Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
16 May 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 16 May 2022
| 16 May 2022
Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
Vivek K. Arora
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and
Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia,
Canada
Patricia Cadule
IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Universiteì, Paris, France
Rosie A. Fisher
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
Évolution & Diversité Biologique, University of Toulouse
Paul Sabatier III, Toulouse, France
Chris D. Jones
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
David M. Lawrence
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Jared Lewis
Climate and Energy College, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
Climate Resource, Victoria, Australia
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, Austria
Keith Lindsay
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Sabine Mathesius
Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British
Columbia, Canada
now at: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Malte Meinshausen
Climate and Energy College, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
Climate Resource, Victoria, Australia
Michael Mills
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Zebedee Nicholls
Climate and Energy College, School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
Climate Resource, Victoria, Australia
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, Austria
Benjamin M. Sanderson
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
Roland Séférian
CNRM (Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS),
Toulouse, France
Neil C. Swart
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and
Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia,
Canada
William R. Wieder
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado,
Boulder, Colorado, USA
Kirsten Zickfeld
Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British
Columbia, Canada
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Latest update: 16 Jul 2025
Short summary
We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300 using six models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.
We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of...
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