Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
Research article
 | 
01 Feb 2023
Research article |  | 01 Feb 2023

Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model

Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz

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Latest update: 25 Oct 2025
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Short summary
For the first time, our decadal prediction system based on Max Planck Institute Earth System Model enables prognostic atmospheric CO2 with an interactive carbon cycle. The evolution of CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 growth is reconstructed well by assimilating data products; retrospective predictions show high confidence in predicting changes in the next year. The Earth system predictions provide valuable inputs for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate-relevant policy.
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