Global and northern-high-latitude net ecosystem production in the 21st century from CMIP6 experiments

Qiu, Han; Hao, Dalei; Zeng, Yelu; Zhang, Xuesong; Chen, Min

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1-2023

Articles | Volume 14, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 14, issue 1

Research article

|

09 Jan 2023

Research article |

| 09 Jan 2023

Global and northern-high-latitude net ecosystem production in the 21st century from CMIP6 experiments

Han Qiu, Dalei Hao, Yelu Zeng, Xuesong Zhang, and Min Chen

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1-2023-supplement

Data sets

CSIRO ACCESS-ESM1.5 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP T. Ziehn, M. Chamberlain, A. Lenton, R. Law, R. Bodman, M. Dix, Y. Wang, P. Dobrohotoff, J. Srbinovsky, L. Stevens, P. Vohralik, C. Mackallah, A. Sullivan, S. O’Farrell, and K. Druken https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4320

BCC BCC-CSM2MR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP X. Xin, T. Wu, X. Shi, F. Zhang, J. Li, M. Chu, Q. Liu, J. Yan, Q. Ma, and M. Wei https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3028

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, B., and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3683

NCC NorESM2-LM model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP Ø. Seland, M. Bentsen, D. J. L. Oliviè, T. Toniazzo, A. Gjermundsen, L. S. Graff, J. B. Debernard, A. K. Gupta, Y. He, A. Kirkevåg, J. Schwinger, J. Tjiputra, K. S. Aas, I. Bethke, Y. Fan, J. Griesfeller, A. Grini, C. Guo, M. Ilicak, I. H. H. Karset, O. A. Landgren, J. Liakka, K. O. Moseid, A. Nummelin, C. Spensberger, H. Tang, Z. Zhang, C. Heinze, T. Iversen, and M. Schulz https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8248

NCC NorESM2-MM model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP M. Bentsen, D. J. L. Oliviè, Ø. Seland, T. Toniazzo, A. Gjermundsen, L. S. Graff, J. B. Debernard, A. K. Gupta, Y. He, A. Kirkevåg, J. Schwinger, J. Tjiputra, K. S. Aas, I. Bethke, Y. Fan, J. Griesfeller, A. Grini, C. Guo, M. Ilicak, I. H. H. Karset, O. A. Landgren, J. Liakka, K. O. Moseid, A. Nummelin, C. Spensberger, H. Tang, Z. Zhang, C. Heinze, T. Iversen, and M. Schulz https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.8250

NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP G. Danabasoglu https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10100

CMCC CMCC-CM2-SR5 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMI T. Lovato and D. Peano https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3887

EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3-Veg model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP EC-Earth Consortium (EC-Earth) https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4876

IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP O. Boucher, S. Denvil, G. Levavasseur, A. Cozic, A. Caubel, M.-A. Foujols, Y. Meurdesoif, P. Cadule, M. Devilliers, E. Dupont, and T. Lurton https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5262

MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP K.-H. Wieners, M. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. Reick, M. Esch, M. Bittner, V. Gayler, H. Haak, P. de Vrese, T. Raddatz, T. Mauritsen, J.-S. von Storch, J. Behrens, V. Brovkin, M. Claussen, T. Crueger, I. Fast, S. Fiedler, S. Hagemann, C. Hohenegger, T. Jahns, S. Kloster, S. Kinne, G. Lasslop, L. Kornblueh, J. Marotzke, D. Matei, K. Meraner, U. Mikolajewicz, K. Modali, W. Müller, J. Nabel, D. Notz, K. Peters-von Gehlen, R. Pincus, H. Pohlmann, J. Pongratz, S. Rast, H. Schmidt, R. Schnur, U. Schulzweida, K. Six, B. Stevens, A. Voigt, and E. Roeckner https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6690

CMIP6-carbonflux H. Qiu https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4768532

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Short summary

The carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems is complex. In our analyses, we found that both the global and the northern-high-latitude (NHL) ecosystems will continue to have positive net ecosystem production (NEP) in the next few decades under four global change scenarios but with large uncertainties. NHL ecosystems will experience faster climate warming but steadily contribute a small fraction of the global NEP. However, the relative uncertainty of NHL NEP is much larger than the global values.