Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-439-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-439-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
Research article
 | 
10 Mar 2022
Research article |  | 10 Mar 2022

Quantifying memory and persistence in the atmosphere–land and ocean carbon system

Matthias Jonas, Rostyslav Bun, Iryna Ryzha, and Piotr Żebrowski

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Latest update: 03 Nov 2025
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Short summary
We interpret carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning and land use as a global stress–strain experiment to reflect the overall behavior of the atmosphere–land and ocean system in response to increasing CO2 emissions since 1850. The system has been trapped progressively in terms of persistence, while its ability to build up memory has been reduced. We expect system failures globally well before 2050 if the current trend in emissions is not reversed immediately and sustainably.
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