Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-293-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-293-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Mar 2024
Research article |
| 22 Mar 2024
| 22 Mar 2024
Diagnosing the causes of AMOC slowdown in a coupled model: a cautionary tale
Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Michel Crucifix
Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Related authors
Loïc Sablon, Pierre Maffre, Yves Goddéris, Paul J. Valdes, Justin Gérard, Jarno J. C. Huygh, Anne-Christine Da Silva, and Michel Crucifix
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1696, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an innovative climate modelling framework that combines statistical methods with climate simulations to study Earth's environmental systems. The model captures how orbital changes and carbon dioxide levels influence climate atmospheric dynamics, offering a detailed and efficient way to explore long-term processes. This tool provides new opportunities to investigate Earth's climate history and its implications for future changes.
Justin Gérard, Loïc Sablon, Jarno J. C. Huygh, Anne-Christine Da Silva, Alexandre Pohl, Christian Vérard, and Michel Crucifix
Clim. Past, 21, 239–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-239-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used cGENIE, a climate model, to explore how changes in continental configuration, CO2 levels, and orbital configuration affected ocean oxygen levels during the Devonian period (419–359 million years ago). Key factors contributing to ocean anoxia were identified, highlighting the influence of continental configurations, atmospheric conditions, and orbital changes. Our findings offer new insights into the causes and prolonged durations of Devonian ocean anoxic events.
Lilian Vanderveken and Michel Crucifix
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 32, 189–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-189-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-32-189-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation patterns in semi-arid regions arise from interactions between plants and environmental factors. This study uses a numerical model to explore how vegetation responds to changes in rainfall and random disturbances. We identify key timescales that influence resilience, showing that ecosystems rely on both stable and unstable states to adapt. These findings offer insights into the resilience mechanisms that help ecosystems maintain stability under environmental stress.
Loïc Sablon, Pierre Maffre, Yves Goddéris, Paul J. Valdes, Justin Gérard, Jarno J. C. Huygh, Anne-Christine Da Silva, and Michel Crucifix
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1696, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
We propose an innovative climate modelling framework that combines statistical methods with climate simulations to study Earth's environmental systems. The model captures how orbital changes and carbon dioxide levels influence climate atmospheric dynamics, offering a detailed and efficient way to explore long-term processes. This tool provides new opportunities to investigate Earth's climate history and its implications for future changes.
Victor Couplet, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 3081–3129, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-3081-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present SURFER v3.0, a simple climate model designed to estimate the impact of CO2 and CH4 emissions on global temperatures, sea levels, and ocean pH. We added new carbon cycle processes and calibrated the model to observations and results from more complex models, enabling use over timescales ranging from decades to millions of years. SURFER v3.0 is fast, transparent, and easy to use, making it an ideal tool for policy assessments and suitable for educational purposes.
Justin Gérard, Loïc Sablon, Jarno J. C. Huygh, Anne-Christine Da Silva, Alexandre Pohl, Christian Vérard, and Michel Crucifix
Clim. Past, 21, 239–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-239-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We used cGENIE, a climate model, to explore how changes in continental configuration, CO2 levels, and orbital configuration affected ocean oxygen levels during the Devonian period (419–359 million years ago). Key factors contributing to ocean anoxia were identified, highlighting the influence of continental configurations, atmospheric conditions, and orbital changes. Our findings offer new insights into the causes and prolonged durations of Devonian ocean anoxic events.
Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-39, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
The late Pleistocene glacial cycles are dominated by a 100-kyr periodicity, rather than other major astronomical periods like 19, 23, 41, or 400 kyr. Various models propose distinct mechanisms to explain this, but their diversity may obscure the key factor behind the 100-kyr periodicity. We propose a time-scale matching hypothesis, suggesting that the ice-sheet climate system responds to astronomical forcing at ~100 kyr because its intrinsic timescale is closer to 100 kyr than to other periods.
Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, and Michel Crucifix
Clim. Past, 19, 2551–2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2551-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the different boundary conditions to allow ice sheet growth and ice sheet decline of the Antarctic ice sheet when it appeared ∼38–34 Myr ago. The thresholds for ice sheet growth and decline differ because of the different climatological conditions above an ice sheet (higher elevation and higher albedo) compared to a bare topography. We found that the ice–albedo feedback and the isostasy feedback respectively ease and delay the transition from a deglacial to glacial state.
