Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-413-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-413-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC), University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Robert C. Jnglin Wills
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
Pedro DiNezio
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC), University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Jeremy Klavans
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC), University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Sebastian Milinski
Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
Sara C. Sanchez
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (ATOC), University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Samantha Stevenson
Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA
Malte F. Stuecker
Department of Oceanography and International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawai`i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
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Cited
46 citations as recorded by crossref.
- El Niño-like warming underestimated in a warmer climate due to ENSO rectification effect Y. Chen et al.
- Present-day tropical precipitation and cloud feedbacks determine future equatorial Pacific trends S. Stevenson et al.
- Drivers of future extratropical sea surface temperature variability changes in the North Pacific J. Gunnarson et al.
- Observation-based estimate of Earth’s effective radiative forcing S. Van Loon et al.
- Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming T. Geng et al.
- Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth D. Swain et al.
- Uncertain dynamic response of mid-latitude winter precipitation L. Gu et al.
- Interannual ENSO diversity, transitions, and projected changes in observations and climate models M. Freund et al.
- A global overview of marine heatwaves in a changing climate A. Capotondi et al.
- Analysis of Anomalies Due to the ENSO and Long-Term Changes in Extreme Precipitation Indices Using Data from Ground Stations L. Vargas-León & J. Giraldo-Osorio
- Bridging large-scale and coastal variability to improve seasonal sea level predictions along the U.S. and Canadian West Coast Q. Gu et al.
- Variability in flood frequency in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of large-scale climate modes of variability and their future impacts J. Ekolu et al.
- Human emissions drive recent trends in North Pacific climate variations J. Klavans et al.
- Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Australia A. Taschetto et al.
- Projected increase in ENSO-induced US winter extreme hydroclimate events in SPEAR large ensemble simulation J. Hong et al.
- MIROC6 Large Ensemble (MIROC6-LE): experimental design and initial analyses H. Shiogama et al.
- Physical mechanisms of meteorological drought development, intensification and termination: an Australian review C. Holgate et al.
- Snowpack decline kindles more severe fire in the western United States J. Balik et al.
- Projected changes in tropical instability wave activity in the Pacific Ocean under greenhouse warming A. Xue et al.
- Ten new insights in climate science 2024 R. Schaeffer et al.
- Biases in ENSO response to greenhouse warming induced by ensemble-mean detrending in large ensemble simulations S. Wu et al.
- Variability of Australian climate and future changes I. Watterson & M. Hassim
- Connecting the SST Pattern Problem and the Hot Model Problem M. Rugenstein et al.
- Amplification of Northern Hemisphere winter stationary waves in a warming world J. Lee et al.
- The climate variability trio: stochastic fluctuations, El Niño, and the seasonal cycle M. Stuecker
- Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming T. Geng et al.
- Unraveling non-monotonic responses of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to post-2100 global warming M. Hayashi et al.
- Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation M. Stuecker et al.
- Persistent Northeast Pacific marine heatwaves are sensitive to the seasonality of tropical and North Pacific dynamics T. Xu et al.
- Relationship between south asian summer monsoon and ENSO primarily modulated by ENSO intensity based on two super large ensembles Z. Zhou et al.
- Increased longitudinal separation of equatorial rainfall responses to Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific El Niño under global warming Z. Yan et al.
- ENSO and the Temperature of the North Equatorial Counter Current D. Webb
- Decreasing dynamic predictability of global agricultural drought with warming climate H. Wu et al.
- Collapsed upwelling projected to weaken ENSO under sustained warming beyond the twenty-first century Q. Peng et al.
- Future climate response to observed strong El Niño analogues P. Trascasa-Castro et al.
- Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases A. Sobel et al.
- Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world Q. Gu et al.
- Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5 A. King et al.
- The Impact of Eastern Pacific Warming on Future North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis K. Karnauskas et al.
- An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles J. Fasullo et al.
- The role of internal variability and external forcing on the emergence of hot and dry compound extremes in the CESM2 large ensemble A. Dwyer et al.
- El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to a warmer world X. Zhang & G. Clow
- Transferring climate change physical knowledge F. Immorlano et al.
- The updated Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive and the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package: new tools for the study of climate variability and change N. Maher et al.
- A Regime View of ENSO Flavors Through Clustering in CMIP6 Models P. Vaittinada Ayar et al.
- Towards understanding the robust strengthening of ENSO and more frequent extreme El Niño events in CMIP6 global warming simulations U. Heede & A. Fedorov
46 citations as recorded by crossref.
