Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023
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26 Jan 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 26 Jan 2023

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Iris Elisabeth de Vries, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline Greene Pendergrass, and Reto Knutti

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Latest update: 20 Jun 2024
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Detecting and attributing forced precipitation changes is a long-standing challenge in climate science. This study proposes an approach to efficiently extract information on forced precipitation changes from climate data and models, which can be valuable both from a scientific and policy-making perspective.
Short summary
Precipitation change is an important consequence of climate change, but it is hard to detect and quantify. Our intuitive method yields robust and interpretable detection of forced precipitation change in three observational datasets for global mean and extreme precipitation, but the different observational datasets show different magnitudes of forced change. Assessment and reduction of uncertainties surrounding forced precipitation change are important for future projections and adaptation.
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