake eutrophication control, Ecol. Econ., 63, 219–229, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.11.003, 2007.
Iwasa, Y., Suzuki-Ohno, Y., and Yokomizo, H.: Paradox of nutrient removal in coupled socioeconomic and ecological dynamics for lake water pollution, Theor. Ecol., 3, 113–122, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-009-0061-5, 2010.
Jager, W., Janssen, M. A., De Vries, H. J. M., De Greef, J., and Vlek, C. A. J.: Behaviour in commons dilemmas: Homo economicus and Homo psychologicus in an ecological-economic model, Ecol. Econ., 35, 357–379, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8009(00)00220-2, 2000.
Jaureguiberry, P., Titeux, N., Wiemers, M., Bowler, D. E., Coscieme, L., Golden, A. S., Guerra, C. A., Jacob, U., Takahashi, Y., Settele, J., Díaz, S., Molnár, Z., and Purvis, A.: The direct drivers of recent global anthropogenic biodiversity loss, Sci. Adv., 8, eabm9982, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abm9982, 2022.
Jentsch, P. C., Anand, M., and Bauch, C. T.: Spatial correlation as an early warning signal of regime shifts in a multiplex disease-behavior network, J. Theor. Biol., 448, 17–25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.03.032, 2018.
Jnawali, K., Anand, M., and Bauch, C. T.: Stochasticity-induced persistence in coupled social-ecological systems, J. Theor. Biol., 542, 111088, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111088, 2022.
Karatayev, V. A., Vasconcelos, V. V., Lafuite, A.-S., Levin, S. A., Bauch, C. T., and Anand, M.: A well-timed shift from local to global agreements accelerates climate change mitigation, Nat. Commun., 12, 2908, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23056-5, 2021.
Kéfi, S., Guttal, V., Brock, W. A., Carpenter, S. R., Ellison, A. M., Livina, V. N., Seekell, D. A., Scheffer, M., Van Nes, E. H., and Dakos, V.: Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns, PLoS ONE, 9, e92097, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0092097, 2014.
Lade, S. J., Tavoni, A., Levin, S. A., and Schlüter, M.: Regime shifts in a social-ecological system, Theor. Ecol., 6, 359–372, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-013-0187-3, 2013.
Lafuite, A.-S., de Mazancourt, C., and Loreau, M.: Delayed behavioral shifts undermine the sustainability of social–ecological systems, P. Roy. Soc. B-Biol. Sci., 284, 20171192, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.1192, 2017.
Lapeyrolerie, M. and Boettiger, C.: Teaching machines to anticipate catastrophes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2115605118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2115605118, 2021.
Latkin, C. A., Dayton, L., Moran, M., Strickland, J. C., and Collins, K.: Behavioral and psychosocial factors associated with COVID-19 skepticism in the United States, Curr. Psychol., 41, 7918–7926, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-020-01211-3, 2022.
Lenton, T. M.: Environmental Tipping Points, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 38, 1–29, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102511-084654, 2013.
Lenton, T. M.: Tipping positive change, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 375, 20190123, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0123, 2020.
Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 1786–1793, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105, 2008.
Lenton, T. M., Benson, S., Smith, T., Ewer, T., Lanel, V., Petykowski, E., Powell, T. W. R., Abrams, J. F., Blomsma, F., and Sharpe, S.: Operationalising positive tipping points towards global sustainability, Glob. Sustain., 5, e1, https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2021.30, 2022.
Li, H., Li, X., Zhang, X., Zhao, C., and Wang, Z.: Detecting early-warning signals for social emergencies by temporal network sociomarkers, Inform. Sciences, 627, 189–204, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2023.01.076, 2023.
Lin, Y.-H. and Weitz, J. S.: Spatial Interactions and Oscillatory Tragedies of the Commons, Phys. Rev. Lett., 122, 148102, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.122.148102, 2019.
Lindkvist, E., Ekeberg, Ö., and Norberg, J.: Strategies for sustainable management of renewable resources during environmental change, P. Roy. Soc. B-Biol. Sci., 284, 20162762, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.2762, 2017.
Liu, R., Chen, P., Aihara, K., and Chen, L.: Identifying early-warning signals of critical transitions with strong noise by dynamical network markers, Sci. Rep.-UK, 5, 17501, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep17501, 2015.
Lopez, B. E., Magliocca, N. R., and Crooks, A. T.: Challenges and Opportunities of Social Media Data for Socio-Environmental Systems Research, Land, 8, 107, https://doi.org/10.3390/land8070107, 2019.
Maciejewski, K., Biggs, R., and Rocha, J. C.: Regime shifts in social-ecological systems, in: Handbook on Resilience of Socio-Technical Systems, edited by: Ruth, M. and Goessling-Reisemann, S., Edward Elgar Publishing, https://doi.org/10.4337/9781786439376.00021, 2019.
Mather, A. S. and Fairbairn, J.: From Floods to Reforestation: The Forest Transition in Switzerland, Environ. Hist., 6, 399–421, https://doi.org/10.3197/096734000129342352, 2000.
Mathias, J.-D., Anderies, J. M., Baggio, J., Hodbod, J., Huet, S., Janssen, M. A., Milkoreit, M., and Schoon, M.: Exploring non-linear transition pathways in social-ecological systems, Sci. Rep.-UK, 10, 4136, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-59713-w, 2020.
May, R. M.: Thresholds and breakpoints in ecosystems with a multiplicity of stable states, Nature, 269, 471–477, https://doi.org/10.1038/269471a0, 1977.
May, R. M. and Oster, G. F.: Bifurcations and Dynamic Complexity in Simple Ecological Models, Am. Nat., 110, 573–599, https://doi.org/10.1086/283092, 1976.
McBride, M.: Discrete public goods under threshold uncertainty, J. Public Econ., 90, 1181–1199, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2005.09.012, 2006.
McMillan, L. J. and Prosper, K.: Remobilizing netukulimk: indigenous cultural and spiritual connections with resource stewardship and fisheries management in Atlantic Canada, Rev. Fish Biol. Fisher., 26, 629–647, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-016-9433-2, 2016.
Menard, J., Bury, T. M., Bauch, C. T., and Anand, M.: When conflicts get heated, so does the planet: coupled social-climate dynamics under inequality, P. Roy. Soc. B-Biol. Sci., 288, 20211357, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2021.1357, 2021.
Milkoreit, M., Hodbod, J., Baggio, J., Benessaiah, K., Calderón-Contreras, R., Donges, J. F., Mathias, J.-D., Rocha, J. C., Schoon, M., and Werners, S. E.: Defining tipping points for social-ecological systems scholarship – an interdisciplinary literature review, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 033005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa75, 2018.
Milne, R., Bauch, C., and Anand, M.: Local overfishing patterns have regional effects on health of coral, and economic transitions can promote its recovery, B. Math. Biol., 84, 46, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-022-01000-y, 2021.
Moore, F. C., Lacasse, K., Mach, K. J., Shin, Y. A., Gross, L. J., and Beckage, B.: Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate–social system, Nature, 603, 103–111, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04423-8, 2022.
Motesharrei, S., Rivas, J., and Kalnay, E.: Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies, Ecol. Econ., 101, 90–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.02.014, 2014.
Müller, P. M., Heitzig, J., Kurths, J., Lüdge, K., and Wiedermann, M.: Anticipation-induced social tipping: can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics?, Eur. Phys. J.-Spec. Top., 230, 3189–3199, https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00011-5, 2021.
Muneepeerakul, R. and Anderies, J. M.: The emergence and resilience of self-organized governance in coupled infrastructure systems, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 4617–4622, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916169117, 2020.
Newman, M. E. J.: Networks: an introduction, Oxford University Press, Oxford, New York, 772 pp., ISBN: 978-0-19-920665-0, 2010.
Osten, F. B. von der, Kirley, M., and Miller, T.: Sustainability is possible despite greed – Exploring the nexus between profitability and sustainability in common pool resource systems, Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 2307, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-02151-y, 2017.
Ostrom, E.: Collective Action and the Evolution of Social Norms, J. Econ. Perspect., 14, 137–158, https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.14.3.137, 2000.
Pausata, F. S. R., Gaetani, M., Messori, G., Berg, A., Maia De Souza, D., Sage, R. F., and deMenocal, P. B.: The Greening of the Sahara: Past Changes and Future Implications, One Earth, 2, 235–250, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.03.002, 2020.
Pearson, A. R., Ballew, M. T., Naiman, S., and Schuldt, J. P.: Race, Class, Gender and Climate Change Communication, in: Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, Oxford University Press, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.412, 2017.
Phillips, B. and Bauch, C. T.: Network structural metrics as early warning signals of widespread vaccine refusal in social-epidemiological networks, J. Theor. Biol., 531, 110881, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110881, 2021.
Phillips, B., Anand, M., and Bauch, C. T.: Spatial early warning signals of social and epidemiological tipping points in a coupled behavior-disease network, Sci. Rep.-UK, 10, 7611, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63849-0, 2020.
Quimby, C. C. and Angelique, H.: Identifying Barriers and Catalysts to Fostering Pro-Environmental Behavior: Opportunities and Challenges for Community Psychology, Am. J. Commun. Psychol., 47, 388–396, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10464-010-9389-7, 2011.
Rajapaksa, D., Islam, M., and Managi, S.: Pro-Environmental Behavior: The Role of Public Perception in Infrastructure and the Social Factors for Sustainable Development, Sustainability, 10, 937, https://doi.org/10.3390/su10040937, 2018.
