Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
16 May 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 16 May 2022
| 16 May 2022
Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
Vivek K. Arora
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and
Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia,
Canada
Patricia Cadule
IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Universiteì, Paris, France
Rosie A. Fisher
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
Évolution & Diversité Biologique, University of Toulouse
Paul Sabatier III, Toulouse, France
Chris D. Jones
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
David M. Lawrence
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Jared Lewis
Climate and Energy College, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
Climate Resource, Victoria, Australia
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, Austria
Keith Lindsay
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Sabine Mathesius
Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British
Columbia, Canada
now at: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Malte Meinshausen
Climate and Energy College, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
Climate Resource, Victoria, Australia
Michael Mills
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Zebedee Nicholls
Climate and Energy College, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
Climate Resource, Victoria, Australia
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, Austria
Benjamin M. Sanderson
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
Roland Séférian
CNRM (Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS),
Toulouse, France
Neil C. Swart
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and
Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia,
Canada
William R. Wieder
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado,
Boulder, Colorado, USA
Kirsten Zickfeld
Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British
Columbia, Canada
Viewed
Total article views: 9,456 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 22 Apr 2021)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,605 | 2,646 | 205 | 9,456 | 203 | 225 |
- HTML: 6,605
- PDF: 2,646
- XML: 205
- Total: 9,456
- BibTeX: 203
- EndNote: 225
Total article views: 6,412 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 16 May 2022)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5,066 | 1,181 | 165 | 6,412 | 174 | 200 |
- HTML: 5,066
- PDF: 1,181
- XML: 165
- Total: 6,412
- BibTeX: 174
- EndNote: 200
Total article views: 3,044 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 22 Apr 2021)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,539 | 1,465 | 40 | 3,044 | 29 | 25 |
- HTML: 1,539
- PDF: 1,465
- XML: 40
- Total: 3,044
- BibTeX: 29
- EndNote: 25
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 9,456 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 8,861 with geography defined
and 595 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 6,412 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 6,111 with geography defined
and 301 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 3,044 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 2,750 with geography defined
and 294 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
42 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Change in negative emission burden between an overshoot versus peak-shaved stratospheric aerosol injection pathway S. Baur et al. 10.5194/esd-16-667-2025
- Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433
- The impacts of modelling prescribed vs. dynamic land cover in a high-CO2 future scenario – greening of the Arctic and Amazonian dieback S. Kou-Giesbrecht et al. 10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024
- Understanding land-based carbon dioxide removal in the context of the Rio Conventions K. Dooley et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.08.009
- Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations N. Vakilifard et al. 10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022
- Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions V. Chimuka et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023
- Optimal design of a sector-coupled renewable methanol production amid political goals and expected conflicts: Costs vs. land use T. Svitnič et al. 10.1016/j.spc.2023.12.003
- Much of zero emissions commitment occurs before reaching net zero emissions C. Koven et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acab1a
- Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios P. Pfleiderer et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1c45
- Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1480208
- Physical inconsistencies in the representation of the ocean heat-carbon nexus in simple climate models R. Séférian et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01464-x
- Tipping point in North American Arctic-Boreal carbon sink persists in new generation Earth system models despite reduced uncertainty R. Braghiere et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acb226
- Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot G. Munday et al. 10.1038/s41558-025-02327-9
- Projected Changes in SWA over the Main BRI Regions for Net-Zero and Net-Negative Future J. He et al. 10.34133/ehs.0145
- Earth system responses to carbon dioxide removal as exemplified by ocean alkalinity enhancement: tradeoffs and lags A. Jeltsch-Thömmes et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4401
- Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges K. Dooley et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-53466-0
- Interplay between climate and carbon cycle feedbacks could substantially enhance future warming C. Kaufhold et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adb6be
- Compensatory Effects Between CO2, Nitrogen Deposition, and Nitrogen Fertilization in Terrestrial Biosphere Models Without Nitrogen Compromise Projections of the Future Terrestrial Carbon Sink S. Kou‐Giesbrecht & V. Arora 10.1029/2022GL102618
- A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs) M. Meinshausen et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024
- AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization Y. Silvy et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024
- Tracer-based Rapid Anthropogenic Carbon Estimation (TRACE) B. Carter et al. 10.5194/essd-17-3073-2025
- Warmer ecosystems save their breath A. Johnston 10.1038/s41558-025-02382-2
- Evidence and attribution of the enhanced land carbon sink S. Ruehr et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00456-3
- Hysteresis area at the canopy level during and after a drought event in the Central Amazon B. Gimenez et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110052
- The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization S. Palazzo Corner et al. 10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744
- Investigating carbon and nitrogen conservation in reported CMIP6 Earth system model data G. Tang et al. 10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025
- Continued permafrost ecosystem carbon loss under net-zero and negative emissions S. Park et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adn8819
- Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society T. Stocker et al. 10.1007/s10712-024-09844-w
- Long‐Term Slowdown of Ocean Carbon Uptake by Alkalinity Dynamics M. Chikamoto et al. 10.1029/2022GL101954
- Substantial shift in phase and amplitude of Indian rainfall beyond 2100 S. Sharma et al. 10.1038/s41612-025-01126-5
- Seasonal and regional changes in terrestrial carbon uptake under an overshoot scenario W. Cheng et al. 10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.106997
- Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations J. Schwinger et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022
- Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target J. Terhaar et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01537-9
- The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7 B. Sanderson et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024
- What goes in must come out: the oceanic outgassing of anthropogenic carbon D. Couespel & J. Tjiputra 10.1088/1748-9326/ad16e0
- Linking cumulative carbon emissions to observable climate impacts C. Nzotungicimpaye & H. Matthews 10.1088/2752-5295/ad3fda
- The Role of Remaining Carbon Budgets and Net-Zero CO2 Targets in Climate Mitigation Policy M. Dickau et al. 10.1007/s40641-022-00184-8
- Photosynthesis of widespread lichen species in pine forests of Central Siberia D. Polosukhina et al. 10.31857/S002411482305008X
- Accelerating the Renewable Energy Revolution to Get Back to the Holocene B. Abbott et al. 10.1029/2023EF003639
- The policy and ecology of forest-based climate mitigation: challenges, needs, and opportunities C. Giebink et al. 10.1007/s11104-022-05315-6
- The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints B. Sanderson et al. 10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
- Exploration of a novel geoengineering solution: lighting up tropical forests at night X. Gao et al. 10.5194/esd-13-219-2022
36 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Change in negative emission burden between an overshoot versus peak-shaved stratospheric aerosol injection pathway S. Baur et al. 10.5194/esd-16-667-2025
- Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433
- The impacts of modelling prescribed vs. dynamic land cover in a high-CO2 future scenario – greening of the Arctic and Amazonian dieback S. Kou-Giesbrecht et al. 10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024
- Understanding land-based carbon dioxide removal in the context of the Rio Conventions K. Dooley et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.08.009
- Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations N. Vakilifard et al. 10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022
- Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2 emissions V. Chimuka et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023
- Optimal design of a sector-coupled renewable methanol production amid political goals and expected conflicts: Costs vs. land use T. Svitnič et al. 10.1016/j.spc.2023.12.003
- Much of zero emissions commitment occurs before reaching net zero emissions C. Koven et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acab1a
- Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios P. Pfleiderer et al. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad1c45
- Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1480208
- Physical inconsistencies in the representation of the ocean heat-carbon nexus in simple climate models R. Séférian et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01464-x
- Tipping point in North American Arctic-Boreal carbon sink persists in new generation Earth system models despite reduced uncertainty R. Braghiere et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acb226
- Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot G. Munday et al. 10.1038/s41558-025-02327-9
- Projected Changes in SWA over the Main BRI Regions for Net-Zero and Net-Negative Future J. He et al. 10.34133/ehs.0145
- Earth system responses to carbon dioxide removal as exemplified by ocean alkalinity enhancement: tradeoffs and lags A. Jeltsch-Thömmes et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4401
- Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges K. Dooley et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-53466-0
- Interplay between climate and carbon cycle feedbacks could substantially enhance future warming C. Kaufhold et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adb6be
- Compensatory Effects Between CO2, Nitrogen Deposition, and Nitrogen Fertilization in Terrestrial Biosphere Models Without Nitrogen Compromise Projections of the Future Terrestrial Carbon Sink S. Kou‐Giesbrecht & V. Arora 10.1029/2022GL102618
- A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs) M. Meinshausen et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024
- AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization Y. Silvy et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024
- Tracer-based Rapid Anthropogenic Carbon Estimation (TRACE) B. Carter et al. 10.5194/essd-17-3073-2025
- Warmer ecosystems save their breath A. Johnston 10.1038/s41558-025-02382-2
- Evidence and attribution of the enhanced land carbon sink S. Ruehr et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00456-3
- Hysteresis area at the canopy level during and after a drought event in the Central Amazon B. Gimenez et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110052
- The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization S. Palazzo Corner et al. 10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744
- Investigating carbon and nitrogen conservation in reported CMIP6 Earth system model data G. Tang et al. 10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025
- Continued permafrost ecosystem carbon loss under net-zero and negative emissions S. Park et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adn8819
- Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society T. Stocker et al. 10.1007/s10712-024-09844-w
- Long‐Term Slowdown of Ocean Carbon Uptake by Alkalinity Dynamics M. Chikamoto et al. 10.1029/2022GL101954
- Substantial shift in phase and amplitude of Indian rainfall beyond 2100 S. Sharma et al. 10.1038/s41612-025-01126-5
- Seasonal and regional changes in terrestrial carbon uptake under an overshoot scenario W. Cheng et al. 10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.106997
- Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations J. Schwinger et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022
- Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target J. Terhaar et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01537-9
- The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7 B. Sanderson et al. 10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024
- What goes in must come out: the oceanic outgassing of anthropogenic carbon D. Couespel & J. Tjiputra 10.1088/1748-9326/ad16e0
- Linking cumulative carbon emissions to observable climate impacts C. Nzotungicimpaye & H. Matthews 10.1088/2752-5295/ad3fda
6 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The Role of Remaining Carbon Budgets and Net-Zero CO2 Targets in Climate Mitigation Policy M. Dickau et al. 10.1007/s40641-022-00184-8
- Photosynthesis of widespread lichen species in pine forests of Central Siberia D. Polosukhina et al. 10.31857/S002411482305008X
- Accelerating the Renewable Energy Revolution to Get Back to the Holocene B. Abbott et al. 10.1029/2023EF003639
- The policy and ecology of forest-based climate mitigation: challenges, needs, and opportunities C. Giebink et al. 10.1007/s11104-022-05315-6
- The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints B. Sanderson et al. 10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
- Exploration of a novel geoengineering solution: lighting up tropical forests at night X. Gao et al. 10.5194/esd-13-219-2022
Latest update: 29 Jul 2025
Short summary
We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300 using six models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.
We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint