Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Apr 2022
Research article |
| 05 Apr 2022
CO2 surface variability: from the stratosphere or not?
Earth System Science Department, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA 92617, USA
Related authors
Michael J. Prather, Lucien Froidevaux, and Nathaniel J. Livesey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 843–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-843-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-843-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
From satellite data for nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone and temperature, we calculate the monthly loss of N2O and find it is increasing faster than expected, resulting in a shorter lifetime, which reduces the impact of anthropogenic emissions. We identify the cause as enhanced vertical lofting of high-N2O air into the tropical middle stratosphere, where it is destroyed photochemically. Because global warming is due in part to N2O, this finding presents a new negative climate-chemistry feedback.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 99–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have prepared a unique and unusual result from the recent ATom aircraft mission: a measurement-based derivation of the production and loss rates of ozone and methane over the ocean basins. These are the key products of chemistry models used in assessments but have thus far lacked observational metrics. It also shows the scales of variability of atmospheric chemical rates and provides a major challenge to the atmospheric models.
Daniel J. Ruiz and Michael J. Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2079–2093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The stratosphere is an important source of tropospheric ozone, which affects climate, chemistry, and air quality, but is extremely difficult to quantify given the large production and loss terms in the troposphere. Here, we use other gases that are well observed and quantified as a reference to test our simulations of ozone transport in the atmosphere. This allows us to better constrain the stratospheric source of ozone and also offers guidance to improve future simulations of ozone transport.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13729–13746, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission built a climatology of the chemical composition of tropospheric air parcels throughout the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The level of detail allows us to reconstruct the photochemical budgets of O3 and CH4 over these vast, remote regions. We find that most of the chemical heterogeneity is captured at the resolution used in current global chemistry models and that the majority of reactivity occurs in the
hottest20 % of parcels.
Qi Tang, Michael J. Prather, Juno Hsu, Daniel J. Ruiz, Philip J. Cameron-Smith, Shaocheng Xie, and Jean-Christophe Golaz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1219–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1219-2021, 2021
Samuel R. Hall, Kirk Ullmann, Michael J. Prather, Clare M. Flynn, Lee T. Murray, Arlene M. Fiore, Gustavo Correa, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jonathan Guth, Béatrice Josse, Johannes Flemming, Vincent Huijnen, N. Luke Abraham, and Alex T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16809–16828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Photolysis (J rates) initiates and drives atmospheric chemistry, and Js are perturbed by factors of 2 by clouds. The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) Mission provides the first comprehensive observations on how clouds perturb Js through the remote Pacific and Atlantic basins. We compare these cloud-perturbation J statistics with those from nine global chemistry models. While basic patterns agree, there is a large spread across models, and all lack some basic features of the observations.
Sarah A. Strode, Junhua Liu, Leslie Lait, Róisín Commane, Bruce Daube, Steven Wofsy, Austin Conaty, Paul Newman, and Michael Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10955–10971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10955-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The GEOS-5 atmospheric model provided forecasts for the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom). GEOS-5 shows skill in simulating the carbon monoxide (CO) measured in ATom-1. African fires contribute to high CO over the tropical Atlantic, but non-fire sources are the main contributors elsewhere. ATom aims to provide a chemical climatology, so we consider whether ATom-1 occurred during a typical summer month. Satellite observations suggest ATom-1 occurred in a clean but not exceptional month.
Michael J. Prather, Clare M. Flynn, Xin Zhu, Stephen D. Steenrod, Sarah A. Strode, Arlene M. Fiore, Gustavo Correa, Lee T. Murray, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2653–2668, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A new protocol for merging in situ atmospheric chemistry measurements with 3-D models is developed. This technique can identify the most reactive air parcels in terms of tropospheric production/loss of O3 & CH4. This approach highlights differences in 6 global chemistry models even with composition specified. Thus in situ measurements from, e.g., NASA's ATom mission can be used to develop a chemical climatology of, not only the key species, but also the rates of key reactions in each air parcel.
Ruth M. Doherty, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, David A. Plummer, Michael J. Prather, Oliver Wild, Meiyun Lin, Drew T. Shindell, and Ian A. Mackenzie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14219–14237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how climate change impacts global air pollution transport. To study transport changes, we use a carbon monoxide (CO) tracer species emitted from global sources. We find robust and consistent changes in CO-tracer distributions in climate change simulations performed by four chemistry–climate models in different seasons. We highlight the importance of the co-location of emission source regions and controlling transport processes in determining future pollution transport.
Michael J. Prather, Xin Zhu, Clare M. Flynn, Sarah A. Strode, Jose M. Rodriguez, Stephen D. Steenrod, Junhua Liu, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Larry W. Horowitz, Jingqiu Mao, Lee T. Murray, Drew T. Shindell, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9081–9102, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9081-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9081-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach for comparing atmospheric chemistry models with measurements based on what these models are used to do, i.e., calculate changes in ozone and methane, prime greenhouse gases. This method anticipates a new type of measurements from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission. In comparing the mixture of species within air parcels, we focus on those responsible for key chemical changes and weight these parcels by their chemical reactivity.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann, David J. Beerling, Junji Cao, Shaun Marcott, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Michael J. Prather, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeremy Shakun, Pete Smith, Andrew Lacis, Gary Russell, and Reto Ruedy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global temperature now exceeds +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920, similar to warmth of the Eemian period. Keeping warming less than 1.5 °C or CO2 below 350 ppm now requires extraction of CO2 from the air. If rapid phaseout of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most extraction can be via improved agricultural and forestry practices. In contrast, continued high emissions places a burden on young people of massive technological CO2 extraction with large risks, high costs and uncertain feasibility.
Juno Hsu, Michael J. Prather, Philip Cameron-Smith, Alex Veidenbaum, and Alex Nicolau
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2525–2545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2525-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Solar-J is a high-fidelity solar radiative transfer Fortran 90 code. It has been developed for consistently calculating both the photolysis rates of important chemical species and the heating rates of the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. Its spectral range spans from 177 nm to 12 microns. It can be easily dropped in as a module in global climate–chemistry models.
Gunnar Myhre, Wenche Aas, Ribu Cherian, William Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Piers Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Zbigniew Klimont, Marianne T. Lund, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Dirk Olivié, Michael Prather, Johannes Quaas, Bjørn H. Samset, Jordan L. Schnell, Michael Schulz, Drew Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Svetlana Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The global mean radiative forcing is more strongly positive than reported in IPCC AR5.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Bojan Sič, Laaziz El Amraoui, Andrea Piacentini, Virginie Marécal, Emanuele Emili, Daniel Cariolle, Michael Prather, and Jean-Luc Attié
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5535–5554, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5535-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5535-2016, 2016
J. L. Schnell, M. J. Prather, B. Josse, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, P. Cameron-Smith, D. Bergmann, G. Zeng, D. A. Plummer, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, D. T. Shindell, G. Faluvegi, and S. A. Strode
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10581–10596, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We test global chemistry--climate models in their ability to simulate present-day surface ozone. Models are tested against observed hourly ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1°x1° grid cells. Using novel metrics, we find most models match the shape but not the amplitude of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles and match the pattern but not the magnitude of summer ozone enhancement. Most also match the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes
M. J. Prather
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2587–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2587-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2587-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for modeling photolysis rates (J values) in atmospheres with fractional cloud cover has been developed and is implemented as Cloud-J – a multi-scattering eight-stream radiative transfer model for solar radiation based on Fast-J. Using observations of the vertical correlation of cloud layers, Cloud-J provides a practical and accurate method for modeling atmospheric chemistry, which can be extended to solar heating rates.