Ratima, M., Martin, D., Castleden, H., and Delormier, T.: Indigenous voices and knowledge systems – promoting planetary health, health equity, and sustainable development now and for future generations, Glob. Health Promot., 26, 3–5, https://doi.org/10.1177/1757975919838487, 2019.
Reisinger, D., Adam, R., Kogler, M. L., Füllsack, M., and Jäger, G.: Critical transitions in degree mixed networks: A discovery of forbidden tipping regions in networked spin systems, PLoS ONE, 17, e0277347, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0277347, 2022.
Richter, A. and Dakos, V.: Profit fluctuations signal eroding resilience of natural resources, Ecol. Econ., 117, 12–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.05.013, 2015.
Richter, A. and Grasman, J.: The transmission of sustainable harvesting norms when agents are conditionally cooperative, Ecol. Econ., 93, 202–209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.05.013, 2013.
Richter, A., van Soest, D., and Grasman, J.: Contagious cooperation, temptation, and ecosystem collapse, J. Environ. Econ. Manag., 66, 141–158, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2013.04.004, 2013.
Rocha, J. C., Schill, C., Saavedra-Díaz, L. M., Moreno, R. D. P., and Maldonado, J. H.: Cooperation in the face of thresholds, risk, and uncertainty: Experimental evidence in fisher communities from Colombia, PLoS ONE, 15, e0242363, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242363, 2020.
Rosales Sánchez, C., Craglia, M., and Bregt, A. K.: New data sources for social indicators: the case study of contacting politicians by Twitter, Int. J. Digit. Earth, 10, 829–845, https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2016.1259361, 2017.
Salathé, M., Bengtsson, L., Bodnar, T. J., Brewer, D. D., Brownstein, J. S., Buckee, C., Campbell, E. M., Cattuto, C., Khandelwal, S., Mabry, P. L., and Vespignani, A.: Digital Epidemiology, PLoS Comput. Biol., 8, e1002616, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002616, 2012.
Satake, A., Leslie, H. M., Iwasa, Y., and Levin, S. A.: Coupled ecological–social dynamics in a forested landscape: Spatial interactions and information flow, J. Theor. Biol., 246, 695–707, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2007.01.014, 2007.
Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., Held, H., Van Nes, E. H., Rietkerk, M., and Sugihara, G.: Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature, 461, 53–59, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08227, 2009.
Schlag, K. H.: Why Imitate, and if so, How? A Bounded Rational Approach to Multi-Armed Bandits, J. Econ. Theory, 78, 130–156, 1998.
Schlüter, M., Mcallister, R. R. J., Arlinghaus, R., Bunnefeld, N., Eisenack, K., Hölker, F., Milner-Gulland, E. J., Müller, B., Nicholson, E., Quaas, M., and Stöven, M.: New horizons for managing the environment: A review of coupled social-ecological systems modeling, Nat. Resour. Model., 25, 219–272, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1939-7445.2011.00108.x, 2012.
Schlüter, M., Tavoni, A., and Levin, S.: Robustness of norm-driven cooperation in the commons, P. Roy. Soc. B-Biol. Sci., 283, 20152431, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.2431, 2016.
Schuster, P. and Sigmund, K.: Replicator dynamics, J. Theor. Biol., 100, 533–538, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-5193(83)90445-9, 1983.
Sethi, R. and Somanathan, E.: The Evolution of Social Norms in Common Property Resource Use, Am. Econ. Rev., 86, 766–788, 1996.
Shao, Y., Wang, X., and Fu, F.: Evolutionary dynamics of group cooperation with asymmetrical environmental feedback, EPL-Europhys. Lett., 126, 40005, https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/126/40005, 2019.
Sigdel, R. P., Anand, M., and Bauch, C. T.: Competition between injunctive social norms and conservation priorities gives rise to complex dynamics in a model of forest growth and opinion dynamics, J. Theor. Biol., 432, 132–140, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.07.029, 2017.
Somanathan, E.: Deforestation, Property Rights and Incentives in Central Himalaya, Econ. Polit. Weekly, 26, PE37–PE39 + PE41–PE46, 1991.
Stadelmann-Steffen, I., Eder, C., Harring, N., Spilker, G., and Katsanidou, A.: A framework for social tipping in climate change mitigation: What we can learn about social tipping dynamics from the chlorofluorocarbons phase-out, Energy Res. Soc. Sci., 82, 102307, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102307, 2021.
Steffen, W., Crutzen, P. J., and McNeill, J. R.: 2. The Anthropocene: Are Humans Now Overwhelming the Great Forces of Nature?, in: Environment and Society, New York University Press, 12–31, https://doi.org/10.18574/nyu/9781479844746.003.0006, 2017.
Stoll-Kleemann, S., O'Riordan, T., and Jaeger, C. C.: The psychology of denial concerning climate mitigation measures: evidence from Swiss focus groups, Global Environ. Chang., 11, 107–117, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(00)00061-3, 2001.
Sugiarto, H. S., Chung, N. N., Lai, C. H., and Chew, L. Y.: Socioecological regime shifts in the setting of complex social interactions, Phys. Rev. E, 91, 062804, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.91.062804, 2015.
Sugiarto, H. S., Chung, N. N., Lai, C. H., and Chew, L. Y.: Emergence of cooperation in a coupled socio-ecological system through a direct or an indirect social control mechanism, J. Phys. Commun., 1, 055019, https://doi.org/10.1088/2399-6528/aa9b0e, 2017a.
Sugiarto, H. S., Lansing, J. S., Chung, N. N., Lai, C. H., Cheong, S. A., and Chew, L. Y.: Social Cooperation and Disharmony in Communities Mediated through Common Pool Resource Exploitation, Phys. Rev. Lett., 118, 208301, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.208301, 2017b.
Sun, T. A. and Hilker, F. M.: Analyzing the mutual feedbacks between lake pollution and human behavior in a mathematical social-ecological model, Ecol. Complex., 43, 100834, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2020.100834, 2020.
Suzuki, Y. and Iwasa, Y.: The coupled dynamics of human socio-economic choice and lake water system: the interaction of two sources of nonlinearity, Ecol. Res., 24, 479–489, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11284-008-0548-3, 2009.
Tavoni, A., Schlüter, M., and Levin, S.: The survival of the conformist: Social pressure and renewable resource management, J. Theor. Biol., 299, 152–161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.07.003, 2012.
Thampi, V. A., Anand, M., and Bauch, C. T.: Socio-ecological dynamics of Caribbean coral reef ecosystems and conservation opinion propagation, Sci. Rep.-UK, 8, 2597, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20341-0, 2018.
Tilman, A. R., Levin, S., and Watson, J. R.: Revenue-sharing clubs provide economic insurance and incentives for sustainability in common-pool resource systems, J. Theor. Biol., 454, 205–214, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.06.003, 2018.
Van Boven, L., Ehret, P. J., and Sherman, D. K.: Psychological Barriers to Bipartisan Public Support for Climate Policy, Perspect. Psychol. Sci., 13, 492–507, https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691617748966, 2018.
Van Nes, E. H., Arani, B. M. S., Staal, A., Van Der Bolt, B., Flores, B. M., Bathiany, S., and Scheffer, M.: What Do You Mean, “Tipping Point”?, Trends Ecol. Evol., 31, 902–904, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2016.09.011, 2016.
Vasconcelos, V. V., Santos, F. C., Pacheco, J. M., and Levin, S. A.: Climate policies under wealth inequality, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 2212–2216, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1323479111, 2014.
Wang, Y., Kaplan, N., Newman, G., and Scarpino, R.: CitSci.org: A New Model for Managing, Documenting, and Sharing Citizen Science Data, PLoS Biol., 13, e1002280, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1002280, 2015.
Weitz, J. S., Eksin, C., Paarporn, K., Brown, S. P., and Ratcliff, W. C.: An oscillating tragedy of the commons in replicator dynamics with game-environment feedback, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, E7518–E7525, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1604096113, 2016.
Wiedermann, M., Donges, J. F., Heitzig, J., Lucht, W., and Kurths, J.: Macroscopic description of complex adaptive networks coevolving with dynamic node states, Phys. Rev. E, 91, 052801, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.91.052801, 2015.
Willcock, S., Cooper, G. S., Addy, J., and Dearing, J. A.: Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers, Nat. Sustain., 6, 1331–1342, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01157-x, 2023.
Wohlin, C.: Guidelines for snowballing in systematic literature studies and a replication in software engineering, in: EASE '14: Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering, 38, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1145/2601248.2601268, 2014.
Wollkind, D. J., Collings, J. B., and Logan, J. A.: Metastability in a temperature-dependent model system for predator-prey mite outbreak interactions on fruit trees, B. Math. Biol., 50, 379–409, 1988.
Xu, L., Patterson, D., Levin, S. A., and Wang, J.: Non-equilibrium early-warning signals for critical transitions in ecological systems, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 120, e2218663120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218663120, 2023.
Short summary
Mathematical models that include interactions between humans and the environment can provide valuable information to further our understanding of tipping points. Many social processes such as social norms and rates of social change can affect these tipping points in ways that are often specific to the system being modeled. Higher complexity of social structure can increase the likelihood of these transitions. We discuss how data are used to predict tipping events across many coupled systems.
Mathematical models that include interactions between humans and the environment can provide...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint