Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 15, issue 5
Articles | Volume 15, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 15, issue 5
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
15 Oct 2024
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 15 Oct 2024

Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models

Abigail Snyder, Noah Prime, Claudia Tebaldi, and Kalyn Dorheim

Viewed

Total article views: 3,030 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
2,454 455 121 3,030 130 146
  • HTML: 2,454
  • PDF: 455
  • XML: 121
  • Total: 3,030
  • BibTeX: 130
  • EndNote: 146
Views and downloads (calculated since 05 Jan 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 05 Jan 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 3,030 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 2,944 with geography defined and 86 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 24 Nov 2025
Download
Chief editor
Earth System Models (ESMs) are used as inputs in impact models to estimate future climate risks. Hence, accurately representing the entire spectrum of uncertainty in ESMs is vital for comprehending the future co-evolution of the coupled human-natural system. Numerous ESMs are part of the CMIP6 suite and it is impossible to incorporate all of them in impact modeling. This study will help in selecting a suitable subset of ESMs that will reduce computing costs while preserving the range of uncertainty.
Read more
Short summary
From running climate models to using their outputs to identify impacts, modeling the integrated human–Earth system is expensive. This work presents a method to identify a smaller subset of models from the full set that preserves the uncertainty characteristics of the full set. This results in a smaller number of runs that an impact modeler can use to assess how uncertainty propagates from the Earth to the human system, while still capturing the range of outcomes provided by climate models.
Read more
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint