Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model

Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana; Loughran, Tammas; Spring, Aaron; Pongratz, Julia

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023

Articles | Volume 14, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 14, issue 1

Research article

|

01 Feb 2023

Research article |

| 01 Feb 2023

Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model

Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz

Data sets

Reproducibility repository for ``Li, H., Ilyina, T., Loughran, T., Spring, A., and Pongratz, J.: Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model. Earth System Dynamics'' H. Li https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0009-6B84-A

Short summary

For the first time, our decadal prediction system based on Max Planck Institute Earth System Model enables prognostic atmospheric CO₂ with an interactive carbon cycle. The evolution of CO₂ fluxes and atmospheric CO₂ growth is reconstructed well by assimilating data products; retrospective predictions show high confidence in predicting changes in the next year. The Earth system predictions provide valuable inputs for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate-relevant policy.