Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-323-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-323-2024
Research article
 | 
02 Apr 2024
Research article |  | 02 Apr 2024

Estimating freshwater flux amplification with ocean tracers via linear response theory

Aurora Basinski-Ferris and Laure Zanna

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Cited articles

Allan, R. P., Liu, C., Zahn, M., Lavers, D. A., Koukouvagias, E., and Bodas-Salcedo, A.: Physically Consistent Responses of the Global Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Models and Observations, Surv. Geophys., 35, 533–552, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9213-z, 2014. a
Basinski-Ferris, A.: Freshwater flux estimation with linear response theory, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7853128, 2023. a
Bronselaer, B. and Zanna, L.: Heat and carbon coupling reveals ocean warming due to circulation changes, Nature, 584, 227–233, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2573-5, 2020. a
Brunton, S. L. and Kutz, J. N.: Data-Driven Science and Engineering : Machine Learning, Dynamical Systems, and Control, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 9781108380690, ISBN 9781108380690, 2019. a
Cheng, L. and Zhu, J.: Benefits of CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble in Reconstructing Historical Ocean Subsurface Temperature Variations, J. Climate, 29, 5393–5416, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0730.1, 2016 (data available at: http://www.ocean.iap.ac.cn/pages/dataService/dataService.html, last access: 24 February 2021). a, b, c
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Under anthropogenic climate change, the hydrological cycle is expected to intensify. However, it is difficult to directly measure the amplification that has occurred over the past decades. Generally, ocean salinity patterns are used to infer this change in the hydrological cycle. Here, we present a new method to do this inference based on linear response theory. We find that over the period 19752019, the hydrological cycle has amplified by 5.04 % ± 1.27 % per degree Celsius of surface warming.
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