Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Koven, Charles D.; Arora, Vivek K.; Cadule, Patricia; Fisher, Rosie A.; Jones, Chris D.; Lawrence, David M.; Lewis, Jared; Lindsay, Keith; Mathesius, Sabine; Meinshausen, Malte; Mills, Michael; Nicholls, Zebedee; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Séférian, Roland; Swart, Neil C.; Wieder, William R.; Zickfeld, Kirsten

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022

Articles | Volume 13, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 13, issue 2

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

16 May 2022

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 16 May 2022

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Charles D. Koven, Vivek K. Arora, Patricia Cadule, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, David M. Lawrence, Jared Lewis, Keith Lindsay, Sabine Mathesius, Malte Meinshausen, Michael Mills, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Neil C. Swart, William R. Wieder, and Kirsten Zickfeld

Data sets

IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical O. Boucher, S. Denvil, A. Caubel, and M. A. Foujols https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5195

IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp534-over O. Boucher, S. Denvil, A. Caubel, and M. A. Foujols https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5269

IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp585 O. Boucher, S. Denvil, A. Caubel, and M. A. Foujols https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5271

NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical G. Danabasoglu https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10071

NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp534-over G. Danabasoglu https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10114

NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp585 G. Danabasoglu https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10115

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3610

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp534-over N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3694

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp585 N. C. Swart, J. N. S. Cole, V. V. Kharin, M. Lazare, J. F. Scinocca, N. P. Gillett, J. Anstey, V. Arora, J. R. Christian, Y. Jiao, W. G. Lee, F. Majaess, O. A. Saenko, C. Seiler, C. Seinen, A. Shao, L. Solheim, K. von Salzen, D. Yang, B. Winter, and M. Sigmond https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3696

MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical Y. Tang, S. Rumbold, R. Ellis, D. Kelley, J. Mulcahy, A. Sellar, J. Walton, and C. Jones https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3696

MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp534-over P. Good, A. Sellar, Y. Tang, S. Rumbold, R. Ellis, D. Kelley, and T. Kuhlbrodt https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6397

MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp585 P. Good, A. Sellar, Y. Tang, S. Rumbold, R. Ellis, D. Kelley, and T. Kuhlbrodt https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6405

UVic ESCM simulations of historical period, SSP1-2.6, SSP5-3.4-OS, and SSP5-8.5 S. Mathesius and K. Zickfeld https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.4663137

CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical R. Seferian https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4068

CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp534-over A. Voldoire https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4221

CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp585 A. Voldoire https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4226

ckoven/longterm_carboncycle: Release v1.0.0 C. Koven https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.5934643

Short summary

We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300 using six models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.