- El Niño-like warming underestimated in a warmer climate due to ENSO rectification effect Y. Chen et al.
- Present-day tropical precipitation and cloud feedbacks determine future equatorial Pacific trends S. Stevenson et al.
- Drivers of future extratropical sea surface temperature variability changes in the North Pacific J. Gunnarson et al.
- Observation-based estimate of Earth’s effective radiative forcing S. Van Loon et al.
- Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming T. Geng et al.
- Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth D. Swain et al.
- Uncertain dynamic response of mid-latitude winter precipitation L. Gu et al.
- Interannual ENSO diversity, transitions, and projected changes in observations and climate models M. Freund et al.
- A global overview of marine heatwaves in a changing climate A. Capotondi et al.
- Analysis of Anomalies Due to the ENSO and Long-Term Changes in Extreme Precipitation Indices Using Data from Ground Stations L. Vargas-León & J. Giraldo-Osorio
- Bridging large-scale and coastal variability to improve seasonal sea level predictions along the U.S. and Canadian West Coast Q. Gu et al.
- Variability in flood frequency in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of large-scale climate modes of variability and their future impacts J. Ekolu et al.
- Human emissions drive recent trends in North Pacific climate variations J. Klavans et al.
- Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Australia A. Taschetto et al.
- Projected increase in ENSO-induced US winter extreme hydroclimate events in SPEAR large ensemble simulation J. Hong et al.
- MIROC6 Large Ensemble (MIROC6-LE): experimental design and initial analyses H. Shiogama et al.
- Physical mechanisms of meteorological drought development, intensification and termination: an Australian review C. Holgate et al.
- Snowpack decline kindles more severe fire in the western United States J. Balik et al.
- Projected changes in tropical instability wave activity in the Pacific Ocean under greenhouse warming A. Xue et al.
- Ten new insights in climate science 2024 R. Schaeffer et al.
- Biases in ENSO response to greenhouse warming induced by ensemble-mean detrending in large ensemble simulations S. Wu et al.
- Variability of Australian climate and future changes I. Watterson & M. Hassim
- Connecting the SST Pattern Problem and the Hot Model Problem M. Rugenstein et al.
- Amplification of Northern Hemisphere winter stationary waves in a warming world J. Lee et al.
- The climate variability trio: stochastic fluctuations, El Niño, and the seasonal cycle M. Stuecker
- Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming T. Geng et al.
- Unraveling non-monotonic responses of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to post-2100 global warming M. Hayashi et al.
- Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation M. Stuecker et al.
- Persistent Northeast Pacific marine heatwaves are sensitive to the seasonality of tropical and North Pacific dynamics T. Xu et al.
- Relationship between south asian summer monsoon and ENSO primarily modulated by ENSO intensity based on two super large ensembles Z. Zhou et al.
- Increased longitudinal separation of equatorial rainfall responses to Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific El Niño under global warming Z. Yan et al.
- ENSO and the Temperature of the North Equatorial Counter Current D. Webb
- Decreasing dynamic predictability of global agricultural drought with warming climate H. Wu et al.
- Collapsed upwelling projected to weaken ENSO under sustained warming beyond the twenty-first century Q. Peng et al.
- Future climate response to observed strong El Niño analogues P. Trascasa-Castro et al.
- Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases A. Sobel et al.
- Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world Q. Gu et al.
- Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5 A. King et al.
- The Impact of Eastern Pacific Warming on Future North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis K. Karnauskas et al.
- An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles J. Fasullo et al.
- The role of internal variability and external forcing on the emergence of hot and dry compound extremes in the CESM2 large ensemble A. Dwyer et al.
- El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to a warmer world X. Zhang & G. Clow
- Transferring climate change physical knowledge F. Immorlano et al.
- The updated Multi-Model Large Ensemble Archive and the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package: new tools for the study of climate variability and change N. Maher et al.
- A Regime View of ENSO Flavors Through Clustering in CMIP6 Models P. Vaittinada Ayar et al.
- Towards understanding the robust strengthening of ENSO and more frequent extreme El Niño events in CMIP6 global warming simulations U. Heede & A. Fedorov
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 08 May 2026
Short summary
Understanding whether the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to change in the future is important due to its widespread impacts. By using large ensembles, we can robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO variability in 14 climate models. We find that ENSO variability evolves in a nonlinear fashion in many models and that there are large differences between models. These nonlinear changes imply that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.
Understanding whether the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to change in the future...
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