J. L. Schnell, C. D. Holmes, A. Jangam, and M. J. Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7721–7739, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7721-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7721-2014, 2014
C. D. Holmes, M. J. Prather, and G. C. M. Vinken
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6801–6812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6801-2014, 2014
P. H. Lauritzen, P. A. Ullrich, C. Jablonowski, P. A. Bosler, D. Calhoun, A. J. Conley, T. Enomoto, L. Dong, S. Dubey, O. Guba, A. B. Hansen, E. Kaas, J. Kent, J.-F. Lamarque, M. J. Prather, D. Reinert, V. V. Shashkin, W. C. Skamarock, B. Sørensen, M. A. Taylor, and M. A. Tolstykh
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 105–145, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-105-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-105-2014, 2014
V. Naik, A. Voulgarakis, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Lin, M. J. Prather, P. J. Young, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, T. P. C. van Noije, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5277–5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
C. D. Holmes, M. J. Prather, O. A. Søvde, and G. Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 285–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-285-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-285-2013, 2013
Ø. Hodnebrog, T. K. Berntsen, O. Dessens, M. Gauss, V. Grewe, I. S. A. Isaksen, B. Koffi, G. Myhre, D. Olivié, M. J. Prather, F. Stordal, S. Szopa, Q. Tang, P. van Velthoven, and J. E. Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12211–12225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012, 2012
Michael J. Prather, Lucien Froidevaux, and Nathaniel J. Livesey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 843–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-843-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-843-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
From satellite data for nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone and temperature, we calculate the monthly loss of N2O and find it is increasing faster than expected, resulting in a shorter lifetime, which reduces the impact of anthropogenic emissions. We identify the cause as enhanced vertical lofting of high-N2O air into the tropical middle stratosphere, where it is destroyed photochemically. Because global warming is due in part to N2O, this finding presents a new negative climate-chemistry feedback.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 99–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have prepared a unique and unusual result from the recent ATom aircraft mission: a measurement-based derivation of the production and loss rates of ozone and methane over the ocean basins. These are the key products of chemistry models used in assessments but have thus far lacked observational metrics. It also shows the scales of variability of atmospheric chemical rates and provides a major challenge to the atmospheric models.
Daniel J. Ruiz and Michael J. Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2079–2093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The stratosphere is an important source of tropospheric ozone, which affects climate, chemistry, and air quality, but is extremely difficult to quantify given the large production and loss terms in the troposphere. Here, we use other gases that are well observed and quantified as a reference to test our simulations of ozone transport in the atmosphere. This allows us to better constrain the stratospheric source of ozone and also offers guidance to improve future simulations of ozone transport.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13729–13746, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission built a climatology of the chemical composition of tropospheric air parcels throughout the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The level of detail allows us to reconstruct the photochemical budgets of O3 and CH4 over these vast, remote regions. We find that most of the chemical heterogeneity is captured at the resolution used in current global chemistry models and that the majority of reactivity occurs in the
hottest20 % of parcels.
Qi Tang, Michael J. Prather, Juno Hsu, Daniel J. Ruiz, Philip J. Cameron-Smith, Shaocheng Xie, and Jean-Christophe Golaz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1219–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1219-2021, 2021
Samuel R. Hall, Kirk Ullmann, Michael J. Prather, Clare M. Flynn, Lee T. Murray, Arlene M. Fiore, Gustavo Correa, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jonathan Guth, Béatrice Josse, Johannes Flemming, Vincent Huijnen, N. Luke Abraham, and Alex T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16809–16828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Photolysis (J rates) initiates and drives atmospheric chemistry, and Js are perturbed by factors of 2 by clouds. The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) Mission provides the first comprehensive observations on how clouds perturb Js through the remote Pacific and Atlantic basins. We compare these cloud-perturbation J statistics with those from nine global chemistry models. While basic patterns agree, there is a large spread across models, and all lack some basic features of the observations.
Sarah A. Strode, Junhua Liu, Leslie Lait, Róisín Commane, Bruce Daube, Steven Wofsy, Austin Conaty, Paul Newman, and Michael Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10955–10971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10955-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The GEOS-5 atmospheric model provided forecasts for the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom). GEOS-5 shows skill in simulating the carbon monoxide (CO) measured in ATom-1. African fires contribute to high CO over the tropical Atlantic, but non-fire sources are the main contributors elsewhere. ATom aims to provide a chemical climatology, so we consider whether ATom-1 occurred during a typical summer month. Satellite observations suggest ATom-1 occurred in a clean but not exceptional month.
Michael J. Prather, Clare M. Flynn, Xin Zhu, Stephen D. Steenrod, Sarah A. Strode, Arlene M. Fiore, Gustavo Correa, Lee T. Murray, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2653–2668, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A new protocol for merging in situ atmospheric chemistry measurements with 3-D models is developed. This technique can identify the most reactive air parcels in terms of tropospheric production/loss of O3 & CH4. This approach highlights differences in 6 global chemistry models even with composition specified. Thus in situ measurements from, e.g., NASA's ATom mission can be used to develop a chemical climatology of, not only the key species, but also the rates of key reactions in each air parcel.
Ruth M. Doherty, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, David A. Plummer, Michael J. Prather, Oliver Wild, Meiyun Lin, Drew T. Shindell, and Ian A. Mackenzie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14219–14237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how climate change impacts global air pollution transport. To study transport changes, we use a carbon monoxide (CO) tracer species emitted from global sources. We find robust and consistent changes in CO-tracer distributions in climate change simulations performed by four chemistry–climate models in different seasons. We highlight the importance of the co-location of emission source regions and controlling transport processes in determining future pollution transport.
Michael J. Prather, Xin Zhu, Clare M. Flynn, Sarah A. Strode, Jose M. Rodriguez, Stephen D. Steenrod, Junhua Liu, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Larry W. Horowitz, Jingqiu Mao, Lee T. Murray, Drew T. Shindell, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9081–9102, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9081-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9081-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new approach for comparing atmospheric chemistry models with measurements based on what these models are used to do, i.e., calculate changes in ozone and methane, prime greenhouse gases. This method anticipates a new type of measurements from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission. In comparing the mixture of species within air parcels, we focus on those responsible for key chemical changes and weight these parcels by their chemical reactivity.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Karina von Schuckmann, David J. Beerling, Junji Cao, Shaun Marcott, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Michael J. Prather, Eelco J. Rohling, Jeremy Shakun, Pete Smith, Andrew Lacis, Gary Russell, and Reto Ruedy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global temperature now exceeds +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920, similar to warmth of the Eemian period. Keeping warming less than 1.5 °C or CO2 below 350 ppm now requires extraction of CO2 from the air. If rapid phaseout of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most extraction can be via improved agricultural and forestry practices. In contrast, continued high emissions places a burden on young people of massive technological CO2 extraction with large risks, high costs and uncertain feasibility.
Juno Hsu, Michael J. Prather, Philip Cameron-Smith, Alex Veidenbaum, and Alex Nicolau
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2525–2545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2525-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Solar-J is a high-fidelity solar radiative transfer Fortran 90 code. It has been developed for consistently calculating both the photolysis rates of important chemical species and the heating rates of the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. Its spectral range spans from 177 nm to 12 microns. It can be easily dropped in as a module in global climate–chemistry models.
Gunnar Myhre, Wenche Aas, Ribu Cherian, William Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Piers Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Zbigniew Klimont, Marianne T. Lund, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Dirk Olivié, Michael Prather, Johannes Quaas, Bjørn H. Samset, Jordan L. Schnell, Michael Schulz, Drew Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Svetlana Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The global mean radiative forcing is more strongly positive than reported in IPCC AR5.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Bojan Sič, Laaziz El Amraoui, Andrea Piacentini, Virginie Marécal, Emanuele Emili, Daniel Cariolle, Michael Prather, and Jean-Luc Attié
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5535–5554, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5535-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5535-2016, 2016
J. L. Schnell, M. J. Prather, B. Josse, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, P. Cameron-Smith, D. Bergmann, G. Zeng, D. A. Plummer, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, D. T. Shindell, G. Faluvegi, and S. A. Strode
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10581–10596, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We test global chemistry--climate models in their ability to simulate present-day surface ozone. Models are tested against observed hourly ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1°x1° grid cells. Using novel metrics, we find most models match the shape but not the amplitude of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles and match the pattern but not the magnitude of summer ozone enhancement. Most also match the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes
M. J. Prather
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2587–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2587-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2587-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for modeling photolysis rates (J values) in atmospheres with fractional cloud cover has been developed and is implemented as Cloud-J – a multi-scattering eight-stream radiative transfer model for solar radiation based on Fast-J. Using observations of the vertical correlation of cloud layers, Cloud-J provides a practical and accurate method for modeling atmospheric chemistry, which can be extended to solar heating rates.
J. L. Schnell, C. D. Holmes, A. Jangam, and M. J. Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7721–7739, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7721-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7721-2014, 2014
C. D. Holmes, M. J. Prather, and G. C. M. Vinken
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6801–6812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6801-2014, 2014
P. H. Lauritzen, P. A. Ullrich, C. Jablonowski, P. A. Bosler, D. Calhoun, A. J. Conley, T. Enomoto, L. Dong, S. Dubey, O. Guba, A. B. Hansen, E. Kaas, J. Kent, J.-F. Lamarque, M. J. Prather, D. Reinert, V. V. Shashkin, W. C. Skamarock, B. Sørensen, M. A. Taylor, and M. A. Tolstykh
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 105–145, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-105-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-105-2014, 2014
V. Naik, A. Voulgarakis, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Lin, M. J. Prather, P. J. Young, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, T. P. C. van Noije, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5277–5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
C. D. Holmes, M. J. Prather, O. A. Søvde, and G. Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 285–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-285-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-285-2013, 2013
Ø. Hodnebrog, T. K. Berntsen, O. Dessens, M. Gauss, V. Grewe, I. S. A. Isaksen, B. Koffi, G. Myhre, D. Olivié, M. J. Prather, F. Stordal, S. Szopa, Q. Tang, P. van Velthoven, and J. E. Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12211–12225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Dynamics of the Earth system: interactions
Evaluation of global teleconnections in CMIP6 climate projections using complex networks
On the additivity of climate responses to the volcanic and solar forcing in the early 19th century
Exploring the relationship between temperature forecast errors and Earth system variables
Trends and uncertainties of mass-driven sea-level change in the satellite altimetry era
The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models
Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks
Complex network analysis of fine particulate matter (PM2.5): transport and clustering
Quantifying memory and persistence in the atmosphere–land and ocean carbon system
Salinity dynamics of the Baltic Sea
Impact of urbanization on the thermal environment of the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration under complex terrain
Sensitivity of land–atmosphere coupling strength to changing atmospheric temperature and moisture over Europe
Human impacts and their interactions in the Baltic Sea region
Exploring the coupled ocean and atmosphere system with a data science approach applied to observations from the Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition
Accounting for surface waves improves gas flux estimation at high wind speed in a large lake
Multiscale fractal dimension analysis of a reduced order model of coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics
Modelling sea-level fingerprints of glaciated regions with low mantle viscosity
Jarzynski equality and Crooks relation for local models of air–sea interaction
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming
A climate network perspective on the intertropical convergence zone
Spatiotemporal patterns of synchronous heavy rainfall events in East Asia during the Baiu season
Rankings of extreme and widespread dry and wet events in the Iberian Peninsula between 1901 and 2016
Stratospheric ozone and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) interaction with the tropical troposphere on intraseasonal and interannual timescales: a normal-mode perspective
Daytime low-level clouds in West Africa – occurrence, associated drivers, and shortwave radiation attenuation
Water transport among the world ocean basins within the water cycle
Economic impacts of a glacial period: a thought experiment to assess the disconnect between econometrics and climate sciences
Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years
The synergistic impact of ENSO and IOD on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in observations and climate simulations – an information theory perspective
Climate change as an incentive for future human migration
Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean
Climate–groundwater dynamics inferred from GRACE and the role of hydraulic memory
Mesoscale atmospheric circulation controls of local meteorological elevation gradients on Kersten Glacier near Kilimanjaro summit
On the interconnections among major climate modes and their common driving factors
Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods
Back to the future II: tidal evolution of four supercontinent scenarios
Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale
Synthesis and evaluation of historical meridional heat transport from midlatitudes towards the Arctic
Amplified warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to the mean in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics
Tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approach
Analysis of the position and strength of westerlies and trades with implications for Agulhas leakage and South Benguela upwelling
Organization of dust storms and synoptic-scale transport of dust by Kelvin waves
ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation
North Pacific subtropical sea surface temperature frontogenesis and its connection with the atmosphere above
The multi-scale structure of atmospheric energetic constraints on globally averaged precipitation
Potential of global land water recycling to mitigate local temperature extremes
Pipes to Earth's subsurface: the role of atmospheric conditions in controlling air transport through boreholes and shafts
Causal dependences between the coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics over the tropical Pacific, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic
Moisture transport and Antarctic sea ice: austral spring 2016 event
Recent changes of relative humidity: regional connections with land and ocean processes
Assessments of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover response to 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming
On the social dynamics of moisture recycling
Clementine Dalelane, Kristina Winderlich, and Andreas Walter
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 17–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-17-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-17-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The realistic representation of global teleconnections is an indispensable requirement for the reliable simulation of low-frequency climate variability and climate change. We present an application of the complex network framework to quantify and evaluate large-scale interactions within and between ocean and atmosphere in 22 historical CMIP6 climate projections with respect to two century-long reanalyses.
Shih-Wei Fang, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, Kirstin Krüger, and Hauke Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1535–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. This study quantifies potential surface cooling from the solar and volcanic forcing in the early 19th century with large ensemble simulations, and identifies the regions that their impacts cannot be simply additive. The cooling perspective of Arctic amplification exists in both solar and post-volcano period with the albedo feedback as the main contribution.
Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Sungmin O, Alexander Brenning, Randal D. Koster, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Ulrich Weber, Gabriele Arduini, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Subseasonal forecasts facilitate early warning of extreme events; however their predictability sources are not fully explored. We find that global temperature forecast errors in many regions are related to climate variables such as solar radiation and precipitation, as well as land surface variables such as soil moisture and evaporative fraction. A better representation of these variables in the forecasting and data assimilation systems can support the accuracy of temperature forecasts.
Carolina M. L. Camargo, Riccardo E. M. Riva, Tim H. J. Hermans, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1351–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1351-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1351-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The mass loss from Antarctica, Greenland and glaciers and variations in land water storage cause sea-level changes. Here, we characterize the regional trends within these sea-level contributions, taking into account mass variations since 1993. We take a comprehensive approach to determining the uncertainties of these sea-level changes, considering different types of errors. Our study reveals the importance of clearly quantifying the uncertainties of sea-level change trends.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Maria Zeitz, Jan M. Haacker, Jonathan F. Donges, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is crucial. Here, using PISM, we study how the interplay of feedbacks between the ice sheet, the atmosphere and solid Earth affects the long-term response of the Greenland Ice Sheet under constant warming. Our findings suggest four distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the route to destabilization under global warming – from recovery via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice sheet collapse.
Na Ying, Wansuo Duan, Zhidan Zhao, and Jingfang Fan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1029–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1029-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1029-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A complex PM2.5 measurement network has been built to investigate transport patterns and cooperative regions in China. Network-based degree measurements are used to reveal the spatial transport pattern of PM2.5. The study also attempts to investigate the seasonal transport path of PM2.5. In addition, the cooperation regions of PM2.5 are quantified according to their synchronicity characteristics. The proposed study can be applied to other air pollutant data, such as ozone and NOx.
Matthias Jonas, Rostyslav Bun, Iryna Ryzha, and Piotr Żebrowski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 439–455, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-439-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We interpret carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning and land use as a global stress–strain experiment to reflect the overall behavior of the atmosphere–land and ocean system in response to increasing CO2 emissions since 1850. The system has been trapped progressively in terms of persistence, while its ability to build up memory has been reduced. We expect system failures globally well before 2050 if the current trend in emissions is not reversed immediately and sustainably.
Andreas Lehmann, Kai Myrberg, Piia Post, Irina Chubarenko, Inga Dailidiene, Hans-Harald Hinrichsen, Karin Hüssy, Taavi Liblik, H. E. Markus Meier, Urmas Lips, and Tatiana Bukanova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 373–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-373-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The salinity in the Baltic Sea is not only an important topic for physical oceanography as such, but it also integrates the complete water and energy cycle. It is a primary external driver controlling ecosystem dynamics of the Baltic Sea. The long-term dynamics are controlled by river runoff, net precipitation, and the water mass exchange between the North Sea and Baltic Sea. On shorter timescales, the ephemeral atmospheric conditions drive a very complex and highly variable salinity regime.
Si Chen, Zhenghui Xie, Jinbo Xie, Bin Liu, Binghao Jia, Peihua Qin, Longhuan Wang, Yan Wang, and Ruichao Li
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 341–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-341-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study discusses the changes in the summer thermal environment in the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration due to urban expansion in complex terrain conditions in the recent 40 years, using high-resolution simulations with the WRF model. We quantify the influence of a single urban expansion factor and a single complex terrain factor on the urban thermal environment. Under the joint influence of complex terrain and urban expansion, the heat island effect caused by urbanization was enhanced.
Lisa Jach, Thomas Schwitalla, Oliver Branch, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 109–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-109-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The land surface can influence the occurrence of local rainfall through different feedback mechanisms. In Europe, this happens most frequently in summer. Here, we examine how differences in atmospheric temperature and moisture change where and how often the land surface can influence rainfall. The results show that the differences barely move the region of strong surface influence over Scandinavia and eastern Europe, but they can change the frequency of coupling events.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Sebastian Landwehr, Michele Volpi, F. Alexander Haumann, Charlotte M. Robinson, Iris Thurnherr, Valerio Ferracci, Andrea Baccarini, Jenny Thomas, Irina Gorodetskaya, Christian Tatzelt, Silvia Henning, Rob L. Modini, Heather J. Forrer, Yajuan Lin, Nicolas Cassar, Rafel Simó, Christel Hassler, Alireza Moallemi, Sarah E. Fawcett, Neil Harris, Ruth Airs, Marzieh H. Derkani, Alberto Alberello, Alessandro Toffoli, Gang Chen, Pablo Rodríguez-Ros, Marina Zamanillo, Pau Cortés-Greus, Lei Xue, Conor G. Bolas, Katherine C. Leonard, Fernando Perez-Cruz, David Walton, and Julia Schmale
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1295–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1295-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition surveyed a large number of variables describing the dynamic state of ocean and atmosphere, freshwater cycle, atmospheric chemistry, ocean biogeochemistry, and microbiology in the Southern Ocean. To reduce the dimensionality of the dataset, we apply a sparse principal component analysis and identify temporal patterns from diurnal to seasonal cycles, as well as geographical gradients and
hotspotsof interaction. Code and data are open access.
Pascal Perolo, Bieito Fernández Castro, Nicolas Escoffier, Thibault Lambert, Damien Bouffard, and Marie-Elodie Perga
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1169–1189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wind blowing over the ocean creates waves that, by increasing the level of turbulence, promote gas exchange at the air–water interface. In this study, for the first time, we measured enhanced gas exchanges by wind-induced waves at the surface of a large lake. We adapted an ocean-based model to account for the effect of surface waves on gas exchange in lakes. We finally show that intense wind events with surface waves contribute disproportionately to the annual CO2 gas flux in a large lake.