Lilian Vanderveken, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 30, 585–599, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-30-585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In semi-arid regions, hydric stress affects plant growth. In these conditions, vegetation patterns develop and effectively allow for vegetation to persist under low water input. The formation of patterns and the transition between patterns can be studied with small models taking the form of dynamical systems. Our study produces a full map of stable and unstable solutions in a canonical vegetation model and shows how they determine the transitions between different patterns.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Clim. Past, 19, 1793–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1793-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1793-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Are phenomenological dynamical paleoclimate models physically similar to Nature? We demonstrated that though they may be very accurate in reproducing empirical time series, this is not sufficient to claim physical similarity with Nature until similarity parameters are considered. We suggest that the diagnostics of physical similarity should become a standard procedure before a phenomenological model can be utilized for interpretations of historical records or future predictions.
Marina Martínez Montero, Michel Crucifix, Victor Couplet, Nuria Brede, and Nicola Botta
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8059–8084, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present SURFER, a lightweight model that links CO2 emissions and geoengineering to ocean acidification and sea level rise from glaciers, ocean thermal expansion and Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The ice sheet module adequately describes the tipping points of both Greenland and Antarctica. SURFER is understandable, fast, accurate up to several thousands of years, capable of emulating results obtained by state of the art models and well suited for policy analyses.
Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, and Michel Crucifix
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6373–6401, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6373-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Ice sheets are an important component of the climate system and interact with the atmosphere through albedo variations and changes in the surface height. On very long timescales, it is impossible to directly couple ice sheet models with climate models and other techniques have to be used. Here we present a novel coupling method between ice sheets and the atmosphere by making use of an emulator to simulate ice sheet–climate interactions for several million years.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate here that a single physical phenomenon, specifically, a naturally changing balance between intensities of temperature advection and diffusion in the viscous ice media, may influence the entire spectrum of the Pleistocene variability from orbital to millennial timescales.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 281–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Using the central theorem of dimensional analysis, the π theorem, we show that the relationship between the amplitude and duration of glacial cycles is governed by a property of scale invariance that does not depend on the physical nature of the underlying positive and negative feedbacks incorporated by the system. It thus turns out to be one of the most fundamental properties of the Pleistocene climate.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky, Michel Crucifix, and Dmitry M. Volobuev
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 257–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-257-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-257-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate here that nonlinear character of ice sheet dynamics, which was derived naturally from the conservation laws, is an effective means for propagating high-frequency forcing upscale.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky, Michel Crucifix, and Dmitry M. Volobuev
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1025–1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1025-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1025-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Using a dynamical climate model purely reduced from the conservation laws of ice-moving media, we show that ice-sheet physics coupled with a linear climate temperature feedback conceal enough dynamics to satisfactorily explain the system response over the full Pleistocene. There is no need, a priori, to call for a nonlinear response of, for example, the carbon cycle.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Guillaume Lenoir and Michel Crucifix
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 145–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-145-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-145-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a general framework for the frequency analysis of irregularly sampled time series. We also design a test of significance against a general background noise which encompasses the Gaussian white or red noise. Our results generalize and unify methods developed in the fields of geosciences, engineering, astronomy and astrophysics. All the analysis tools presented in this paper are available to the reader in the Python package WAVEPAL.
Guillaume Lenoir and Michel Crucifix
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 175–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-175-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-175-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
There is so far no general framework for handling the continuous wavelet transform when the time sampling is irregular. Here we provide such a framework with the Morlet wavelet, based on the results of part I of this study. We also design a test of significance against a general background noise which encompasses the Gaussian white or red noise. All the analysis tools presented in this article are available to the reader in the Python package WAVEPAL.
Natalie S. Lord, Michel Crucifix, Dan J. Lunt, Mike C. Thorne, Nabila Bounceur, Harry Dowsett, Charlotte L. O'Brien, and Andy Ridgwell
Clim. Past, 13, 1539–1571, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1539-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present projections of long-term changes in climate, produced using a statistical emulator based on climate data from a state-of-the-art climate model. We use the emulator to model changes in temperature and precipitation over the late Pliocene (3.3–2.8 million years before present) and the next 200 thousand years. The impact of the Earth's orbit and the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on climate is assessed, and the data for the late Pliocene are compared to proxy temperature data.
Paul J. Valdes, Edward Armstrong, Marcus P. S. Badger, Catherine D. Bradshaw, Fran Bragg, Michel Crucifix, Taraka Davies-Barnard, Jonathan J. Day, Alex Farnsworth, Chris Gordon, Peter O. Hopcroft, Alan T. Kennedy, Natalie S. Lord, Dan J. Lunt, Alice Marzocchi, Louise M. Parry, Vicky Pope, William H. G. Roberts, Emma J. Stone, Gregory J. L. Tourte, and Jonny H. T. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3715–3743, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the family of climate models used by the BRIDGE research group at the University of Bristol as well as by various other institutions. These models are based on the UK Met Office HadCM3 models and here we describe the various modifications which have been made as well as the key features of a number of configurations in use.
N. Bounceur, M. Crucifix, and R. D. Wilkinson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 205–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-205-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-205-2015, 2015
P. A. Araya-Melo, M. Crucifix, and N. Bounceur
Clim. Past, 11, 45–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-45-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-45-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
By using a statistical tool termed emulator, we study the sensitivity of the Indian monsoon during the the Pleistocene. The originality of the present work is to consider, as inputs, several elements of the climate forcing that have varied in the past, and then use the emulator as a method to quantify the link between forcing variability and climate variability. The methodology described here may naturally be applied to other regions of interest.
Q. Z. Yin, U. K. Singh, A. Berger, Z. T. Guo, and M. Crucifix
Clim. Past, 10, 1645–1657, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1645-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1645-2014, 2014
M. N. A. Maris, B. de Boer, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, M. Crucifix, W. J. van de Berg, and J. Oerlemans
The Cryosphere, 8, 1347–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1347-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1347-2014, 2014
M. Crucifix
Clim. Past, 9, 2253–2267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2253-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Topics: Oceans | Interactions: Ocean/atmosphere interactions | Methods: Earth system and climate modeling
Physics of AMOC multistable regime shifts due to freshwater biases in an EMIC
Effect of horizontal resolution in North Atlantic mixing and ocean circulation in the EC-Earth3P HighResMIP simulations
Generalized stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Dakar Niño under global warming investigated by a high-resolution regionally coupled model
Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep-ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3
Extremely warm European summers preceded by sub-decadal North Atlantic ocean heat accumulation
Amber A. Boot and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1221–1235, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1221-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1221-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element in the Earth system that affects the global climate. We often use models to understand how the AMOC tips. However, these models are flawed. Here we study the effect of these flaws on the AMOC multistable regime in a climate model. We artificially add additional flaws to the model. We find that AMOC stability can be affected by such flaws, and a reduction in such flaws in climate models is therefore thought to be essential.
Eneko Martin-Martinez, Amanda Frigola, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Daria Kuznetsova, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Margarida Samsó Cabré, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, and Pablo Ortega
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3625, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the impact of model resolution on different processes in the North Atlantic using three different resolutions of the same climate model. The higher resolutions allow for the explicit simulation of smaller-scale processes. We found differences across resolutions on how denser waters are formed and transported southward impacting the large-scale circulation of the Atlantic Ocean.
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1417–1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a fast Earth system model we trace the stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the combined freshwater forcing–atmospheric CO2 space. We find four different Atlantic meridional overturning circulation states that are stable under different conditions and a generally increasing equilibrium Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength with increasing CO2 concentrations.
Shunya Koseki, Rubén Vázquez, William Cabos, Claudia Gutiérrez, Dmitry V. Sein, and Marie-Lou Bachèlery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1401–1416, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a high-resolution regionally coupled model, we suggest that Dakar Niño variability will be reinforced under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. This may be induced by intensified surface heat flux anomalies and, secondarily, by anomalies in horizontal and vertical advection. Increased sea surface temperature (SST) variability can be associated with stronger wind variability, attributed to amplified surface temperature anomalies between ocean and land.
Federico Fabiano, Paolo Davini, Virna L. Meccia, Giuseppe Zappa, Alessio Bellucci, Valerio Lembo, Katinka Bellomo, and Susanna Corti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 527–546, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-527-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-527-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Even after the concentration of greenhouse gases is stabilized, the climate will continue to adapt, seeking a new equilibrium. We study this long-term stabilization through a set of 1000-year simulations, obtained by suddenly "freezing" the atmospheric composition at different levels. If frozen at the current state, global warming surpasses 3° in the long term with our model. We then study how climate impacts will change after various centuries and how the deep ocean will warm.
Lara Wallberg, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Daniela Matei, and Wolfgang A. Müller
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European summer temperatures are influenced by mechanisms on different timescales. We find that timescales of 5 to 10 years dominate the changes in summer temperature over large parts of the continent. Further, we find that specific processes within the North Atlantic, affecting the storage and transport of heat, cause changes in the atmosphere and extremely warm European summers. Our findings could be used for better forecasts of extremely warm European summers several years ahead.
Cited articles
Caesar, L., McCarthy, G., Thornalley, D., Cahill, N., and Rahmstorf, S.: Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium, Nat. Geosci., 14, 118–120, 2021. a
Cao, L., Eby, M., Ridgwell, A., Caldeira, K., Archer, D., Ishida, A., Joos, F., Matsumoto, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Mouchet, A., Orr, J. C., Plattner, G.-K., Schlitzer, R., Tokos, K., Totterdell, I., Tschumi, T., Yamanaka, Y., and Yool, A.: The role of ocean transport in the uptake of anthropogenic CO2, Biogeosciences, 6, 375–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-375-2009, 2009. a, b
Claussen, M., Mysak, L., Weaver, A., Crucifix, M., Fichefet, T., Loutre, M.-F., Weber, S. L., Alcamo, J., Alexeev, V., Berger, A., Calov, R., Ganopolski, A., Goosse, H., Lohmann, G., Lunkeit, F., Mokhov, I., Petoukhov, V., Stone, P., and Wang, Z.: Earth system models of intermediate complexity: closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system models, Clim. Dynam., 18, 579–586, 2002. a
Crichton, K. A., Wilson, J. D., Ridgwell, A., and Pearson, P. N.: Calibration of temperature-dependent ocean microbial processes in the cGENIE.muffin (v0.9.13) Earth system model, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 125–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-125-2021, 2021. a, b
Dijkstra, H. A.: Nonlinear physical oceanography: a dynamical systems approach to the large scale ocean circulation and El Niño, vol. 532, Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-2263-8, 2005. a, b, c
Edwards, N. R. and Marsh, R.: Uncertainties due to transport-parameter sensitivity in an efficient 3-D ocean-climate model, Clim. Dynam., 24, 415–433, 2005. a
Gutjahr, M., Ridgwell, A., Sexton, P. F., Anagnostou, E., Pearson, P. N., Pälike, H., Norris, R. D., Thomas, E., and Foster, G. L.: Very large release of mostly volcanic carbon during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, Nature, 548, 573–577, 2017. a
Hawkins, E., Smith, R. S., Allison, L. C., Gregory, J. M., Woollings, T. J., Pohlmann, H., and De Cuevas, B.: Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16699, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048997, 2011. a
Hibler, W. D.: A dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 9, 815–846, 1979. a
Hönisch, B., Ridgwell, A., Schmidt, D., Thomas, E., Gibbs, S., Sluijs, A., Zeebe, R., Kump, L., Martindale, R., Greene, S., Kiessling, W., Ries, J., Zachos, J. C., Royer, D., Barker, S., Marchitto, T., Moyer, R., Pelejero, C., Ziveri, P., and Williams, B.: The geological record of ocean acidification, Science, 335, 1058–1063, 2012. a
Jackson, L., Smith, R. S., and Wood, R.: Ocean and atmosphere feedbacks affecting AMOC hysteresis in a GCM, Clim. Dynam., 49, 173–191, 2017. a
Jackson, L. C., Alastrué de Asenjo, E., Bellomo, K., Danabasoglu, G., Haak, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Lee, W., Meccia, V. L., Saenko, O., Shao, A., and Swingedouw, D.: Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1975–1995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, 2023. a, b
Jungclaus, J., Haak, H., Esch, M., Roeckner, E., and Marotzke, J.: Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118782033.ch34, 2006. a
Keane, A., Pohl, A., Dijkstra, H. A., and Ridgwell, A.: A simple mechanism for stable oscillations in an intermediate complexity Earth System Model, arXiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2201.07883, 19 January 2022. a, b
Kilbourne, K., Wanamaker, A., Moffa-Sanchez, P., Reynolds, D., Amrhein, D., Butler, P., Gebbie, G., Goes, M., Jansen, M., Little, C., Mette, M., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Ortega, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Rossby, T., Scourse, J., and Whitney, N.: Atlantic circulation change still uncertain, Nat. Geosci., 15, 165–167, 2022. a
