Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
01 Jun 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 01 Jun 2022
| 01 Jun 2022
Glacial runoff buffers droughts through the 21st century
Department of Geology, Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT, USA
Sloan Coats
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hawaii at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
Jonathan Mackay
British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, UK
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, UK
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Cited
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Machine learning improves seasonal mass balance prediction for unmonitored glaciers K. Sjursen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5801-2025
- Less water from glaciers during future megadroughts in the Southern Andes Á. Ayala et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6
- Cascading downstream impacts of water cycle changes in mountain regions D. Viviroli et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02552-2
- Assessment of climate change impacts on glacio-hydrological processes and their variations within critical zone M. Shafeeque et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05661-9
- Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C L. Schuster et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02318-w
- The foundations of the Patagonian icefields J. Fürst et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01193-7
- Effects of climate change on runoff in a representative Himalayan basin assessed through optimal integration of multi-source precipitation data Y. Xiang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101828
- ITS_LIVE global glacier velocity data in near-real time A. Gardner et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3517-2025
- Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance L. van der Laan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3879-2025
- Twenty-first century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations H. Zekollari et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024
- Physically based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes J. Mackay et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025
- Increasing glacier end-of-summer snowline altitudes in the trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh M. Soheb et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2026.2675789
- Constraining sub-seasonal glacier mass balance in the Swiss Alps using Sentinel-2-derived snow-cover observations A. Cremona et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2025.1
- Swiss glacier mass loss during the 2022 drought: persistent streamflow contributions amid declining melt water volumes M. van Tiel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-23-2026
- Contribution of glaciers to water, energy and food security in mountain regions: current perspectives and future priorities C. Clason et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.14
- European heat waves 2022: contribution to extreme glacier melt in Switzerland inferred from automated ablation readings A. Cremona et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1895-2023
- Drought propagation in the Indus Basin and the importance of snow and glacier melt in drought mitigation L. van den Bos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102581
- Coupling a large-scale glacier and hydrological model (OGGM v1.5.3 and CWatM V1.08) – towards an improved representation of mountain water resources in global assessments S. Hanus et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024
- A global perspective on the development and application of glacio-hydrological model C. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132797
- Quantifying climate-induced cascading effects on runoff in a cold region using a glacier-enhanced Budyko framework Y. You et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135285
- Unravelling the sources of uncertainty in glacier runoff projections in the Patagonian Andes (40–56° S) R. Aguayo et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024
- Projected decline in glacier runoff contribution during drought periods across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134583
- Glacial buffering maintains recent runoff stability amid warming and wetting in Central Asia Y. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2026.113763
- A scenario–neutral approach to climate change in glacier mass balance modeling L. van der Laan et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2024.22
- CMIP6 climate model spread outweighs glacier model spread in 21st-century drought buffering projections L. Ultee et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1339-2026
- Hydrological response to the summer 2024 high-elevation heatwave in Central-Western Argentina J. Rivera et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-025-02472-z
- AGILE v0.1: The Open Global Glacier Data Assimilation Framework P. Schmitt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1301-2026
- Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world's major river basins F. Wimberly et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025
- Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies L. Schuster et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.57
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Machine learning improves seasonal mass balance prediction for unmonitored glaciers K. Sjursen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5801-2025
- Less water from glaciers during future megadroughts in the Southern Andes Á. Ayala et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02845-6
- Cascading downstream impacts of water cycle changes in mountain regions D. Viviroli et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02552-2
- Assessment of climate change impacts on glacio-hydrological processes and their variations within critical zone M. Shafeeque et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05661-9
- Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C L. Schuster et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02318-w
- The foundations of the Patagonian icefields J. Fürst et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01193-7
- Effects of climate change on runoff in a representative Himalayan basin assessed through optimal integration of multi-source precipitation data Y. Xiang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101828
- ITS_LIVE global glacier velocity data in near-real time A. Gardner et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3517-2025
- Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance L. van der Laan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3879-2025
- Twenty-first century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations H. Zekollari et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024
- Physically based modelling of glacier evolution under climate change in the tropical Andes J. Mackay et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-685-2025
- Increasing glacier end-of-summer snowline altitudes in the trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh M. Soheb et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2026.2675789
- Constraining sub-seasonal glacier mass balance in the Swiss Alps using Sentinel-2-derived snow-cover observations A. Cremona et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2025.1
- Swiss glacier mass loss during the 2022 drought: persistent streamflow contributions amid declining melt water volumes M. van Tiel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-23-2026
- Contribution of glaciers to water, energy and food security in mountain regions: current perspectives and future priorities C. Clason et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.14
- European heat waves 2022: contribution to extreme glacier melt in Switzerland inferred from automated ablation readings A. Cremona et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1895-2023
- Drought propagation in the Indus Basin and the importance of snow and glacier melt in drought mitigation L. van den Bos et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102581
- Coupling a large-scale glacier and hydrological model (OGGM v1.5.3 and CWatM V1.08) – towards an improved representation of mountain water resources in global assessments S. Hanus et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5123-2024
- A global perspective on the development and application of glacio-hydrological model C. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132797
- Quantifying climate-induced cascading effects on runoff in a cold region using a glacier-enhanced Budyko framework Y. You et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135285
- Unravelling the sources of uncertainty in glacier runoff projections in the Patagonian Andes (40–56° S) R. Aguayo et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-5383-2024
- Projected decline in glacier runoff contribution during drought periods across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134583
- Glacial buffering maintains recent runoff stability amid warming and wetting in Central Asia Y. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2026.113763
- A scenario–neutral approach to climate change in glacier mass balance modeling L. van der Laan et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2024.22
- CMIP6 climate model spread outweighs glacier model spread in 21st-century drought buffering projections L. Ultee et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1339-2026
- Hydrological response to the summer 2024 high-elevation heatwave in Central-Western Argentina J. Rivera et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-025-02472-z
- AGILE v0.1: The Open Global Glacier Data Assimilation Framework P. Schmitt et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-1301-2026
- Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world's major river basins F. Wimberly et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1491-2025
- Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies L. Schuster et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.57
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 09 Jun 2026
Short summary
Global climate models suggest that droughts could worsen over the coming century. In mountain basins with glaciers, glacial runoff can ease droughts, but glaciers are retreating worldwide. We analyzed how one measure of drought conditions changes when accounting for glacial runoff that changes over time. Surprisingly, we found that glacial runoff can continue to buffer drought throughout the 21st century in most cases, even as the total amount of runoff declines.
Global climate models suggest that droughts could worsen over the coming century. In mountain...
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