Tommaso Alberti, Reik V. Donner, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 837–855, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-837-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-837-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a novel approach to diagnose the strength of the ocean–atmosphere coupling by using both a reduced order model and reanalysis data. Our findings suggest the ocean–atmosphere dynamics presents a rich variety of features, moving from a chaotic to a coherent coupled dynamics, mainly attributed to the atmosphere and only marginally to the ocean. Our observations suggest further investigations in characterizing the occurrence and spatial dependency of the ocean–atmosphere coupling.
Alan Bartholet, Glenn A. Milne, and Konstantin Latychev
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 783–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-783-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-783-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Improving the accuracy of regional sea-level projections is an important aim that will impact estimates of sea-level hazard around the globe. The computation of sea-level fingerprints is a key component of any such projection, and to date these computations have been based on the assumption that elastic deformation accurately describes the solid Earth response on century timescales. We show here that this assumption is inaccurate in some glaciated regions characterized by low mantle viscosity.
Achim Wirth and Florian Lemarié
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 689–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-689-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-689-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We show that modern concepts of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics can be applied to large-scale environmental fluid dynamics, where fluctuations are not thermal but come from turbulence. The work theorems developed by Jarzynski and Crooks are applied to air–sea interaction. Rather than looking at the average values of thermodynamic variables, their probability density functions are considered, which allows us to replace the inequalities of equilibrium statistical mechanics with equalities.
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the Earth system, climate tipping elements exist that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
Frederik Wolf, Aiko Voigt, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 353–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-353-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-353-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In our work, we employ complex networks to study the relation between the time mean position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability. We show that the information hidden in different spatial SST correlation patterns, which we access utilizing complex networks, is strongly correlated with the time mean position of the ITCZ. This research contributes to the ongoing discussion on drivers of the annual migration of the ITCZ.
Frederik Wolf, Ugur Ozturk, Kevin Cheung, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 295–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Motivated by a lacking onset prediction scheme, we examine the temporal evolution of synchronous heavy rainfall associated with the East Asian Monsoon System employing a network approach. We find, that the evolution of the Baiu front is associated with the formation of a spatially separated double band of synchronous rainfall. Furthermore, we identify the South Asian Anticyclone and the North Pacific Subtropical High as the main drivers, which have been assumed to be independent previously.
Margarida L. R. Liberato, Irene Montero, Célia Gouveia, Ana Russo, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 197–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extensive, long-standing dry and wet episodes are frequent climatic extreme events (EEs) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). A method for ranking regional extremes of persistent, widespread drought and wet events is presented, using different SPEI timescales. Results show that there is no region more prone to EE occurrences in the IP, the most extreme extensive agricultural droughts evolve into hydrological and more persistent extreme droughts, and widespread wet and dry EEs are anti-correlated.
Breno Raphaldini, André S. W. Teruya, Pedro Leite da Silva Dias, Lucas Massaroppe, and Daniel Yasumasa Takahashi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 83–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-83-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-83-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Several recent studies suggest a modulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The physics behind this interaction, however, remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the QBO–MJO interaction and the role of stratospheric ozone as a forcing mechanism. A normal-mode decomposition procedure combined with causality analysis reveals significant interactions between MJO-related modes and QBO-related modes.
Derrick K. Danso, Sandrine Anquetin, Arona Diedhiou, Kouakou Kouadio, and Arsène T. Kobea
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1133–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1133-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1133-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric and surface conditions that exist during the occurrence of daytime low-level clouds (LLCs) and their influence on solar radiation were investigated in West Africa. During the monsoon season, these LLCs are linked to high moisture flux driven by strong southwesterly winds from the Gulf of Guinea and significant background moisture levels. Their occurrence leads to a strong reduction in the incoming solar radiation and has large impacts on the surface energy budget.
David García-García, Isabel Vigo, and Mario Trottini
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1089–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1089-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1089-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The global water cycle involves water-mass transport on land, in the atmosphere, in the ocean, and among them. The GRACE mission has allowed for the quantification of water-mass variations. It was a revolution in the understanding of Earth dynamics. Here, we develop and apply a novel method, based on GRACE data and atmospheric models, that allows systematic estimation of water-mass exchange among ocean basins. This is valuable for understanding the role of the ocean within the water cycle.
Marie-Noëlle Woillez, Gaël Giraud, and Antoine Godin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1073–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1073-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1073-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To illustrate the fact that future economic damage from global warming is often highly underestimated, we applied two different statistically based damage functions available in the literature to a global cooling of 4 °C. We show that the gross domestic product (GDP) projections obtained are at odds with the state of the planet during an ice age. We conclude that such functions do not provide relevant information on potential damage from a large climate change, be it cooling or warming.
Jonas Van Breedam, Heiko Goelzer, and Philippe Huybrechts
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We made projections of global mean sea-level change during the next 10 000 years for a range in climate forcing scenarios ranging from a peak in carbon dioxide concentrations in the next decades to burning most of the available carbon reserves over the next 2 centuries. We find that global mean sea level will rise between 9 and 37 m, depending on the emission of greenhouse gases. In this study, we investigated the long-term consequence of climate change for sea-level rise.
Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Cristina Primo, Silje Sørland, and Bodo Ahrens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 903–923, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Information exchange (IE) from the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is investigated. Observational data show that IOD and ENSO synergistically exchange information on ISMR variability over central India. IE patterns observed in three global climate models (GCMs) differ from observations. Our study highlights new perspectives that IE metrics could bring to climate science.
Min Chen and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 875–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the implications of future motivation for humans to migrate by analyzing today’s relationships between climatic factors and population density, with all other factors held constant. Such analyses are unlikely to make accurate predictions but can still be useful for informing discussions about the broad range of incentives that might influence migration decisions. Areas with the highest projected population growth rates tend to be the areas most adversely affected by climate change.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we quantify Mediterranean compound temperature and precipitation dynamical extremes (CDEs) over the 1979–2018 period. The strength of the temperature–precipitation coupling during summer increased and is driven by surface warming. We also link the CDEs to compound hot–dry and cold–wet events during summer and winter respectively.
Simon Opie, Richard G. Taylor, Chris M. Brierley, Mohammad Shamsudduha, and Mark O. Cuthbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 775–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge of the relationship between climate and groundwater is limited and typically undermined by the scale, duration and accessibility of observations. Using monthly satellite measurements newly compiled over 14 years in the tropics and sub-tropics, we show that the imprint of precipitation history on groundwater, i.e. hydraulic memory, is longer in drylands than humid environments with important implications for the understanding and management of groundwater resources under climate change.
Thomas Mölg, Douglas R. Hardy, Emily Collier, Elena Kropač, Christina Schmid, Nicolas J. Cullen, Georg Kaser, Rainer Prinz, and Michael Winkler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 653–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-653-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-653-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The glaciers on Kilimanjaro summit are like sample spots of the climate in the tropical mid-troposphere. Measurements of air temperature, air humidity, and precipitation with automated weather stations show that the differences in these meteorological elements between two altitudes (~ 5600 and ~ 5900 m) vary significantly over the day and the seasons, in concert with airflow dynamics around the mountain. Knowledge of these variations will improve atmosphere and cryosphere models.
