Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
26 Jan 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 26 Jan 2023

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Iris Elisabeth de Vries, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline Greene Pendergrass, and Reto Knutti

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023-supplement

Data sets

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change – code and data I. E. de Vries https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000589377

NIMS-KMA KACE1.0-G model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP Y.-H. Byun, Y.-J. Lim, S. Shim, H. M. Sung, M. Sun, J. Kim, B.-H. Kim, J.-H. Lee, and H. Moon https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2242

NCC NorESM2-LM model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP O. Seland, M. Bentsen, D. J. L. Oliviè, T. Toniazzo, A. Gjermundsen, L. S. Graff, J. B. Debernard, A. K. Gupta, Y. He, A. Kirkevåg, J. Schwinger, J. Tjiputra, K. S. Aas, I. Bethke, Y. Fan, J. Griesfeller, A. Grini, C. Guo, M. Ilicak, I. H. H. Karset, O. A. Landgren, J. Liakka, K. O. Moseid, A. Nummelin, C. Spensberger, H. Tang, Z. Zhang, C. Heinze, T. Iversen, and M. Schulz https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.604

MPI-M MPIESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP K.-H. Wieners, M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Esch, M. Bittner, V. Gayler, H. Haak, P. de Vrese, T. Raddatz, T. Mauritsen, J.-S. von Storch, J. Behrens, V. Brovkin, M. Claussen, T. Crueger, I. Fast, S. Fiedler, S. Hagemann, C. Hohenegger, T. Jahns, S. Kloster, S. Kinne, G. Lasslop, L. Kornblueh, J. Marotzke, D. Matei, K. Meraner, U. Mikolajewicz, K. Modali, W. Müller, J. Nabel, D. Notz, K. Peters-von Gehlen, R. Pincus, H. Pohlmann, J. Pongratz, S. Rast, H. Schmidt, R. Schnur, U. Schulzweida, K. Six, B. Stevens, A. Voigt, and E. Roeckner https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.793

MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP P. Good, A. Sellar, Y. Tang, S. Rumbold, R. Ellis, D. Kelley, T. Kuhlbrodt, and J. Walton https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1567

MIROC MIROC6 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP H. Shiogama, M. Abe, and H. Tatebe https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.898

MIROC MIROC-ES2L model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP K. Tachiiri, M. Abe, T. Hajima, O. Arakawa, T. Suzuki, Y. Komuro, K. Ogochi, M. Watanabe, A. Yamamoto, H. Tatebe, M. A. Noguchi, R. Ohgaito, A. Ito, D. Yamazaki, A. Ito, K. Takata, S. Watanabe, and M. Kawamiya https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.936

IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP O. Boucher, S. Denvil, G. Levavasseur, A. Cozic, A. Caubel, M.-A. Foujols, Y. Meurdesoif, P. Cadule, M. Devilliers, E. Dupont, and T. Lurton https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1532

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP EC-Earth Consortium (EC-Earth) https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.251

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3-Veg model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP EC-Earth Consortium (EC-Earth) https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.727

CSIRO-ARCCSS ACCESS-CM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP M. Dix, D. Bi, P. Dobrohotoff, R. Fiedler, I. Harman, R. Law, C. Mackallah, S. Marsland, S. O'Farrell, H. Rashid, J. Srbinovsky, A. Sullivan, C. Trenham, P. Vohralik, I. Watterson, G. Williams, M. Woodhouse, R. Bodman, F. B. Dias, C. M. Domingues, N. Hannah, A. Heerdegen, A. Savita, S. Wales, C. Allen, K. Druken, B. Evans, C. Richards, S. M. Ridzwan, D. Roberts, J. Smillie, K. Snow, M. Ward, and R. Yang https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2285

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1317

CAS FGOALS-g3 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP L. Li https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2056

CSIRO ACCESS-ESM1.5 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP T. Ziehn, M. Chamberlain, A. Lenton, R. Law, R. Bodman, M. Dix, Y. Wang, P. Dobrohotoff, J. Srbinovsky, L. Stevens, P. Vohralik, C. Mackallah, A. Sullivan, S. O'Farrell, and K. Druken https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2291

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3673

CSIRO-ARCCSS ACCESS-CM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl M. Dix, D. Bi, P. Dobrohotoff, R. Fiedler, I. Harman, R. Law, C. Mackallah, S. Marsland, S. O'Farrell, H. Rashid, J. Srbinovsky, A. Sullivan, C. Trenham, P. Vohralik, I. Watterson, G. Williams, M. Woodhouse, R. Bodman, F. B. Dias, C. M. Domingues, N. Hannah, A. Heerdegen, A. Savita, S. Wales, C. Allen, K. Druken, B. Evans, C. Richards, S. M. Ridzwan, D. Roberts, J. Smillie, K. Snow, M. Ward, and R. Yang https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4311

IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl O. Boucher, S. Denvil, G. Levavasseur, A. Cozic, A. Caubel, M.-A. Foujols, Y. Meurdesoif, P. Cadule, M. Devilliers, J. Ghattas, N. Lebas, T. Lurton, L. Mellul, I. Musat, J. Mignot, and F. Cheruy https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5251

CSIRO ACCESS-ESM1.5 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl T. Ziehn, M. Chamberlain, A. Lenton, R. Law, R. Bodman, M. Dix, Y. Wang, P. Dobrohotoff, J. Srbinovsky, L. Stevens, P. Vohralik, C. Mackallah, A. Sullivan, S. O'Farrell, and K. Druken https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4312

MIROC MIROC-ES2L model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl T. Hajima, M. Abe, O. Arakawa, T. Suzuki, Y. Komuro, T. Ogura, K. Ogochi, M. Watanabe, A. Yamamoto, H. Tatebe, M. A. Noguchi, R. Ohgaito, A. Ito, D. Yamazaki, A. Ito, K. Takata, S. Watanabe, M. Kawamiya, and K. Tachiiri https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5710

MIROC MIROC6 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl H. Tatebe and M. Watanabe https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5711

MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl Y. Tang, S. Rumbold, R. Ellis, D. Kelley, J. Mulcahy, A. Sellar, J. Walton, and C. Jones https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6298

MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl K.-H. Wieners, M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Esch, M. Bittner, S. Legutke, M. Schupfner, F. Wachsmann, V. Gayler, H. Haak, P. de Vrese, T. Raddatz, T. Mauritsen, J.-S. von Storch, J. Behrens, V. Brovkin, M. Claussen, T. Crueger, I. Fast, S. Fiedler, S. Hagemann, C. Hohenegger, T. Jahns, S. Kloster, S. Kinne, G. Lasslop, L. Kornblueh, J. Marotzke, D. Matei, K. Meraner, U. Mikolajewicz, K. Modali, W. Müller, J. Nabel, D. Notz, K. Peters-von Gehlen, R. Pincus, H. Pohlmann, J. Pongratz, S. Rast, H. Schmidt, R. Schnur, U. Schulzweida, K. Six, B. Stevens, A. Voigt, and E. Roeckner https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6675

NCC NorESM2-LM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl Ø. Seland, M. Bentsen, D. J. L. Olivi\`{e}, T. Toniazzo, A. Gjermundsen, L. S. Graff, J. B. Debernard, A. K. Gupta, Y. He, A. Kirkev\r{a}g, J. Schwinger, J. Tjiputra, K. S. Aas, I. Bethke, Y. Fan, J. Griesfeller, A. Grini, C. Guo, M. Ilicak, I. H. H. Karset, O. A. Landgren, J Liakka, K. O. Moseid, A. Nummelin, C. Spensberger, H. Tang, Z. Zhang, C. Heinze, T. Iversen, and M. Schulz https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8217

NIMS-KMA KACE1.0-G model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP piControl Y.-H. Byun, Y.-J. Lim, H. M. Sung, J. Kim, M. Sun, and B.-H. Kim https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8425

Development of an Updated Global Land In Situ-Based Data Set of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: HadEX3 (https://www.climdex.org/access/) R. J. H. Dunn, L. V. Alexander, M. G. Donat, X. Zhang, M. Bador, N. Herold, T. Lippmann, R. Allan, E. Aguilar, A. A. Barry, M. Brunet, J. Caesar, G. Chagnaud, V. Cheng, T. Cinco, I. Durre, R. de Guzman, T. M. Htay, W. M. Wan Ibadullah, M. K. I. Bin Ibrahim, M. Khoshkam, A. Kruger, H. Kubota, T. W. Leng, G. Lim, L. Li-Sha, J. Marengo, S. Mbatha, S. McGree, M. Menne, M. de los Milagros Skansi, S. Ngwenya, F. Nkrumah, C. Oonariya, J. D. Pabon-Caicedo, G. Panthou, C. Pham, F. Rahimzadeh, A. Ramos, E. Salgado, J. Salinger, Y. Sané, A. Sopaheluwakan, A. Srivastava, Y. Sun, B. Timbal, N. Trachow, B. Trewin, G. van der Schrier, J. Vazquez-Aguirre, R. Vasquez, C. Villarroel, L. Vincent, T. Vischel, R. Vose, M. N.'A. Bin Hj Yussof https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032263

Global Land-Based Datasets for Monitoring Climatic Extremes (https://www.climdex.org/access/) M. Donat, L. Alexander, H. Yang, I. Durre, R. Vose, and J. Caesar https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00109.1

GPCC Climatology Version 2020 at 2.5°: Monthly Land-Surface Precipitation Climatology for Every Month and the Total Year from Rain-Gauges built on GTS-based and Historical Data E. Rustemeier, A. Becker, P. Finger, U. Schneider, and M. Ziese https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/CLIM_M_V2020_250

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Chief editor
Detecting and attributing forced precipitation changes is a long-standing challenge in climate science. This study proposes an approach to efficiently extract information on forced precipitation changes from climate data and models, which can be valuable both from a scientific and policy-making perspective.
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Short summary
Precipitation change is an important consequence of climate change, but it is hard to detect and quantify. Our intuitive method yields robust and interpretable detection of forced precipitation change in three observational datasets for global mean and extreme precipitation, but the different observational datasets show different magnitudes of forced change. Assessment and reduction of uncertainties surrounding forced precipitation change are important for future projections and adaptation.
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