Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1527-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1527-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Modeling 2020 regulatory changes in international shipping emissions helps explain anomalous 2023 warming
Ilaria Quaglia
Sibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
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Cited
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The role of reduced aerosol masking from air pollutant emission reductions in recent global warming acceleration (2013–2023) X. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2534130123
- A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit E. Bevacqua et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02246-9
- Reconciling Earth’s growing energy imbalance with ocean warming R. Allan & C. Merchant https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb448
- Global Hotspots of Whale–Ship Collision Risk: A Multi-Species Framework Integrating Critical Habitat Zonation and Shipping Pressure for Conservation Prioritization B. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani15142144
- Conflict-induced ship traffic disruptions constrain cloud sensitivity to stricter marine pollution regulations M. Diamond & L. Boss https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16401-2025
- Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic marine heatwave during 2023 M. England et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08903-5
- East Asian aerosol cleanup has likely contributed to the recent acceleration in global warming B. Samset et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02527-3
- The 2023/24 El Niño event exhibited unusually weak extratropical teleconnections L. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02584-8
- Quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on the record-high temperatures in 2023 and 2024 E. Farago et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-451-2026
- Multi-model analysis of the impact of water vapor on the radiative forcing of volcanic aerosols after the 2022 Hunga Eruption I. Quaglia et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7677-2026
- The ELK global emission inventory for the transport sectors M. Righi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-1619-2026
- Surface temperature effects of recent reductions in shipping SO2 emissions are within internal variability D. Watson-Parris et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025
- Recent Advances in the Observation and Modeling of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions, Cloud Feedbacks, and Earth’s Energy Imbalance: A Review T. Michibata et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40726-025-00382-6
- An intercomparison of aircraft sulfur dioxide measurements in clean and polluted marine environments L. Temple et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1165-2026
- Ship fuel sulfur content regulations may exacerbate mass coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef R. Ryan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03088-1
- Physical understanding of the extreme global temperature jump in 2023 J. Mex et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03382-6
- The observed September 2023 temperature jump was nearly impossible under standard anthropogenic forcing S. Seeber et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03178-8
- Decomposing the global and regional aerosol effective radiative forcing associated with strong versus weak air quality policies by Mid-21st century R. Allen et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae5418
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The role of reduced aerosol masking from air pollutant emission reductions in recent global warming acceleration (2013–2023) X. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2534130123
- A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit E. Bevacqua et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02246-9
- Reconciling Earth’s growing energy imbalance with ocean warming R. Allan & C. Merchant https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb448
- Global Hotspots of Whale–Ship Collision Risk: A Multi-Species Framework Integrating Critical Habitat Zonation and Shipping Pressure for Conservation Prioritization B. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani15142144
- Conflict-induced ship traffic disruptions constrain cloud sensitivity to stricter marine pollution regulations M. Diamond & L. Boss https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-16401-2025
- Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic marine heatwave during 2023 M. England et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08903-5
- East Asian aerosol cleanup has likely contributed to the recent acceleration in global warming B. Samset et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02527-3
- The 2023/24 El Niño event exhibited unusually weak extratropical teleconnections L. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02584-8
- Quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on the record-high temperatures in 2023 and 2024 E. Farago et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-451-2026
- Multi-model analysis of the impact of water vapor on the radiative forcing of volcanic aerosols after the 2022 Hunga Eruption I. Quaglia et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-7677-2026
- The ELK global emission inventory for the transport sectors M. Righi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-1619-2026
- Surface temperature effects of recent reductions in shipping SO2 emissions are within internal variability D. Watson-Parris et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-4443-2025
- Recent Advances in the Observation and Modeling of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions, Cloud Feedbacks, and Earth’s Energy Imbalance: A Review T. Michibata et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40726-025-00382-6
- An intercomparison of aircraft sulfur dioxide measurements in clean and polluted marine environments L. Temple et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1165-2026
- Ship fuel sulfur content regulations may exacerbate mass coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef R. Ryan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03088-1
- Physical understanding of the extreme global temperature jump in 2023 J. Mex et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03382-6
- The observed September 2023 temperature jump was nearly impossible under standard anthropogenic forcing S. Seeber et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03178-8
- Decomposing the global and regional aerosol effective radiative forcing associated with strong versus weak air quality policies by Mid-21st century R. Allen et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae5418
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 25 Jun 2026
Editorial statement
This paper qualifies as an ESD letter because it presents highly relevant results of the impact on shipping emissions on temperature trends.
This paper qualifies as an ESD letter because it presents highly relevant results of the impact...
Short summary
On 1 January 2020, international shipping vessels were required to substantially reduce the amount of particulate they emit to improve air quality. In this work we demonstrate how this regulatory change contributed to the anomalous warming observed in recent months using climate model simulations that include such a change. Future policies should also perhaps consider their impact on climate, and climate modelers should promptly include those changes in future modeling efforts.
On 1 January 2020, international shipping vessels were required to substantially reduce the...
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