Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
Research article
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18 Mar 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 18 Mar 2024

Possible role of anthropogenic climate change in the record-breaking 2020 Lake Victoria levels and floods

Rosa Pietroiusti, Inne Vanderkelen, Friederike E. L. Otto, Clair Barnes, Lucy Temple, Mary Akurut, Philippe Bally, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery

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Latest update: 28 Mar 2025
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This paper examines a highly impactful climate extreme in Africa - a region which is very vulnerable to climate change but has received comparatively little attention in the extreme event attribution literature. Its analysis brings event attribution science closer to societal impacts.
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Short summary
Heavy rainfall in eastern Africa between late 2019 and mid 2020 caused devastating floods and landslides and drove the levels of Lake Victoria to a record-breaking maximum in May 2020. In this study, we characterize the spatial extent and impacts of the floods in the Lake Victoria basin and investigate how human-induced climate change influenced the probability and intensity of the record-breaking lake levels and flooding by applying a multi-model extreme event attribution methodology.
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