Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 703–709, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 703–709, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022
Research article
05 Apr 2022
Research article | 05 Apr 2022

CO2 surface variability: from the stratosphere or not?

Michael J. Prather

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Cited articles

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Dlugokencky, E. J., Mund, J. W., Crotwell, A. M., Crotwell, M. J., and Thoning, K. W.: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dry Air Mole Fractions from the NOAA GML Carbon Cycle Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network, 1968–2020, Version: 2021-07-30, NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory Data Repository [data set], https://doi.org/10.15138/wkgj-f215, 2021b. 
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Short summary
Atmospheric CO2 fluctuations point to changes in fossil fuel emissions plus natural and perturbed variations in the natural carbon cycle. One unstudied source of variability is the stratosphere, where the influx of aged CO2-depleted air can cause surface fluctuations. Using modeling and, separately, scaling the observed N2O variability, I find that stratosphere-driven surface variability in CO2 is not a significant uncertainty (at most 10 % of the observed interannual variability).
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