Xinnong Pan, Geli Wang, Peicai Yang, Jun Wang, and Anastasios A. Tsonis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 525–535, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-525-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-525-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The variations in oceanic and atmospheric modes play important roles in global and regional climate variability. The relationships between their variations and regional climate variability have been extensively examined, but the interconnections among these climate modes remain unclear. We show that the base periods and their harmonic oscillations that appear to be related to QBO, ENSO, and solar activities act as key connections among the climatic modes with synchronous behaviors.
Martin Wegmann, Marco Rohrer, María Santolaria-Otín, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 509–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting the climate of the upcoming season is of big societal benefit, but finding out which component of the climate system can act as a predictor is difficult. In this study, we focus on Eurasian snow cover as such a component and show that knowing the snow cover in November is very helpful in predicting the state of winter over Europe. However, this mechanism was questioned in the past. Using snow data that go back 150 years into the past, we are now very confident in this relationship.
Hannah S. Davies, J. A. Mattias Green, and Joao C. Duarte
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 291–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We have confirmed that there is a supertidal cycle associated with the supercontinent cycle. As continents drift due to plate tectonics, oceans also change size, controlling the strength of the tides and causing periods of supertides. In this work, we used a coupled tectonic–tidal model of Earth's future to test four different scenarios that undergo different styles of ocean closure and periods of supertides. This has implications for the Earth system and for other planets with liquid oceans.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We show that floods and droughts can co-occur in time across remote regions on the globe and introduce metrics that can help in quantifying concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes. We then link wet–dry extremes to major modes of climate variability (i.e. ENSO, PDO, and AMO) and provide their spatial patterns. Such concurrent extreme hydrological events may pose risks to regional hydropower production and agricultural yields.
Yang Liu, Jisk Attema, Ben Moat, and Wilco Hazeleger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 77–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-77-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-77-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Poleward meridional energy transport (MET) has significant impact on the climate in the Arctic. In this study, we quantify and intercompare MET at subpolar latitudes from six reanalysis data sets. The results indicate that the spatial distribution and temporal variations of MET differ substantially among the reanalysis data sets. Our study suggests that the MET estimated from reanalyses is useful for the evaluation of energy transports but should be used with great care.
Mia H. Gross, Markus G. Donat, Lisa V. Alexander, and Steven C. Sherwood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 97–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-97-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-97-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the amplified warming of cold extremes relative to average temperatures for both the recent past and future in the Northern Hemisphere and the possible physical processes that are driving this. We find that decreases in snow cover and
warmer-than-usual winds are driving the disproportionate rates of warming in cold extremes relative to average temperatures. These accelerated warming rates in cold extremes have implications for tourism, insect longevity and human health.
Giorgia Di Capua, Marlene Kretschmer, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 17–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Drivers from both the mid-latitudes and the tropical regions have been proposed to influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) subseasonal variability. To understand the relative importance of tropical and mid-latitude drivers, we apply recently developed causal discovery techniques to disentangle the causal relationships among these processes. Our results show that there is indeed a two-way interaction between the mid-latitude circulation and ISM rainfall over central India.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Kay-Christian Emeis, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 847–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our study reveals that the latitudinal position and intensity of Southern Hemisphere trades and westerlies are correlated. In the last decades the westerlies have shifted poleward and intensified. Furthermore, the latitudinal shifts and intensity of the trades and westerlies impact the sea surface temperatures around southern Africa and in the South Benguela upwelling region. The future development of wind stress depends on the strength of greenhouse gas forcing.
Ashok Kumar Pokharel and Michael L. Kaplan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 651–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-651-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-651-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study contributes to a better understanding of how large-scale dust transport can be organized from northwest Africa to the US, Amazon basin, and Europe and might be due in part to Kelvin waves. We also think there is still a need to study major historical dust events that occurred in this region to confirm that this location is suitable and responsible for the generation of the Kelvin waves and the transport of dust on a regular basis.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Leying Zhang, Haiming Xu, Jing Ma, Ning Shi, and Jiechun Deng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 261–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-261-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Net heat flux dominates the frontogenesis of the NPSTF from October to December, while oceanic meridional temperature advection contributes equally as much or even more net heat flux in January and February. The atmosphere is critical to frontogenesis through net heat flux and the Aleutian low, the latter of which benefits meridional temperature advection.
Miguel Nogueira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 219–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-219-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-219-2019, 2019
Mathias Hauser, Wim Thiery, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 157–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a method to keep the amount of water in the soil at the present-day level, using only local water sources in a global climate model. This leads to less drying over many land areas, but also decreases river runoff. We find that temperature extremes in the 21st century decrease substantially using our method. This provides a new perspective on how land water can influence regional climate and introduces land water management as potential tool for local mitigation of climate change.
Elad Levintal, Nadav G. Lensky, Amit Mushkin, and Noam Weisbrod
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1141-2018, 2018
Stéphane Vannitsem and Pierre Ekelmans
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1063–1083, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1063-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1063-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon is a slow dynamics present in the coupled ocean–atmosphere tropical Pacific system which has important teleconnections with the northern extratropics. These teleconnections are usually believed to be the source of an enhanced predictability in the northern extratropics at seasonal to decadal timescales. This question is challenged by investigating the causality between these regions using an advanced technique known as convergent cross mapping.
Monica Ionita, Patrick Scholz, Klaus Grosfeld, and Renate Treffeisen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 939–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-939-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-939-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In austral spring 2016 the Antarctic region experienced anomalous sea ice retreat in all sectors, with sea ice extent in October and November 2016 being the lowest in the Southern Hemisphere over the observational record (1979–present). The extreme sea ice retreat was accompanied by the wettest and warmest spring on record, over large areas covering the Indian ocean, the Ross Sea, and the Weddell Sea.
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Anita Drumond, Ahmed El Kenawy, Fernando Dominguez-Castro, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, and Marina Peña-Gallardo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 915–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-915-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-915-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed changes in surface relative humidity (RH) at the global scale from 1979 to 2014 and compared the variability and trends in RH with those in land evapotranspiration and ocean evaporation in moisture source areas across a range of selected regions worldwide. Our results stress that the different hypotheses that may explain the decrease in RH under a global warming scenario could act together to explain recent RH trends.
Aihui Wang, Lianlian Xu, and Xianghui Kong
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 865–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-865-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-865-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The snow cover fractions (SCFs) from the CESM 1.5°C and 2°C projects and CMIP5 are assessed. The spatiotemporal variations in the above products are grossly consistent with observations. The SFC change in RCP2.6 is comparable to that in 1.5°C, but lower than that in 2°C. The contribution of surface temperature change to SCF differs by season. The model physical parameterization plays a predominant role in snow simulations triggered by climate internal variability.
Patrick W. Keys and Lan Wang-Erlandsson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 829–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-829-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-829-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Moisture recycling is the atmospheric branch of the water cycle, including evaporation and precipitation. While the physical water cycle is well-understood, the social links among the recipients of precipitation back to the sources of evaporation are not. In this work, we develop a method to determine how these social connections unfold, using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, finding that there are distinct types of social connections with corresponding policy and management tools.
Cited articles
Baker, D. F., Law, R. M., Gurney, K. R., Rayner, P., Peylin, P., Denning, A. S., Bousquet, P., Bruhwiler, L., Chen, Y. H., Ciais, P., Fung, I. Y., Heimann, M., John, J., Maki, T., Maksyutov, S., Masarie, K., Prather, M., Pak, B., Taguchi, S., and Zhu, Z.: TransCom 3 inversion intercomparison: Impact of transport model errors on the interannual variability of regional CO2 fluxes, 1988–2003, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, Gb1002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gb002439, 2006.
Cunnold, D. M., Fraser, P. J., Weiss, R. F., Prinn, R. G., Simmonds, P. G., Miller, B. R., Alyea, F. N., and Crawford, A. J.: Global trends and annual releases of CCl3F and CCl2F2 estimated from ALE/GAGE and other measurements from July 1978 to June 1991, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.1029/93JD02715, 1994.
Deng, F., Jones, D. B. A., Walker, T. W., Keller, M., Bowman, K. W., Henze, D. K., Nassar, R., Kort, E. A., Wofsy, S. C., Walker, K. A., Bourassa, A. E., and Degenstein, D. A.: Sensitivity analysis of the potential impact of discrepancies in stratosphere–troposphere exchange on inferred sources and sinks of CO2, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11773–11788, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11773-2015, 2015.
Dlugokencky, E. J., Crotwell, A. M., Mund, J. W., Crotwell, M. J., and Thoning, K. W.: Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide Dry Air Mole Fractions from the NOAA GML Carbon Cycle Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network, 1997–2020, Version: 2021-07-30, NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory Data Repository [data set], https://doi.org/10.15138/53g1-x417, 2021a.
Dlugokencky, E. J., Mund, J. W., Crotwell, A. M., Crotwell, M. J., and Thoning, K. W.: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dry Air Mole Fractions from the NOAA GML Carbon Cycle Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network, 1968–2020, Version: 2021-07-30, NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory Data Repository [data set], https://doi.org/10.15138/wkgj-f215, 2021b.
Engelen, R. J., Denning, A. S., Gurney, K. R., Law, R. M., Denning, A. S., Rayner, P. J., Baker, D., Bousquet, P., Bruhwiler, L., Chen, Y. H., Ciais, P., Fan, S., Fung, I. Y., Gloor, M., Heimann, M., Higuchi, K., John, J., Maki, T., Maksyutov, S., Masarie, K., Peylin, P., Prather, M., Pak, B. C., Sarmiento, J., Taguchi, S., Takahashi, T., and Yuen, C. W.: On error estimation in atmospheric CO2 inversions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D14199, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jd007428, 2006.
Frankenberg, C., Kulawik, S. S., Wofsy, S. C., Chevallier, F., Daube, B., Kort, E. A., O'Dell, C., Olsen, E. T., and Osterman, G.: Using airborne HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) to evaluate model and remote sensing estimates of atmospheric carbon dioxide, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7867–7878, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7867-2016, 2016.
Gaubert, B., Stephens, B. B., Basu, S., Chevallier, F., Deng, F., Kort, E. A., Patra, P. K., Peters, W., Rödenbeck, C., Saeki, T., Schimel, D., Van der Laan-Luijkx, I., Wofsy, S., and Yin, Y.: Global atmospheric CO2 inverse models converging on neutral tropical land exchange, but disagreeing on fossil fuel and atmospheric growth rate, Biogeosciences, 16, 117–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-117-2019, 2019.
Graven, H. D., Keeling, R. F., Piper, S. C., Patra, P. K., Stephens, B. B., Wofsy, S. C., Welp, L. R., Sweeney, C., Tans, P. P., Kelley, J. J., Daube, B. C., Kort, E. A., Santoni, G. W., and Bent, J. D.: Enhanced Seasonal Exchange of CO2 by Northern Ecosystems Since 1960, Science, 341, 1085–1089, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1239207, 2013.
Gurney, K. R., Law, R. M., Denning, A. S., Rayner, P. J., Baker, D., Bousquet, P., Bruhwiler, L., Chen, Y. H., Ciais, P., Fan, S., Fung, I. Y., Gloor, M., Heimann, M., Higuchi, K., John, J., Maki, T., Maksyutov, S., Masarie, K., Peylin, P., Prather, M., Pak, B. C., Randerson, J., Sarmiento, J., Taguchi, S., Takahashi, T., and Yuen, C. W.: Towards robust regional estimates of CO2 sources and sinks using atmospheric transport models, Nature, 415, 626–630, https://doi.org/10.1038/415626a, 2002.
Hamilton, K. and Fan, S. M.: Effects of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation on long-lived greenhouse gases in the troposphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 105, 20581–20587, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000jd900331, 2000.
Keeling, R. F. and Graven, H. D.: Insights from Time Series of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Related Tracers, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 46, 85–110, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-125406, 2021.
Koren, G., Schneider, L., van der Velde, I. R., van Schaik, E., Gromov, S. S., Adnew, G. A., Martino, D. J. M., Hofmann, M. E. G., Liang, M. C., Mahata, S., Bergamaschi, P., van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., Krol, M. C., Rockmann, T., and Peters, W.: Global 3-D Simulations of the triple oxygen isotope signature delta O-17 in atmospheric CO2, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 8808–8836, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030387, 2019.
Laskar, A. H., Mahata, S., Bhattacharya, S. K., and Liang, M. C.: Triple oxygen and clumped isotope compositions of CO2 in the middle troposphere, Earth Space Sci., 6, 1205–1219, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000573, 2019.
Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R. M., Canadell, J. G., Sitch, S., Korsbakken, J. I., Peters, G. P., Manning, A. C., Boden, T. A., Tans, P. P., Houghton, R. A., Keeling, R. F., Alin, S., Andrews, O. D., Anthoni, P., Barbero, L., Bopp, L., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Ciais, P., Currie, K., Delire, C., Doney, S. C., Friedlingstein, P., Gkritzalis, T., Harris, I., Hauck, J., Haverd, V., Hoppema, M., Klein Goldewijk, K., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Körtzinger, A., Landschützer, P., Lefèvre, N., Lenton, A., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D., Melton, J. R., Metzl, N., Millero, F., Monteiro, P. M. S., Munro, D. R., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S., O'Brien, K., Olsen, A., Omar, A. M., Ono, T., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rödenbeck, C., Salisbury, J., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Skjelvan, I., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., van der Werf, G. R., Viovy, N., Walker, A. P., Wiltshire, A. J., and Zaehle, S.: Global Carbon Budget 2016, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016.
Liang, M. C., Mahata, S., Laskar, A. H., Thiemens, M. H., and Newman, S.: Oxygen isotope anomaly in tropospheric CO2 and implications for CO2 residence time in the atmosphere and gross primary productivity, Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 13180, https://doi.org/10.1038/S41598-017-12774-W, 2017.
McNorton, J. R., Bousserez, N., Agustí-Panareda, A., Balsamo, G., Choulga, M., Dawson, A., Engelen, R., Kipling, Z., and Lang, S.: Representing model uncertainty for global atmospheric CO2 flux inversions using ECMWF-IFS-46R1, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2297–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2297-2020, 2020.
Nakazawa, T.: Current understanding of the global cycling of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, P. Jpn. Acad. B-Phys., 96, 394–419, https://doi.org/10.2183/pjab.96.030, 2020.
Nassar, R., Jones, D. B. A., Kulawik, S. S., Worden, J. R., Bowman, K. W., Andres, R. J., Suntharalingam, P., Chen, J. M., Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M., Schuck, T. J., Conway, T. J., and Worthy, D. E.: Inverse modeling of CO2 sources and sinks using satellite observations of CO2 from TES and surface flask measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 6029–6047, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-6029-2011, 2011.
Nevison, C. D., Kinnison, D. E., and Weiss, R. F.: Stratospheric influences on the tropospheric seasonal cycles of nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L20103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl020398, 2004.
Nevison, C. D., Mahowald, N. M., Weiss, R. F., and Prinn, R. G.: Interannual and seasonal variability in atmospheric N2O, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 21, GB3017, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GB002755, 2007.
Nevison, C. D., Dlugokencky, E., Dutton, G., Elkins, J. W., Fraser, P., Hall, B., Krummel, P. B., Langenfelds, R. L., O'Doherty, S., Prinn, R. G., Steele, L. P., and Weiss, R. F.: Exploring causes of interannual variability in the seasonal cycles of tropospheric nitrous oxide, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 3713–3730, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-3713-2011, 2011.
Newman, P.: The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html, last access: 30 August 2021.
Pandey, S., Houweling, S., Krol, M., Aben, I., Chevallier, F., Dlugokencky, E. J., Gatti, L. V., Gloor, E., Miller, J. B., Detmers, R., Machida, T., and Röckmann, T.: Inverse modeling of GOSAT-retrieved ratios of total column CH4 and CO2 for 2009 and 2010, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5043–5062, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5043-2016, 2016.
Peylin, P., Law, R. M., Gurney, K. R., Chevallier, F., Jacobson, A. R., Maki, T., Niwa, Y., Patra, P. K., Peters, W., Rayner, P. J., Rödenbeck, C., van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., and Zhang, X.: Global atmospheric carbon budget: results from an ensemble of atmospheric CO2 inversions, Biogeosciences, 10, 6699–6720, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6699-2013, 2013.
Piao, S. L., Liu, Z., Wang, Y. L., Ciais, P., Yao, Y. T., Peng, S., Chevallier, F., Friedlingstein, P., Janssens, I. A., Penuelas, J., Sitch, S., and Wang, T.: On the causes of trends in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2, Glob. Change Biol., 24, 608–616, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13909, 2018.
Prather, M.: Surface CO2 variability from the stratosphere, or not, Dryad [data set], https://doi.org/10.7280/D1N10J, 2022.
Ray, E. A., Portmann, R. W., Yu, P. F., Daniel, J., Montzka, S. A., Dutton, G. S., Hall, B. D., Moore, F. L., and Rosenlof, K. H.: The influence of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on trace gas levels at the Earth's surface, Nat. Geosci., 13, 22, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0507-3, 2020.
Ruiz, D. J. and Prather, M. J.: From the middle stratosphere to the surface, using nitrous oxide to constrain the stratosphere–troposphere exchange of ozone, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2079–2093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, 2022.
Ruiz, D. J., Prather, M. J., Strahan, S. E., Thompson, R. L., Froidevaux, L., and Steenrod, S. D.: How atmospheric chemistry and transport drive surface variability of N2O and CFC-11, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD033979, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033979, 2021.
Tang, Q., Prather, M. J., Hsu, J., Ruiz, D. J., Cameron-Smith, P. J., Xie, S., and Golaz, J.-C.: Evaluation of the interactive stratospheric ozone (O3v2) module in the E3SM version 1 Earth system model, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1219–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1219-2021, 2021.
Trenberth, K. and National Center for Atmospheric
Research Staff (Eds.): The Climate Data Guide: Nino SST Indices
(Nino 1+2, 3, 3.4, 4; ONI and TNI), last modified: 21 January 2020,
https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/nino-sst-indices-nino-12-3-34-4-oni-and-tni
(last access: 1 June 2021), 2020.
Tung, K. K. and Yang, H.: Global QBO in circulation and ozone 2. A simple mechanistic model, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2708–2721, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<2708:Gqicao>2.0.Co;2, 1994.
Wang, K., Wang, Y. L., Wang, X. H., He, Y., Li, X. Y., Keeling, R. F., Ciais, P., Heimann, M., Peng, S. S., Chevallier, F., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Buermann, W., Arora, V. K., Haverd, V., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Poulter, B., Vuichard, N., Wiltshire, A., Zeng, N., Zhu, D., and Piao, S. L.: Causes of slowing-down seasonal CO2 amplitude at Mauna Loa, Glob. Change Biol., 26, 4462–4477, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15162, 2020.
Wang, K., Wang, X. H., Piao, S. L., Chevallier, F., Mao, J. F., Shi, X. Y., Huntingford, C., Bastos, A., Ciais, P., Xu, H., Keeling, R. F., Pacala, S. W., and Chen, A. P.: Unusual characteristics of the carbon cycle during the 2015–2016 El Nino, Glob. Change Biol., 27, 3798–3809, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15669, 2021.
Wenzel, S., Cox, P. M., Eyring, V., and Friedlingstein, P.: Projected land photosynthesis constrained by changes in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2, Nature, 538, 499–501, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature19772, 2016.
Zhao, F. and Zeng, N.: Continued increase in atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude in the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 423–439, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-423-2014, 2014.
Short summary
Atmospheric CO2 fluctuations point to changes in fossil fuel emissions plus natural and perturbed variations in the natural carbon cycle. One unstudied source of variability is the stratosphere, where the influx of aged CO2-depleted air can cause surface fluctuations. Using modeling and, separately, scaling the observed N2O variability, I find that stratosphere-driven surface variability in CO2 is not a significant uncertainty (at most 10 % of the observed interannual variability).
Atmospheric CO2 fluctuations point to changes in fossil fuel emissions plus natural and...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint