Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-817-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-817-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Aug 2023
Research article |
| 17 Aug 2023
| 17 Aug 2023
Understanding pattern scaling errors across a range of emissions pathways
Christopher D. Wells
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Priestley International Centre for Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Lawrence S. Jackson
Institute of Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Priestley International Centre for Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Amanda C. Maycock
Institute of Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Priestley International Centre for Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Piers M. Forster
Institute of Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Priestley International Centre for Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Estimating present temperature climate in a warming world: probabilistic verification of a model-based approach for years 2008–2025 J. Räisänen et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08336-4
- A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME) C. Mathison et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025
- Evidence that end-of-century emulation errors under overshoot remain largely within internal variability in an Earth system model S. Bouabid et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae9c58
- A theoretical framework to understand sources of error in Earth System Model emulation C. Womack et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-107-2026
- High radiative forcing climate scenario relevance analyzed with a ten-million-member ensemble M. Sarofim et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52437-9
- Fast climate impact emulation for global temperature scenarios with the rapid impact model emulator (RIME) E. Byers et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adee3d
- Assessing CMIP6 uncertainties at global warming levels G. Evin et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07323-x
- GeoMIP-Pattern – a pattern scaling dataset for efficient generation of custom geoengineering scenarios R. Muñoz-Sánchez et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05496-6
- fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections C. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024
- RIME-X v1.0: combining simple climate models, Earth system models, and climate impact models into a unified statistical emulator for regional climate indicators N. Schwind et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6797-2026
- Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot G. Munday et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02327-9
- A method for estimating the effect of climate change on monthly mean temperatures: September 2023 and other recent record‐warm months in Helsinki, Finland M. Rantanen et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1216
- Permafrost carbon release scales linearly with overshoot warming mediated by AMOC tipping N. Steinert et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73612-0
- Emulators of Climate Model Output C. Tebaldi et al. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012125-085838
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Estimating present temperature climate in a warming world: probabilistic verification of a model-based approach for years 2008–2025 J. Räisänen et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08336-4
- A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME) C. Mathison et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1785-2025
- Evidence that end-of-century emulation errors under overshoot remain largely within internal variability in an Earth system model S. Bouabid et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae9c58
- A theoretical framework to understand sources of error in Earth System Model emulation C. Womack et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-107-2026
- High radiative forcing climate scenario relevance analyzed with a ten-million-member ensemble M. Sarofim et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52437-9
- Fast climate impact emulation for global temperature scenarios with the rapid impact model emulator (RIME) E. Byers et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adee3d
- Assessing CMIP6 uncertainties at global warming levels G. Evin et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07323-x
- GeoMIP-Pattern – a pattern scaling dataset for efficient generation of custom geoengineering scenarios R. Muñoz-Sánchez et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05496-6
- fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections C. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024
- RIME-X v1.0: combining simple climate models, Earth system models, and climate impact models into a unified statistical emulator for regional climate indicators N. Schwind et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6797-2026
- Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot G. Munday et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02327-9
- A method for estimating the effect of climate change on monthly mean temperatures: September 2023 and other recent record‐warm months in Helsinki, Finland M. Rantanen et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1216
- Permafrost carbon release scales linearly with overshoot warming mediated by AMOC tipping N. Steinert et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-73612-0
- Emulators of Climate Model Output C. Tebaldi et al. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012125-085838
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 10 Sep 2026
Short summary
There are many possibilities for future emissions, with different impacts in different places. Complex models can study these impacts but take a long time to run, even on powerful computers. Simple methods can be used to reduce this time by estimating the complex model output, but these are not perfect. This study looks at the accuracy of one of these techniques, showing that there are limitations to its use, especially for low-emission future scenarios.
There are many possibilities for future emissions, with different impacts in different places....
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