Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
24 Nov 2022
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 24 Nov 2022
| 24 Nov 2022
Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Paul D. L. Ritchie
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Peter M. Cox
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
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35 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model Y. Moustakis et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-52508-x
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- RECCAP2 Future Component: Consistency and Potential for Regional Assessment to Constrain Global Projections C. Jones et al. 10.1029/2023AV001024
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- Flower production decreases with warmer and more humid atmospheric conditions in a western Amazonian forest J. Vleminckx et al. 10.1111/nph.19388
- Faster dieback of rainforests altering tropical carbon sinks under climate change D. Nath et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00793-0
- The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation N. Bochow & N. Boers 10.1126/sciadv.add9973
- Resilience Indicators for Tropical Rainforests in a Dynamic Vegetation Model S. Bathiany et al. 10.1111/gcb.17613
- Fire weakens land carbon sinks before 1.5 °C C. Burton et al. 10.1038/s41561-024-01554-7
- Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects H. Douville et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175299
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- A potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may stabilise eastern Amazonian rainforests D. Nian et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-01123-7
- The impacts of modelling prescribed vs. dynamic land cover in a high-CO2 future scenario – greening of the Arctic and Amazonian dieback S. Kou-Giesbrecht et al. 10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024
- Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society T. Stocker et al. 10.1007/s10712-024-09844-w
- Measuring tropical rainforest resilience under non-Gaussian disturbances V. Benson et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad1e80
- Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models I. Parry et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022
- Fire may prevent future Amazon forest recovery after large-scale deforestation M. Drüke et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00911-5
- Increases in the temperature seasonal cycle indicate long-term drying trends in Amazonia P. Ritchie et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00528-0
- Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points D. Armstrong McKay et al. 10.1126/science.abn7950
31 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Species distribution modeling predicts different distribution alterations in two neotropical psittacidae species under climate change scenarios T. de França et al. 10.1007/s43388-025-00241-4
- Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world M. Collins et al. 10.3389/fsci.2024.1340323
- A multi-species corridor between the Andean Amazonian and Amazon floodplain landscapes: prioritizing ecological connectivity areas for jaguar and threatened ungulates in the north-eastern of South America F. Mosquera-Guerra et al. 10.1007/s44353-025-00032-4
- Emergent constraints on future Amazon climate change-induced carbon loss using past global warming trends I. Melnikova et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-51474-8
- High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw J. Deutloff et al. 10.5194/esd-16-565-2025
- Future precipitation projections for Brazil and tropical South America from a convection-permitting climate simulation R. Kahana et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1419704
- Weaker Atlantic overturning circulation increases the vulnerability of northern Amazon forests T. Akabane et al. 10.1038/s41561-024-01578-z
- Rainfall seasonality dominates critical precipitation threshold for the Amazon forest in the LPJmL vegetation model D. Nian et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174378
- Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model Y. Moustakis et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-52508-x
- Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming C. Singh et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024
- Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1480208
- Observation-inferred resilience loss of the Amazon rainforest possibly due to internal climate variability R. Grodofzig et al. 10.5194/esd-15-913-2024
- RECCAP2 Future Component: Consistency and Potential for Regional Assessment to Constrain Global Projections C. Jones et al. 10.1029/2023AV001024
- Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene A. Ordonez et al. 10.1098/rstb.2023.0022
- Vapor pressure deficit and temperature variability drive future changes to carbon sink stability in China’s terrestrial ecosystems Z. Zhou et al. 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1518578
- Investigating Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Over India Using Multimodel Simulations of Gross Primary Productivity and Satellite‐Based Biophysical Product G. Uchale et al. 10.1029/2023JG007468
- Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system B. Flores et al. 10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0
- Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020 T. Rosan et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0
- Flower production decreases with warmer and more humid atmospheric conditions in a western Amazonian forest J. Vleminckx et al. 10.1111/nph.19388
- Faster dieback of rainforests altering tropical carbon sinks under climate change D. Nath et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00793-0
- The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation N. Bochow & N. Boers 10.1126/sciadv.add9973
- Resilience Indicators for Tropical Rainforests in a Dynamic Vegetation Model S. Bathiany et al. 10.1111/gcb.17613
- Fire weakens land carbon sinks before 1.5 °C C. Burton et al. 10.1038/s41561-024-01554-7
- Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects H. Douville et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175299
- Limited Mitigation Potential of Forestation Under a High Emissions Scenario: Results From Multi‐Model and Single Model Ensembles T. Loughran et al. 10.1029/2023JG007605
- Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024
- Biochar effects on NTFP-enriched secondary forest growth and soil properties in Amazonian Ecuador P. Ríos Guayasamín et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119068
- A potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may stabilise eastern Amazonian rainforests D. Nian et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-01123-7
- The impacts of modelling prescribed vs. dynamic land cover in a high-CO2 future scenario – greening of the Arctic and Amazonian dieback S. Kou-Giesbrecht et al. 10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024
- Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society T. Stocker et al. 10.1007/s10712-024-09844-w
- Measuring tropical rainforest resilience under non-Gaussian disturbances V. Benson et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad1e80
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models I. Parry et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022
- Fire may prevent future Amazon forest recovery after large-scale deforestation M. Drüke et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00911-5
- Increases in the temperature seasonal cycle indicate long-term drying trends in Amazonia P. Ritchie et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00528-0
- Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points D. Armstrong McKay et al. 10.1126/science.abn7950
Latest update: 29 May 2025
Chief editor
The health of the amazon ecosystem is a key indicator of the health of our planet. Hence, the editor feels that this paper will attract the attention of a broad audience and the media.
The health of the amazon ecosystem is a key indicator of the health of our planet. Hence, the...
Short summary
Despite little evidence of regional Amazon rainforest dieback, many localised abrupt dieback events are observed in the latest state-of-the-art global climate models under anthropogenic climate change. The detected dieback events would still cause severe consequences for local communities and ecosystems. This study suggests that 7 ± 5 % of the northern South America region would experience abrupt downward shifts in vegetation carbon for every degree of global warming past 1.5 °C.
Despite little evidence of regional Amazon rainforest dieback, many localised abrupt dieback...
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