Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-387-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-387-2024
Research article
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18 Apr 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 18 Apr 2024

Carbon budget concept and its deviation through the pulse response lens

Vito Avakumović

Cited articles

Allen, M. R., Frame, D. J., Huntingford, C., Jones, C. D., Lowe, J. A., Meinshausen, M., and Meinshausen, N.: Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne, Nature, 458, 1163–1166, 2009. a
Anthoff, D. and Tol, R. S.: The climate framework for uncertainty, negotiation and distribution (FUND): Technical description, version 3.6, FUND Doc, 2014. a
Avakumović, V.: Codes & Runs for Avakumović (2023), Zenodo [code, data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8314808, 2023. a, b
Bekchanov, M., Stein, L., and Held, H.: Accuracy of subsidiary climate targets (concentration and cumulative emission) as substitutes to temperature target: trade-offs between overshooting and economic loss, in preparation, 2024. a
Dietz, S., van der Ploeg, F., Rezai, A., and Venmans, F.: Are Economists Getting Climate Dynamics Right and Does It Matter?, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 8, 895–921, https://doi.org/10.1086/713977, 2021. a
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Chief editor
The paper is of interest to a broad geoscience and climate policy audience, due to the wide use and understanding of the 'cumulative emissions' concept.
Short summary
The carbon budget approach is based on a close linear relationship between the global temperature and cumulative emissions. This article reinterprets the carbon budget approach through the lens of the temperature response to an emission pulse in the role of a Green’s function, or as a generalization of TCRE. It shows that inspecting the simple model’s pulse response allows for a prediction of deviations for any possible emission scenario and derivation of a nonlinear carbon budget equation.
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