Estimating freshwater flux amplification with ocean tracers via linear response theory

Basinski-Ferris, Aurora; Zanna, Laure

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-323-2024

Articles | Volume 15, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-323-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-323-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 2

Research article

|

02 Apr 2024

Research article |

| 02 Apr 2024

Estimating freshwater flux amplification with ocean tracers via linear response theory

Aurora Basinski-Ferris and Laure Zanna

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-323-2024-supplement

Data sets

Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigation of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing (http://gws-access.ceda.ac.uk/public/ukfafmip) J. M. Gregory et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016

Ocean‐Only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change (http://gws-access.ceda.ac.uk/public/ukfafmip) A. Todd et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002027

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability (https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/dataset/ucar.cgd.ccsm4.cesmLE.ocn.proc.monthly_ave.html) J. E. Kay et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1

Benefits of CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble in Reconstructing Historical Ocean Subsurface Temperature Variations (http://www.ocean.iap.ac.cn/pages/dataService/dataService.html) L. Cheng and J. Zhu https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0730.1

Improved estimates of changes in upper ocean salinity and the hydrological cycle (http://www.ocean.iap.ac.cn/pages/dataService/dataService.html) L. Cheng et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0366.1

GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), version 4 GISTEMP Team https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

Model code and software

Freshwater flux estimation with linear response theory Aurora Basinski-Ferris https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7853128

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Short summary

Under anthropogenic climate change, the hydrological cycle is expected to intensify. However, it is difficult to directly measure the amplification that has occurred over the past decades. Generally, ocean salinity patterns are used to infer this change in the hydrological cycle. Here, we present a new method to do this inference based on linear response theory. We find that over the period 1975–2019, the hydrological cycle has amplified by 5.04 % ± 1.27 % per degree Celsius of surface warming.