Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 Jan 2022
Research article |
| 31 Jan 2022
| 31 Jan 2022
Weakened impact of the Atlantic Niño on the future equatorial Atlantic and Guinea Coast rainfall
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Hugues Goosse
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Thierry Fichefet
Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Université catholique de Louvain (UCLouvain), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Fred Kucharski
Earth System Physics Section, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Sustained weakening in the Atlantic Niño/Niña variability post 2100 X. Mei et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae49a1
- Disentangling the impact of Atlantic Niño on sea-air CO2 flux S. Koseki et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38718-9
- High and low-frequency climate modes associated with sub-seasonal sea surface temperature variability in the Gulf of Guinea C. Ibebuchi & O. Obarein https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05389-z
- Assessing ENSO as a Driver of Climate Variability in Cameroon from 1981 To 2023: A Zonal Disaggregation and Composite Based Analysis across Agroecological Zones B. Benoir et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00848-z
- Suppressed Atlantic Niño/Niña variability under greenhouse warming Y. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01444-z
- Exploring uncertainty in dynamical future changes in Sahel precipitation: the extratropical influence P. Monerie et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07835-0
- Recent significant drying in Central Congo Basin linked to weakened Walker circulation and warmer Atlantic S. Wongchuig et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01225-3
- Sea level variability in Gulf of Guinea from satellite altimetry F. Kemgang Ghomsi et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-55170-x
- A Review of the arctic-West African monsoon nexus: How arctic sea ice decline influences monsoon system A. Datti et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05255-4
- Enhanced Moisture Uptake Drives Projected Increases in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Precipitation A. Pérez-Alarcón et al. https://doi.org/10.34133/olar.0145
- Decadal Variability of Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer over the Equatorial Atlantic and Its Impact on West African Rainfall M. Thioune et al. https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2026.163028
- Weakening of the Atlantic Niño variability under global warming L. Crespo et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01453-y
- Future changes in the mean and variability of extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast and role of the Atlantic equatorial mode K. Worou et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023
- Uncertainty on Atlantic Niño Variability Projections A. Prigent et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105000
- The Atlantic Meridional Mode and Associated Wind–SST Relationship in the CMIP6 Models F. Xia et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020359
- The pluvial equator over Africa: longitudinal variability, multi-modality, and climate-mode controls, 1981–2024 T. Kabanda https://doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2026.2651141
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Sustained weakening in the Atlantic Niño/Niña variability post 2100 X. Mei et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae49a1
- Disentangling the impact of Atlantic Niño on sea-air CO2 flux S. Koseki et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38718-9
- High and low-frequency climate modes associated with sub-seasonal sea surface temperature variability in the Gulf of Guinea C. Ibebuchi & O. Obarein https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05389-z
- Assessing ENSO as a Driver of Climate Variability in Cameroon from 1981 To 2023: A Zonal Disaggregation and Composite Based Analysis across Agroecological Zones B. Benoir et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00848-z
- Suppressed Atlantic Niño/Niña variability under greenhouse warming Y. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01444-z
- Exploring uncertainty in dynamical future changes in Sahel precipitation: the extratropical influence P. Monerie et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07835-0
- Recent significant drying in Central Congo Basin linked to weakened Walker circulation and warmer Atlantic S. Wongchuig et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01225-3
- Sea level variability in Gulf of Guinea from satellite altimetry F. Kemgang Ghomsi et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-55170-x
- A Review of the arctic-West African monsoon nexus: How arctic sea ice decline influences monsoon system A. Datti et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05255-4
- Enhanced Moisture Uptake Drives Projected Increases in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Precipitation A. Pérez-Alarcón et al. https://doi.org/10.34133/olar.0145
- Decadal Variability of Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer over the Equatorial Atlantic and Its Impact on West African Rainfall M. Thioune et al. https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2026.163028
- Weakening of the Atlantic Niño variability under global warming L. Crespo et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01453-y
- Future changes in the mean and variability of extreme rainfall indices over the Guinea coast and role of the Atlantic equatorial mode K. Worou et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-511-2023
- Uncertainty on Atlantic Niño Variability Projections A. Prigent et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105000
- The Atlantic Meridional Mode and Associated Wind–SST Relationship in the CMIP6 Models F. Xia et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020359
- The pluvial equator over Africa: longitudinal variability, multi-modality, and climate-mode controls, 1981–2024 T. Kabanda https://doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2026.2651141
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 13 Jun 2026
Short summary
Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño is reasonably well simulated by 24 climate models out of 31, for the present-day conditions. In a warmer climate, general circulation models project a gradual decrease with time of the rainfall magnitude associated with the Atlantic Niño for the 2015–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods. There is a higher confidence in these changes over the equatorial Atlantic than over the Guinea Coast.
Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño...
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