Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-413-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-413-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Apr 2023
Research article |
| 14 Apr 2023
| 14 Apr 2023
The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC), University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Robert C. Jnglin Wills
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
Pedro DiNezio
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC), University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Jeremy Klavans
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC), University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Sebastian Milinski
Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
Sara C. Sanchez
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC), University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Samantha Stevenson
Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA
Malte F. Stuecker
Department of Oceanography and International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawai`i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
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- Increased longitudinal separation of equatorial rainfall responses to Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific El Niño under global warming Z. Yan et al. 10.1038/s41612-025-00933-0
- Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming T. Geng et al. 10.1038/s41586-023-06236-9
- Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth D. Swain et al. 10.1038/s43017-024-00624-z
- Interannual ENSO diversity, transitions, and projected changes in observations and climate models M. Freund et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad78db
- A global overview of marine heatwaves in a changing climate A. Capotondi et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01806-9
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- Collapsed upwelling projected to weaken ENSO under sustained warming beyond the twenty-first century Q. Peng et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02061-8
- Future climate response to observed strong El Niño analogues P. Trascasa-Castro et al. 10.1038/s41612-025-01003-1
- Projected increase in ENSO-induced US winter extreme hydroclimate events in SPEAR large ensemble simulation J. Hong et al. 10.1038/s41612-025-00972-7
- Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases A. Sobel et al. 10.1073/pnas.2209631120
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- The Impact of Eastern Pacific Warming on Future North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis K. Karnauskas et al. 10.1029/2023GL105551
- An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles J. Fasullo et al. 10.5194/esd-15-367-2024
- Physical mechanisms of meteorological drought development, intensification and termination: an Australian review C. Holgate et al. 10.1038/s43247-025-02179-3
- El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to a warmer world X. Zhang & G. Clow 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4c7c
- A Regime View of ENSO Flavors Through Clustering in CMIP6 Models P. Vaittinada Ayar et al. 10.1029/2022EF003460
- Towards understanding the robust strengthening of ENSO and more frequent extreme El Niño events in CMIP6 global warming simulations U. Heede & A. Fedorov 10.1007/s00382-023-06856-x
- Connecting the SST Pattern Problem and the Hot Model Problem M. Rugenstein et al. 10.1029/2023GL105488
- Amplification of Northern Hemisphere winter stationary waves in a warming world J. Lee et al. 10.1038/s41612-025-00898-0
- The climate variability trio: stochastic fluctuations, El Niño, and the seasonal cycle M. Stuecker 10.1186/s40562-023-00305-7
- Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming T. Geng et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-50156-9
- Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes W. Cai et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00427-8
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Drivers of future extratropical sea surface temperature variability changes in the North Pacific J. Gunnarson et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00702-5
- Relationship between south asian summer monsoon and ENSO primarily modulated by ENSO intensity based on two super large ensembles Z. Zhou et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07450-5
- Increased longitudinal separation of equatorial rainfall responses to Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific El Niño under global warming Z. Yan et al. 10.1038/s41612-025-00933-0
- Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming T. Geng et al. 10.1038/s41586-023-06236-9
- Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth D. Swain et al. 10.1038/s43017-024-00624-z
- Interannual ENSO diversity, transitions, and projected changes in observations and climate models M. Freund et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad78db
- A global overview of marine heatwaves in a changing climate A. Capotondi et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01806-9
- Analysis of Anomalies Due to the ENSO and Long-Term Changes in Extreme Precipitation Indices Using Data from Ground Stations L. Vargas-León & J. Giraldo-Osorio 10.3390/hydrology11010007
- Decreasing dynamic predictability of global agricultural drought with warming climate H. Wu et al. 10.1038/s41558-025-02289-y
- Variability in flood frequency in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of large-scale climate modes of variability and their future impacts J. Ekolu et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131679
- Collapsed upwelling projected to weaken ENSO under sustained warming beyond the twenty-first century Q. Peng et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02061-8
- Future climate response to observed strong El Niño analogues P. Trascasa-Castro et al. 10.1038/s41612-025-01003-1
- Projected increase in ENSO-induced US winter extreme hydroclimate events in SPEAR large ensemble simulation J. Hong et al. 10.1038/s41612-025-00972-7
- Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases A. Sobel et al. 10.1073/pnas.2209631120
- MIROC6 Large Ensemble (MIROC6-LE): experimental design and initial analyses H. Shiogama et al. 10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023
- Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world Q. Gu et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-48401-2
- Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5 A. King et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024
- The Impact of Eastern Pacific Warming on Future North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis K. Karnauskas et al. 10.1029/2023GL105551
- An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles J. Fasullo et al. 10.5194/esd-15-367-2024
- Physical mechanisms of meteorological drought development, intensification and termination: an Australian review C. Holgate et al. 10.1038/s43247-025-02179-3
- El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to a warmer world X. Zhang & G. Clow 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4c7c
- A Regime View of ENSO Flavors Through Clustering in CMIP6 Models P. Vaittinada Ayar et al. 10.1029/2022EF003460
- Towards understanding the robust strengthening of ENSO and more frequent extreme El Niño events in CMIP6 global warming simulations U. Heede & A. Fedorov 10.1007/s00382-023-06856-x
- Connecting the SST Pattern Problem and the Hot Model Problem M. Rugenstein et al. 10.1029/2023GL105488
- Amplification of Northern Hemisphere winter stationary waves in a warming world J. Lee et al. 10.1038/s41612-025-00898-0
- The climate variability trio: stochastic fluctuations, El Niño, and the seasonal cycle M. Stuecker 10.1186/s40562-023-00305-7
- Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming T. Geng et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-50156-9
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 28 Mar 2025
Short summary
Understanding whether the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to change in the future is important due to its widespread impacts. By using large ensembles, we can robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO variability in 14 climate models. We find that ENSO variability evolves in a nonlinear fashion in many models and that there are large differences between models. These nonlinear changes imply that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.
Understanding whether the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to change in the future...
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