Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
Research article
 | 
05 Apr 2022
Research article |  | 05 Apr 2022

CO2 surface variability: from the stratosphere or not?

Michael J. Prather

Data sets

Surface CO2 variability from the stratosphere, or not M. Prather https://doi.org/10.7280/D1N10J

Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide Dry Air Mole Fractions from the NOAA GML Carbon Cycle Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network, 1997-2020, Version: 2021-07-30 E. J. Dlugokencky, A. M. Crotwell, J. W. Mund, M. J. Crotwell, and K. W. Thoning https://doi.org/10.15138/53g1-x417

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dry Air Mole Fractions from the NOAA GML Carbon Cycle Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network, 1968-2020, Version: 2021-07-30 E. J. Dlugokencky, J. W. Mund, A. M. Crotwell, M. J. Crotwell, and K. W. Thoning https://doi.org/10.15138/wkgj-f215

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Short summary
Atmospheric CO2 fluctuations point to changes in fossil fuel emissions plus natural and perturbed variations in the natural carbon cycle. One unstudied source of variability is the stratosphere, where the influx of aged CO2-depleted air can cause surface fluctuations. Using modeling and, separately, scaling the observed N2O variability, I find that stratosphere-driven surface variability in CO2 is not a significant uncertainty (at most 10 % of the observed interannual variability).
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