Latif, M., Sun, J., Visbeck, M., and Hadi Bordbar, M.: Natural variability has dominated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation since 1900, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 455–460, 2022. a
Lenton, T., Marsh, R., Price, A. R., Lunt, D., Aksenov, Y., Annan, J., Cooper-Chadwick, T., Cox, S. J., Edwards, N., Goswami, S., Hargreaves, J., Harris, P. P., Jiao, Z., Livina, V., Payne, A., Rutt, I. C., Shepherd, J., Valdes, P., Williams, G., and Yool, A.: Effects of atmospheric dynamics and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the thermohaline circulation examined using the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework, Clim. Dynam., 29, 591–613, 2007. a, b
Lenton, T. M., Myerscough, R. J., Marsh, R., Livina, V. N., Price, A. R., Cox, S. J., and GENIE team: Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 367, 871–884, 2009. a
Li, Y. and Yang, H.: A theory for self-sustained multicentennial oscillation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, J. Climate, 35, 5883–5896, 2022. a
Liu, W., Xie, S.-P., Liu, Z., and Zhu, J.: Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate, Sci. Adv., 3, e1601666, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601666, 2017. a
Lohmann, J. and Ditlevsen, P. D.: Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2017989118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2017989118, 2021. a
Lunt, D. J., Williamson, M. S., Valdes, P. J., Lenton, T. M., and Marsh, R.: Comparing transient, accelerated, and equilibrium simulations of the last 30 000 years with the GENIE-1 model, Clim. Past, 2, 221–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2-221-2006, 2006. a
Marsh, R., Edwards, N. R., and Shepherd, J. G.: Development of a fast climate model (C-GOLDSTEIN) for Earth System Science, Southampton Oceanography Centre, INTERNAL DOCUMENT No. 83, 2002. a
Marsh, R., Müller, S. A., Yool, A., and Edwards, N. R.: Incorporation of the C-GOLDSTEIN efficient climate model into the GENIE framework: “eb_go_gs” configurations of GENIE, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 957–992, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-957-2011, 2011. a, b
Marsh, R., Sóbester, A., Hart, E. E., Oliver, K. I. C., Edwards, N. R., and Cox, S. J.: An optimally tuned ensemble of the “eb_go_gs” configuration of GENIE: parameter sensitivity and bifurcations in the Atlantic overturning circulation, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1729–1744, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1729-2013, 2013. a
Marshall, J. and Plumb, R. A.: Atmosphere, ocean and climate dynamics: an introductory text, Academic Press, vol. 45, ISBN 0009-4978, 1523-8253, 2008. a
Mehling, O., Bellomo, K., Angeloni, M., Pasquero, C., and von Hardenberg, J.: High-latitude precipitation as a driver of multicentennial variability of the AMOC in a climate model of intermediate complexity, Clim. Dynam., 61, 1–16, 2022. a
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K. V., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M. L. T., Lamarque, J.-F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K., Thomson, A. M., Velders, G. J. M., and van Vuuren, D.: The RCP Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and their Extension from 1765 to 2300, Climatic Change, 109, 213, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011 (data available at: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/, last access: 21 March 2023). a
Ödalen, M., Nycander, J., Ridgwell, A., Oliver, K. I. C., Peterson, C. D., and Nilsson, J.: Variable C∕P composition of organic production and its effect on ocean carbon storage in glacial-like model simulations, Biogeosciences, 17, 2219–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2219-2020, 2020. a
Peltier, W. R. and Vettoretti, G.: Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations predicted in a comprehensive model of glacial climate: A “kicked” salt oscillator in the Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7306–7313, 2014. a
Rae, J. W. B., Gray, W. R., Wills, R. C. J., Eisenman, I., Fitzhugh, B., Fotheringham, M., Littley, E. F. M., Rafter, P. A., Rees-Owen, R., Ridgwell, A., Taylor, B., and Burke, A.: Overturning circulation, nutrient limitation, and warming in the Glacial North Pacific, Sci. Adv., 6, eabd1654, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd1654, 2020. a
Rahmstorf, S.: On the freshwater forcing and transport of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Clim. Dynam., 12, 799–811, 1996. a
Rahmstorf, S., Crucifix, M., Ganopolski, A., Goosse, H., Kamenkovich, I., Knutti, R., Lohmann, G., Marsh, R., Mysak, L., Wang, Z., and Weaver, A.: Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: A model intercomparison, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L23605, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023655, 2005. a, b, c, d, e
Rhein, M., Steinfeldt, R., Kieke, D., Stendardo, I., and Yashayaev, I.: Ventilation variability of Labrador Sea Water and its impact on oxygen and anthropogenic carbon: a review, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 375, 20160321, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0321, 2017. a
Ridgwell, A., Hargreaves, J. C., Edwards, N. R., Annan, J. D., Lenton, T. M., Marsh, R., Yool, A., and Watson, A.: Marine geochemical data assimilation in an efficient Earth System Model of global biogeochemical cycling, Biogeosciences, 4, 87–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-4-87-2007, 2007. a
Ridgwell, A., Reinhard, C., van de Velde, S., Adloff, M., Monteiro, F., Vervoort, P., Kanzaki, Y., Ward, B., Hülse, D., Wilson, J., InkyANB, Kirtland Turner, S., and Li, M.: derpycode/cgenie.muffin: v0.9.771dfd8 (v0.9.771dfd8), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10658783, 2024. a
Ridgwell, A., Hülse, D., Peterson, C., Ward, B., sjszas, evansmn, and Jones, R.: derpycode/muffindoc: v0.9.35 (v0.9.35), Zenodo [manual], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7545814, 2023. a
Sakai, K. and Peltier, W.: Dansgaard–Oeschger oscillations in a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model, J. Climate, 10, 949–970, 1997. a
Semtner Jr., A. J.: A model for the thermodynamic growth of sea ice in numerical investigations of climate, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 6, 379–389, 1976. a
Sévellec, F. and Fedorov, A. V.: Millennial variability in an idealized ocean model: predicting the AMOC regime shifts, J. Climate, 27, 3551–3564, 2014. a
Stommel, H.: Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes of flow, Tellus, 13, 224–230, 1961. a
Tamsitt, V., Drake, H., Morrison, A., Talley, L., Dufour, C., Gray, A., Griffies, S., Mazloff, M., Sarmiento, J., Wang, J., and Weijer, W.: Spiraling pathways of global deep waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean, Nat. Commun., 8, 172, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00197-0, 2017. a
Thornalley, D. J., Elderfield, H., and McCave, I. N.: Holocene oscillations in temperature and salinity of the surface subpolar North Atlantic, Nature, 457, 711–714, 2009. a
Thorpe, R., Gregory, J. M., Johns, T., Wood, R., and Mitchell, J.: Mechanisms determining the Atlantic thermohaline circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in a non-flux-adjusted coupled climate model, J. Climate, 14, 3102–3116, 2001. a
Vettoretti, G., Ditlevsen, P., Jochum, M., and Rasmussen, S. O.: Atmospheric CO2 control of spontaneous millennial-scale ice age climate oscillations, Nat. Geosci., 15, 300–306, 2022. a
Weaver, A., Eby, M.., Wiebe, E., Bitz, C., Duffy, P., Ewen, T., Fanning, A. F., Holland, M. M., McFadyen, A., Matthews, H. D., Meissner, K., Saenko, O., Schmittner, A., Wang, H., and Yoshimori, M.: The UVic Earth System Climate Model: Model Description, Climatology, and Applications to Past, Present and Future Climates, Atmos.-Ocean, 39, 361–428, 2001. a
Winton, M. and Sarachik, E.: Thermohaline oscillations induced by strong steady salinity forcing of ocean general circulation models, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 23, 1389–1410, 1993. a
Zhu, C., Liu, Z., Zhang, S., and Wu, L.: Likely accelerated weakening of Atlantic overturning circulation emerges in optimal salinity fingerprint, Nat. Commun., 14, 1245, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36288-4, 2023. a
Short summary
We used cGENIE, a climate model, to investigate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowdown under a warming scenario. We apply a diagnostic that was used in a previous study (Levang and Schmitt, 2020) to separate the temperature from salinity contribution to this slowdown. We find that, in our model, the initial slowdown of the AMOC was driven by temperature and that salinity takes the lead for the termination of the circulation.
We used cGENIE, a climate model, to investigate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint